2026 Sony Open Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets & Picks, Including Matt McCarty
The 2026 PGA Tour season continues to its second leg in Hawaii. Next stop is the 2026 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Find Sony Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Collin Morikawa, Ben Griffin, and Russell Henley project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
After an extended hiatus, the 2026 PGA TOUR season makes its much-anticipated return this week. The Hawaii Swing has been reduced to a one-stop shop after The Sentry at Kapalua was deemed unplayable. Instead, we skip to a familiar event, the Sony Open at Waialae CC, to host the inaugural tournament for the 2026 season.
Waialae CC is by all accounts a quintessential plodder’s paradise, rewarding accurate ball striking with little advantage to be gained through distance off-the-tee. The newly grown-out rough on the Seth Raynor-designed property only accentuates the importance of players keeping their ball on the fairway. Approach play from 125-200 yards and Bermuda putting are consistent characteristics across contenders at this event.
Without further ado, let’s run through the key facts and info about Waialae Country Club ahead of betting 2026 Sony Open odds.
2026 Sony Open Odds: The Favorites
Here are the outright winner odds for the Sony Open at golf betting sites this week. Click on the odds in the table to bet now. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
Sony Open Odds: The Field At A Glance
A total of 120 players make up the field for the Sony Open, notably down from its usual quota of 144 players. While there’s no doubt golf fans would have loved to see the game’s best kick off the new season at Kapalua, the silver lining lies in a bevy of over-anxious stars looking to get their year started. A decorated list of four OWGR top-10 headliners (Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, and Ben Griffin) makes this out to be one of the highest-concentrated field of top-tier players in the event’s history. Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, and Corey Conners also figure to contend in the season’s first event.
New up-and-comers Neal Shipley, Johnny Keefer, Michael Brennan, and Kristoffer Reitan debut as headliners of the 2026 PGA TOUR rookie class. That creates a very interesting dynamic from a betting perspective. Bettors need to decide whether to abandon course history in favor of recent form. The venue has proven very sticky for those who have cracked the code at Waialae in previous years.
Nick Taylor returns to defend his 2025 Sony Open victory, edging past Nico Echavarria in a playoff. Of note, the Sony Open has been decided in a playoff in three of the last four years. Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, and Zach Johnson round out the list of former champions in the field this week.
Introduction To Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club is a short resort course originally designed by Seth Raynor in 1927. It features Bermuda grass throughout. Though susceptible to coastal rainfall, the course tends to play firm and fast in both the fairways and greens. Runouts contribute to lower-than-average Driving Accuracy and Greens-In-Regulation percentages. In 2023, the rough was grown out from its usual average of 2.25 inches up to 3 inches. As a result, low-scoring trends were held in check. The field median score (-9) dipped to its lowest since 2018.
Waialae features persistent doglegs and tight tree lines, historically neutralizing any advantage for longer hitters off the tee. Instead, the course forces driving accuracy and class short game. These tightened grounds should breed a more reasonable winning score in the high teens to low 20s under par.
True to Hawaii golf architecture, Waialae is exposed to the coast, and the severity of the wind will be worth monitoring throughout the week. If the weather continues to stay as calm as it has in the last few years, it will be easy to see scores push beyond -20. However, if sustained winds pick up as they did for Cam Smith’s playoff win over Brendan Steele in 2020, this course can become a grind quickly.
Course History And Course Comps
According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second to only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. This is as good a week as any to factor past results into your research process. In what has typically been the first event of the year for a majority of the field year over year, it’s fair to connect repeated history at the Sony Open with players’ preparation. The field at large will be shaking off the rust in their first competitive rounds since November.
Over the last five years, 11 players recorded multiple top-15 finishes at the Sony Open. That list includes Corey Conners, J.J. Spaun, Nico Echavarria, Eric Cole, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Keith Mitchell, Nick Taylor, Keegan Bradley, and Patton Kizzire
Twelve players avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Harry Hall, Nico Echavarria, Maverick McNealy, Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Brice Garnett, Nick Taylor, and Adam Svensson.
Though still in search of his first career win at the Sony Open, Webb Simpson has been a mainstay atop the leaderboard throughout his career. With nine top-20 finishes over 15 appearances, Simpson leads the way in terms of total strokes gained at Waialae CC.
After Simpson, the rest of the top 10 in terms of total strokes gained at Waialae Country Club include Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Keith Mitchell, Nico Echavarria, and Matthieu Pavon.
Comp Courses
If you think of any courses where players like Webb Simpson or Kevin Kisner have played well, you’ve identified the top comp courses to Waialae CC.
Sedgefield CC, Sea Island, and Harbour Town are the best comp courses that come to mind. Each serves as shorter positional courses with Bermuda grass throughout and has favored more accurate hitters with strong short games.
El Camaleon, Port Royal, Innisbrook Resort, Colonial CC, and Pebble Beach also fit the bill, sharing a similar profile as wind-exposed coastal courses with relatively easy scoring.
The top players in comp course history over the last 36 rounds are Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Mac Meissner, Ben Griffin, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Nico Echavarria, and Keith Mitchell.
