RBC Canadian Open Odds & Betting Preview: Early Picks, Including Keith Mitchell
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley with the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. Compare Canadian Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Shane Lowry project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Perhaps the most underrated event on the PGA TOUR schedule, the RBC Canadian Open has a fan atmosphere that can compare to the others. Canada’s national open brings its countrymen out in masses and has the potential to make legends out of its locals, as we saw with Nick Taylor in 2023. His winning moment has been ingrained into the RBC Canadian Open logo as a testament to how much this tournament means to Canadians.
We’ll see a change of scenery this week. While the Canadian Open has a longstanding history of rotating across the best of the best host venues in Canada, it’s notable to come across a new venue never seen before. The freshly renovated TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley was quite literally built to host an event of this stature and will feature all the stadium-style designs and theater of boisterous crowds we’ve grown accustomed to seeing at other TPC venues on the PGA TOUR.
While it remains to be seen how this new venue will stand up to some of the PGA TOUR’s best, I’m expecting a moderate test on this ~7,400-yard par-70, offering a mix of short scoring holes and long grind-it-out par-4s. Like many other modern PGA TOUR venues, it’s a weak where the top trending iron players will be equipped to separate. Without further ado, let’s run through the key facts and info about TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley ahead of the 2025 RBC Canadian Open.
RBC Canadian Open: Betting Odds
Compare favorites with 25-1 or shorter odds below. Scroll to the bottom for complete, outright RBC Canadian Open golf odds.
The Field At A Glance
The RBC Canadian Open features a full field of 156 players. Set to host for the 113th time, the Canadian Open is one of the longest-standing events on the PGA TOUR, dating back to 1904.
Find yourself somebody who loves you as much as Rory McIlroy loves the RBC Canadian Open. Rory is the clear headlining favorite this week, and in four career appearances at this event, has finished 1st, 1st, T9, and T4. He loves playing in Canada so much that he even skipped Jack Nicklaus’ Signature Event last week just to squeeze this into his schedule. Rory has been radio silent with the media since his four disappointing rounds at the PGA Championship, so it’ll be interesting to follow his comments in the pressers this week.
McIlroy is in a class of his own this week, but the second tier of contenders includes a respectable seven OWGR top-25 players: Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Robert MacIntyre, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, and Wyndham Clark.
Canada’s national open will feature 21 Canadian’s, with Conners, Taylor Pendrith, Nick Taylor, and Mackenzie Hughes each in good form and poised to contend.
Robert MacIntyre is back to defend his 2024 RBC Canadian title, where he narrowly edged past Ben Griffin, Victor Perez, Tom Kim, and Rory McIlroy with his father on the bag. He’ll be joined by Rory McIlroy, Nick Taylor, and Jhonattan Vegas, and Brandt Snedeker to represent the list of former champions back in the field this week.
Introduction To TPC Toronto At Osprey Valley
Constructed in 2001 by Doug Carrick, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley has spared no time rising up the ranks of Canadian golf courses, now solidified in the country’s top 100. TPC Toronto features two 18-hole setups – the North Course and Hoot Course – with the latter playing host to the 2025 RBC Canadian Open.
Minimal routing changes have been made from the original course set up ahead of this tournament, but those changes include flipping the 8th and 17th holes, and converting two usual par-5s into long par-4s. The course will play as a 7,389-yard par-70 this week.
It’s refreshing to see a brand new golf course on the PGA TOUR schedule, and TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley will be up to the task after Ian Andrew completed his renovation work last year. The renovation project took inspiration from other PGA TOUR courses in the TPC network with the goal of creating a fan-friendly viewing experience while offering more of a challenge to the PGA TOUR’s best. As part of those efforts to challenge the professionals, Andrew installed deeper greenside bunkers and pushed back fairway hazards to ensure players would have to think twice before bombing past them off the tee.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley will look fantastic on the TV broadcast, with elevation changes offering panoramic views of the Toronto skyline in the distance. Like many other TPC layouts, there are short par-4s and reachable par-5s that will tempt players to play aggressively in search of birdies-or-better. It is the deep greenside bunkers and length of the par-3s and par-4s that will stand as TPC Toronto’s greatest defense, however, all indications point towards this being a course where the longest hitters can separate, given the openness off-the-tee and lack of severe penalty for wayward tee shots.
