2026 PLAYERS Championship Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC Sawgrass

It’s one of the biggest golf weeks of the year on the PGA Tour. THE PLAYERS Championship odds are the next stop for bettors at TPC Sawgrass. Compare THE PLAYERS odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Tommy Fleetwood project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Finally, my favorite event of the season is here. You could say I like this event… better than most.

The 2026 Players Championship at famed TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, marks the fourth signature event of the year, with none more significant thus far. While last week’s signature event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational featured a top-heavy collective of all the tour’s best, this week will step it up a notch further, with the top 123 on the PGA Tour teeing it up.

I’ve been fortunate to play TPC Sawgrass — in 2021 — and I always enjoy watching the game’s best navigate a familiar course.

Safely on the center of the green, spun back to second cut, chip to 12 feet, bogey. I am satisfied. pic.twitter.com/cwcL75UUUG

— John Haslbauer (@PGATout) November 8, 2021

TPC Sawgrass features water hazards on 17 holes. Pete Dye’s most famous design will bait players into taking on these hazards. The constant threat of hazards has resulted in incredibly volatile leaderboards. Of the top 20 players in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, only three have avoided missing the cut at this event in each of the previous four years (Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, and Sepp Straka). With that in mind, embracing the volatility, diversifying exposure, and identifying low-owned pivot plays for DFS is a good idea.

Here’s a full look at everything to expect from 2026 Players Championship odds.

2026 OPENING PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete Players Championship outright odds at legal US sportsbooks. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-to-1.

IS MARCH MAJOR?

Always renowned for hosting a major-caliber field, THE PLAYERS’ palpable stakes and historical context have earned the distinction of “The Fifth Major.” The Brian Rolapp administration has added fuel to that campaign fire this year, declaring, “March Is Major”.

The burning question we’ll hear throughout this week is this: Should March be Major? Should the beloved PLAYERS Championship, always affectionately referred to as the “Fifth Major” officially be anointed as one? Let’s unpack that a bit.

THE PLAYERS’ claim to Major-worthy recognition lies in the strength of its field. More specifically, on the pretense that all of the best players in the world of golf aspire to play on the PGA TOUR, have earned their way onto the PGA TOUR, and have one opportunity each year to play against the entire yearly membership. Some of that luster feels lost on this event now, as a tournament known for hosting the convergence of all of the game’s best in one place will not do so again in 2026. The absence of Sawgrass stalwarts like Jon Rahm, Cam Smith, Bryson DeChambeau, and Sergio Garcia has never been more palpable. It feels wrong to designate it as a fifth major until LIV players find a path back to this event.

Furthermore, the field size has dropped to just 123 in 2026, the tightest in tournament history. That’s down from the 144 field size from 2022-2025, and 154 field size from 2021 and prior. That is head-scratchingly poor optics in the same year as declaring “March Is Major”. The PGA TOUR continues to trend in the wrong direction, reducing field sizes in the events that matter most.

Can March Be Major?

If THE PLAYERS has any claim as a Fifth Major, it is in the strength and depth of its field. Get back to 154, and invite all of the best players regardless of the Tour they play for. It would have a larger field than The Masters. It would remove the variance of lesser players open qualifying like in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. And it would not have to worry about PGA professionals taking up a chunk of the field. It would be the only event top-to-bottom that features 154 of the undisputed best golfers competing against one another.

I understand daylight is against us in a March Florida event when stacking the field to a full 154, but here’s a thought: actually implement the shot clock! Be the one event that encourages its 200,000+ patrons to count down when a player is behind and on the clock. Establish an identity and make these players even more uncomfortable. That’s how you build new drama and elevate yourself to Major-like pressure.

The blueprint to becoming a Major-winner in the modern era has been homogenized by the emergence of technology. In the three U.S.-based Major events, tee boxes continue to be pushed back, and rough continues to be grown out. A Major-caliber player looks like the Rory McIlroys, Bryson DeChambeaus, Jon Rahms, and Brooks Koepkas of the world who can overpower gargantuan golf courses and hit higher-lofted approach shots into difficult-to-hold greens more consistently than their opponents.

There is something to be said about introducing an “every man’s” course like TPC Sawgrass into the yearly major rotation. A course whose constant lateral hazards and inconsistent undulations neutralize pure bombers’ ability to overpower it with brute force. A course that takes you to the drop zone for misfires, not the trampled down rough in the galleries, or to free TIO relief. A course that makes you think twice before pulling driver on every tee box and requires the finesse of varying trajectories and shot shapes.