Key States To Consider For 2026 Sony Open Odds
- SG: APP / Prox 125-200
- Driving Accuracy / SG: OTT (<7,200 Yard Courses)
- Par-4 Scoring: 400-500
- GIRs Gained
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: ARG
- SG: P (Bermuda)
- Course & Comp Course History
Waialae CC’s concentration of 10 par 4s between 400-500 yards makes for a repeatable list of contenders. The top 10 players from this range predominantly displayed strong showings at the Sony Open: Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Daniel Berger, Austin Eckroat, Russell Henley, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley, and Keith Mitchell.
This concentration of par 4s brings about 67% of approach shots funneled between 125-200 yards. That’s also been a proven indicator for contenders at this event. The top-10 from this range are: Rico Hoey, Si Woo Kim, Mark Hubbard, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Matt McCarty, Alex Smalley, Luke Clanton, and Kurt Kitayama.
Short Game tends to be one of the more inconsequential stats on TOUR. However, it’s key here. I’ll be dialing up that stat category much higher in my model than most other weeks. Considering the more grown-out rough, this is especially the case. The top 10 players in SG: Short Game are Harry Hall, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Patton Kizzire, Takumi Kanaya, Adrien Saddier, Matt McCarty, Peter Malnati, and Eric Cole.
Driving Distance And Waialae Success
There’s been no correlation between driving distance and success at Waialae CC. Given the shorter layout, most players have instead found success dialing it back off the tee to prioritize playing out of the fairway for controlled approaches. Players are hitting these fairways slightly below tour average, which gives an advantage to the more accurate players off the tee. The top 10 players in Driving Accuracy are Takumi Kanaya, Chandler Blanchet, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Seamus Power, and Nick Taylor.
Moreover, players who rank towards the top in terms of SG: OTT on comp short courses under 7,200 yards should indicate those who can best position themselves on Waialae’s layout. The top 10 in this category include Rico Hoey, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, J.J. Spaun, Austin Eckroat, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Kurt Kitayama, Luke Clanton, and Corey Conners.
Wrapping this altogether, the ideal player for this week should rank above average in SG: APP, Prox: 125-200, Par-4: 400-500, Fairways Gained, SG: OTT (<7,200 Yard Courses), SG: ARG, and SG: P (Bermuda). Just 8 players fit each of those criteria: J.J. Spaun, Austin Eckroat, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Neal Shipley, and Michael Kim.
Correlated Stats
Looking at the correlation charts, there is a notable drop-off in the importance of Par-5 Scoring at the Sony Open. There are only two on the scorecard, and both are easily reachable in two for the full field. We also see the concentrated hole ranges of 400-450 and 450-500 make a notable jump into the top 10, and a corresponding jump in the importance of Proximity 150-175 & 175-200.
Distance stats like Driving Distance and Proximity 200+ have not correlated with success here in recent years.
Taking each of the above key categories into account, 9 players rate above average in all 15 top categories: Russell Henley, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, J.J. Spaun, Kurt Kitayama, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Mac Meissner, and Matt McCarty.
Player Spotlight: Matt McCarty
An up-and-coming talent on my shortlist of players to watch in 2026, Matt McCarty continues to fly under the radar despite showing all of the signs we look for in a bourgeoning young star on the PGA TOUR. After dominating the Korn Ferry Tour with three wins in 2024, he showed he was ready for the highest level of competition by winning his second career PGA TOUR start at the 2024 Black Desert Championship.
The ability to perform at the highest level the very first time seeing a course is especially important to me when looking for players who can step on the gas in the very first event of the season. McCarty was a top-20 in his debuts at both THE PLAYERS Championship and The Masters last season, so there’s no question about his ability to perform on the biggest stages. With a full PGA TOUR season under his belt now, I expect McCarty to improve considerably in his second look at Waialae CC this week.
Acclimating to the time zone difference in Hawaii has been a deterrent for young players on the Hawaii swing in the past, but McCarty has shown his game travels across the globe. He finished T14 at the Baycurrent Classic in Japan, narrowly missing a final round 59. He closed 2025 on a stretch of four top-15 finishes over his last five starts, and looks poised for a breakout sophomore campaign in 2026.
2026 Sony Open: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2026 Sony Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Model Results & Breakdown
For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Course & Comp Course History, and Prox: 125-200, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: ARG, Bogey Avoidance, SG: OTT (<7,200 Courses), Fairways Gained, SG: P (L36 + Bermuda), and Par 4: 400-500.
Model Favorites
It would not be Sony Open week without seeing Russell Henley’s name atop the model. Henley has had countless close calls at Waialae CC since picking up his first career PGA Tour win here 13 years ago, including four top-11 finishes over the last five years. He ranks top five in Comp Course History, Driving Accuracy, and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds and figures to find himself in the mix yet again this week.
After Henley, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Ben Griffin, Mac Meissner, Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Rai, Collin Morikawa, Nico Echavarria, and Maverick McNealy.
When odds are released Monday, I’ll look to start my card with Robert MacIntyre, Matt McCarty, and Daniel Berger, depending on their prices.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2026 Sony Open odds!