How It Breaks Down
By simply featuring only two par-5s, we can expect the score relative to par to remain in check this week. The North Course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley will play as a 7,389-yard par-70. As far as par-70s go, TPC Toronto is certainly on the longer side, getting its length from the six par-4s measuring over 480 yards. The par-3s are likely to average above par this week as well, with two of the four measuring over 225 yards. Depending on the tee boxes used each day, bombers will have a chance to give it a go at the green on two short par-4s.
What I find most interesting about TPC Toronto is its bookended par-5s. It’s traditional for RBC Canadian Open venues to begin with a par-5, however, it’s very rare for any PGA TOUR venue to begin with a par-5 and not see another until the final hole. That can be a frustration for streaky players, as there will be fewer bounce-back birdie opportunities here. Conversely, those who begin on the 10th hole on Thursday or Friday will have that opportunity to pick up back-to-back birdie opportunities when playing the 18th and 1st hole consecutively.
TPC Toronto shares very little in common with Torrey Pines, with the exception of their finishing holes. The par-5 18th figures to be the signature hole here, with the clubhouse in the background, and offers the same risk-reward proposition. A good drive down the fairway will allow players to go for the green in two. Miss short, and you’ll trickle down into the water hazard for a penalty. Bail out long, and you’ll give yourself a very difficult up and down from the back bunkers. Any misfires off the tee are likely to force a layup. All of these factors make for a brilliant closing hole with two-shot swings abound. I can’t wait to see how the closing stretch plays out this week.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley Specs
- Yards: 7,389
- Par: 70 (4x 3s / 12x 4s / 2x 5s)
- Greens: Bent & Poa blend
- Rough: 3.75” Bluegrass (Moderate)
- Avg. Fairway Width: 37 Yards (Average)
- Avg Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft. (Above-average)
- Architect: Doug Carrick (2024 Renovation by Ian Andrew)
- Comp Courses: Philadelphia Cricket Club, TPC River Highlands, St. George’s G&CC, Hamilton G&CC, Oakdale G&CC, Glen Abbey, TPC Potomac, Colonial CC, Detroit Golf Club, Memorial Park
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (Par-70, 7,389)
Course History & Comps
There is no course history to speak of this week, with TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley set to make its PGA TOUR debut this week. With that said, it will share a very similar agronomical breakdown to each of the other rotating RBC Canadian Open host venues before it, so Event History will still be very to reference. The top-10 in terms of SG: TOT at the RBC Canadian Open over the last 36 rounds are Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Robert MacIntyre, Sam Burns, Victor Perez, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An, Tom Tim, Doug Ghim, and Charley Hoffman.
Course Comps
With no prior professional rounds at TPC Toronto to reference, identifying the right comp courses is crucial for handicapping this week’s event.
Philadelphia Cricket Club is the one above all others that stands out to me as the primary course to reference this week. Both courses feature similar agronomy in the Northeast, they are each par-70s of similar yardage with a mix of scoreable and long, difficult holes, and we don’t have to look back very far to compare performance between the two venues, as Philadelphia Cricket Club hosted the Truist Championship just four weeks ago. Sepp Straka won the Truist Championship with a score of -16, and I believe that could be the same winning score again this week. Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, and Cameron Young each finished top 10 at the Truist Championship and are back in the field this week.
After Philadelphia Cricket Club, there is a second tier of TPC River Highlands, Colonial CC, and Detroit Golf Club that comes to mind when researching TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley. All of these courses are short on the scorecard, but are not necessarily “positional”. Shorter plodders will benefit from creating the right angles into these undulated greens, however the penalty for near misses off the fairway does not seem severe at TPC Toronto. Like these other three comp courses, long hitters have begun to pick up an edge by playing aggressively with driver, producing leaderboards with an equitable mix of bombers and plodders alike.
Recent Canadian Open venues, Hamilton Golf & Country Club, Oakdale Golf & Country Club, and St. George’s Golf & Country Club, should serve as fair comps as well, featuring the same agronomy with Bentgrass and Poa mixed throughout. Compared to the last three years, Hamilton G&CC should resemble the 2023 host, Oakdale G&CC, more closely, given the increased scoring opportunities and elevation changes.