We can’t just decide to make THE PLAYERS a Major. But with some slight tweaks, there is a pathway to make this event the undeniable greatest test of the year. When players start to say, “This is the hardest event to win”, then it can lay claim as The Fifth Major.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

On the bright side, there is still no shortage of star power to headline in Ponte Vedra Beach, and while the PGA Tour “stars” have been slower to win events this year, they seemingly all enter in great all-around form. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler will headline as the favorites and past champions for the second consecutive week. World No. 1 and World No. 2 will each attempt to become the first-ever three-time winners of THE PLAYERS.

Other elite talents like Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, and  Patrick Cantlay enter this field of 123 in top form. Brooks Koepka also headlines in his first Signature Event start of the season, qualifying by merit of his 2023 PGA Championship win. The Florida native started to look like his former self with a T9 in his most recent start at the Cognizant Classic.

Rory McIlroy is your defending champion, defeating J.J. Spaun in a Monday playoff last year. Other past champions returning to tee it up this week include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Adam Scott. Last year, Rory McIlroy joined Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods and Davis Love III as the only multi-winners in THE PLAYERS’ history, demonstrating the volatility of this event. 

INTRODUCTION TO TPC SAWGRASS

Like the other Pete Dye designs we see on tour, TPC Sawgrass is a positional course. Its persistent water hazards, quirky green-side bunkers, and undulations mitigate the advantage of longer hitters, instead rewarding players with an elite approach and short game.

Once remnant swamp land, the foundational property for TPC Sawgrass was purchased in the 1970s for $1. The goal was to transform it into a state-of-the-art tournament golf course to host THE PLAYERS Championship. Today, we see a modern marvel and the quintessential tournament stadium course with some of the most pristine manicuring in golf. The par-3 17th island green is perhaps the most recognizable hole in all of golf. The final three holes are my favorite closing stretch of any course on the PGA Tour and lay the stage for a late charge from chasers while bringing bogey into play with nervy shots over water from those trying to preserve a lead.

In a day and age when golf courses continue to act on the misconception that fans want to see more birdies, TPC Sawgrass is a consummate example of what we truly wish to: two-shot swing holes where great shots are rewarded with birdie-or-better opportunities and poor ones bring bogey-or-worse into play. 

Like the other courses in the Florida Swing, TPC Sawgrass is highly susceptible to inclement weather. The 2022 event virtually wiped half of the field out of contention by creating a severe advantage for players with morning-afternoon tee times. I will still remember Cam Smith’s clutch shot-making down the stretch, which included one of the most daring attacks of the Sunday pin on 17 in tournament history, even if the tour is intent on wiping that moment out of its flagship event’s history since he promptly left for LIV. Monitoring the weather closely this week will be key to seeing if wave advantages emerge.

The stakes don’t get much higher than a purse of $25 million (top prize $4.5 million) in one of the most challenging fields, with an electric crowd. At par 72, just under 7,200 yards, TPC Sawgrass rewards four days of well-rounded play. We’ve seen bombers like Rory McIlroy and Jason Day win as often as shorter specialists like Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, and Webb Simpson. The playoff between Rory McIlory and J.J. Spaun perfectly encapsulates the variety of play styles that can be rewarded at TPC Sawgrass. 

Creativity and deft touch around the greens would seem the common through-line when looking down the list of annual contenders. Runoffs around the greens will give players more options to use their creativity, with many “Texas Wedges” drawn from these tight lies.

EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

You’ll be hard-pressed to land on any player with conviction based on course history alone. Sepp Straka and Corey Conners  are the only players in this week’s field who have finished in the top 16 in the last two years. Notables like Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, and Schauffele have all missed the cut here multiple times over the last six years. Scottie Scheffler’s T20 finish here in 2025 was the worst result he’s posted in the year to pass since.

Looking at the favorites, Scheffler and McIlroy have each won THE PLAYERS twice over the previous six years but do not have another finish inside the top 20, aside from their wins.

Despite the star power of winners here over recent years, just as many unheralded players have produced top-five finishes. Tom Hoge, Danny Walker, David Lingmerth, Anirban Lahiri, Jim Furyk, Jhonattan Vegas, Eddie Pepperell, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Jason Dufner, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Chappell, Colt Knost and Ken Duke each have T6 finishes dating back to 2016. We should expect to see some parity on the leaderboard come Sunday. Longshot bets are still plenty viable for THE PLAYERS Championship odds.

Others Excelling At THE PLAYERS

The top 10 in course history at TPC Sawgrass consist of Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Tom Hoge, and Aaron Rai. This illustrates a trend of skilled ball-strikers and veteran course managers with proven results in high-pressure events.

Eight players in this field have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, and Brian Harman.

Eight players have avoided missing the cut in four consecutive trips to THE PLAYERS: Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Tom Hohe, Denny McCarthy, Sungjae Im, and Joel Dahmen. Lowry, Hoge, McCarthy, and Im are the only players to have made it through the cut in each of the last five contests.  Daniel Berger owns the longest active made cut streak at TPC Sawgrass (7).

Course Comps

Shorter Pete Dye courses correlate more than any other architect’s. For the most part, Dye courses share the same philosophy: force strategic, positional tee shots. Penalize wayward approaches with complex bunkering and tricky greenside runoffs. The top 10 players in SG: T2G on Pete Dye courses are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, and Tommy Fleetwood.

Unpacking those Dye courses, Harbour Town, Stadium Course, and TPC River Highlands most closely resemble the layouts and design at TPC Sawgrass. Over the years, they have produced overlapping leaderboards of players who are accurate off the tee, possess strong irons, and show crafty around-the-green play. Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, and Matt Kuchar are approach specialists with crossover wins at THE PLAYERS and these comp courses. Scheffler has, hilariously, won at all four courses over the last two years.

Cam Smith’s 2022 win furthered an interesting trend of crossover winners between this event and the Sony Open. Four of the last eight Sony Open winners are Players champions. The stakes and field strength of the two events could not be more different. However, both courses share exposure to gusting winds and emphasize positional tee shots on a Bermuda layout. If this trend continues, Chris Gotterup, Nick Taylor, and Hideki Matsuyama may emerge as top value picks this week.

I’m also looking closely at Sedgefield CC and Innisbrook (Copperhead) as other Bermuda courses that favor a similar profile. TPC Scottsdale features a similar assortment of risk-reward holes with abundant hazards. It has seen consistent success in recent years from players like Simpson, Matsuyama, Thomas, Kuchar, and Rickie Fowler. Finally, on a more secondary basis, East Lake and Colonial CC are worth referencing for similar positional play and moderate scoring difficulty.

Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Mac Meissner, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland are the top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2026 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

• SG: OTT / SG: OTT (positional courses)
• Fairway Percentage / Average Distance From Fairway Edge / Fairway Bunker Avoidance
• SG: APP 
• Birdies or better gained
• Bogey avoidance
• SG: ARG / scrambling
• Par 4: 450-500
• Par-5 scoring
• SG: putting (L36, Bermuda)
• SG: T2G (Pete Dye courses)
• SG: ball striking (<7,200 Yard Courses)
• Course history and comp course history

As usual with Pete Dye courses, distance is a nice bonus at TPC Sawgrass. Many neighboring water hazards and tight tree lines take the driver out of hand. With that in mind, I’m not looking too closely at driving accuracy. The field should play inherently more accurately when laying up off the tee. Players hit fairways at an above-average rate of 61% at TPC Sawgrass to support that claim.

Even still, I’ll look for players who excel in total driving to position themselves well and avoid the penalty areas. The top 10 players in weighted strokes off the tee (SG: OTT, SG: OTT on comp positional courses, fairways gained, fairway bunker avoidance, and the average distance from the edge of the fairway) are Michael Brennan, Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Joel Dahmen, Harris English, Ryo Hisatsune, Davis Thompson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Austin Smotherman, Kevin Yu, and Collin Morikawa.

As a workaround to SG: OTT to approximate tee shots on courses with a high volume of forced layups, I’m looking for players who rate well in SG: tee-to-green on courses under 7,200 yards. The top 10 from this category are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, and Austin Smotherman.

While distance doesn’t rule, it will help on the four par 5s. Those with plus distance can reach all four in two. The top 10 players in par-5 scoring entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Austin Smotherman, Tommy Fleetwood, Andrew Novak, J.J. Spaun, S.H. Kim, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Cameron Young.

Approach & Short Game

THE PLAYERS has bred a diverse cast of winning profiles over the years, but the common theme seems to be “fairway to green.” The best players on approach and around the green have stockpiled wins. Unsurprisingly, a player like Scottie Scheffler has managed to assert his dominance here more than any other course on tour. I’m emphasizing the best iron and wedge players with the medley of grass types on these over-seeded greens and several forced layups off the tee.

The top 10 players in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds are Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland, Austin Smotherman, Scottie Scheffler, Ryan Gerard, Nicolai Hojgaard, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, and Chris Kirk. The top 10 players in SG: ARG over the same span are Keegan Bradley, Stephan Jaeger, Hideki Matsuyama, Harry Hall, Taylor Moore, Jason Day, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mackenzie Hughes, Scottie Scheffler, and Tommy Fleetwood.

To wrap up, this week’s ideal player should be in the top 50 in SG: APP, SG: ARG, comp course history, and above average in weighted driving and par-5 scoring. Nine players fit that bill: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay, J.J. Spaun, and Aaron Rai.

Correlation And TPC Sawgrass

Looking at the stat correlations this week for TPC Sawgrass, there are some notable shifts compared to the tour average. Here, P4: 450-500, par-5 scoring, and par-3 scoring each fall outside the top 10. Instead, Good Drive Percentage and total Par-4 Scoring make the most notable vital jumps. Outside the top 10, we also see notable jumps in the importance of SG: P 15-20 ft and SG: ARG. Meanwhile, sand saves gained an approximately 200+ boost in importance.

There are just seven players who rate above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for TPC Sawgrass: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, and Maverick McNealy.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: MATT FITZPATRICK

THE PLAYERS may not be a Major, but it certainly it gets the major treatment from sportsbooks, with future odds available year-round. As I assess the odds board Sunday morning of PLAYERS week, Fitzpatrick at 46-1 offers far and away the greatest value.

THE PLAYERS is known for producing an eclectic leaderboard full of diverse and unexpected contenders each year. As “longshot-friendly” as it may be in the Each Way market, the winner has ultimately proven to be the one most battle tested in the arena. Since moving back to March in 2019, the last six winners of THE PLAYERS are: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Scottie Scheffler, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. All Major champions.

Fitzpatrick checks the Major pedigree box, winning the U.S. Open in 2022. As a four-time Ryder Cupper, he’s no stranger to playing in the arena either.

Form is crucial coming into TPC Sawgrass as well. With water threatening on 17 holes, you need to be in complete control of your game coming in to avoid any major mistakes. Fitzpatrick won the DP World Tour’s ultimate prize, the 2025 DP World Tour Championship last November, and hasn’t looked back since. Over the four months that have passed since that victory, he ranks top-7 in this field in SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: Approach, and SG: Ball Striking.

From a course fit standpoint, Fitzpatrick has made a career out of scoring on Pete Dye courses. He has two top-10 finishes under his belt at TPC Sawgrass (2021, 2024), and a 2023 win at his favorite course, Harbour Town Golf Links.

Fitzpatrick checks every single box for me. He has the recent form, the course history, the course fit, he’s atmosphere-tested, and his odds present the greatest value I can find on the board at present. He will be a fixture on my betting card TPC Sawgrass this week.

2026 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2026 PLAYERS Championship odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, comp course history, SG: OTT (<7,200 courses), and Fairway Percentage, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: P (L36, Bermuda), par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and birdies or better gained.

Model Favorites

World No. 1 and two-time PLAYERS champion, Scottie Scheffler is the top man in my model yet again, to no surprise. Scheffler has not had his best stuff in 2026, but his “B-game” has still been good enough for a win and no finishes worse than T12 over his first five starts of 2026. He will be the man to beat in Ponte Vedra Beach this week.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, and Mac Meissner. 

I have not placed any future bets on THE PLAYERS to date. Still, with initial odds already out, I see myself gravitating toward a card with exposure to at least 3+ of Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sepp Straka, or Min Woo Lee. I’ll likely wait for the weather forecast to settle in and for the odds to readjust on Monday before locking in my 2026 PLAYERS Championship bets.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2026 PLAYERS Championship bets!

2026 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS TABLE

Bet on any golfer by clicking on THE PLAYERS Championship odds in the table below:

Golfers with over 100-1 odds can be found above when full odds come out on Monday.