And on a more tertiary basis, I will also look to TPC Potomac, TPC San Antonio, and Memorial Park as par-70s that favor the longer hitters in the field. Looking down the line of other PGA TOUR TPC venues, TPC Toronto reminds me most of TPC San Antonio, as there is an advantage for longer hitters and the routing features some enticing risk-reward holes, but overall, I believe scoring will be kept in check. That would spell good news for Canadian and two-time Valero Texas Open champion Corey Conners if true.
Wrap that altogether, and the top-10 players in comp course history are Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Keith Mitchell, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, and Gary Woodland.
Key Stats To Consider
- SG: T2G (L16)
- SG: APP / Prox: 150+
- Par 4 Scoring
- Driving Distance
- SG: ARG / Sand Saves Gained
- SG: Putting (L36, Bent-Poa)
- Comp Course History
- Event History
I find myself taking a more broad-strokes approach to the stat model profile this week, with a limited sample size of one prior tournament at TPC Toronto to reference. Beginning most simply with recent form, the top-10 players in terms of SG: T2G over the last 16 rounds are Emiliano Grillo, Rory McIlroy, Chris Gotterup, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Ryan Fox, Thorbjorn Olesen, Doug Ghim, Alex Smalley, and Kurt Kitayama.
With fairly generous fairways, sparse fairway bunkers, and negligible rough penalty, TPC Toronto looks to have all the makings of a second-shot golf course. While I do believe there is an advantage be had for longer hitters taking less club into these greens, it’s approach play at the end of the day that will serve as the great separator. The top-10 players in SG: APP leading up to the week are Henrik Norlander, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Eric Cole, Joel Dahmen, Emiliano Grillo, Thorbjorn Olesen, Doug Ghim, Steven Fisk, and Rory McIlroy.
TPC Toronto features six par-4s measuring over 480 yards. When adding in two additional par-3s beyond 220 yards and a pair of reachable par-5s, it becomes apparent that short iron approaches will be few and far between this week. With that said, I’ll be focused on the top approach players from beyond 150 yards, with a focus on Prox: 200+. The top-10 approach players from long range are Luke Clanton, Kurt Kitayama, Michael Kim, Joel Dahmen, Kevin Yu, Adam Svensson, Nicolai Hojgaard, Robert MacIntyre, Nick Hardy, and Michael Thorbjornsen.
Combination Stats
TPC Toronto is not overbearingly long, but is routed in a way that gives an advantage to the longer hitters in the field. Driving Accuracy is helpful here, but may be a misleading stat on its own, as inaccurate drivers can get away with a more conservative approach off the tee here. Just seven players rank above-average in SG: APP, Driving Distance, SG: Putting (Bent-Poa), and SG: T2G on Comp Courses: Rory McIlroy, Luke Clanton, Matti Schmid, Gary Woodland, Alex Smalley, and Taylor Moore.
With fairly generous fairway landing areas and expanded greens, TPC Toronto profiles as a course where elite long iron players and putters will be best equipped to separate themselves from the pack. Just nine players rank top-40 in Weighted Putting (SG: P L36, Bent-Poa), Snad Saves Gained, and Prox: 150+: McIlroy, Smalley, Eric Cole, Sam Ryder, Matt Kuchar, Thomas Detry, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im, and Danny Willet.
To sum this all up, I’m looking to zero in on players in trending form with proven results on comp courses and elite ranks in Driving Distance, SG: APP (Prox: 150+), and Weighted Putting. Just eight players meet that criteria: McIlroy, Schmid, Cole, Clanton, Alex Noren, Gary Woodland, Lee Hodges, and Justin Rose.
Player Spotlight: Keith Mitchell
I’ve lost track of how many times Keith Mitchell has fooled me into believing this is the week he will transcend being a fit on paper and actually pick up his first PGA TOUR win since the 2019 Honda Classic. Well, I’m ready to get hurt again.
Mitchell has found his stride in the middle of the 2025 season, as he’s finished top-20 in five of his last seven starts. He’s leaned on his prowess in the opening rounds to carry that stretch of form, pacing the field as first-round leader in three of those instances. By the looks of it, TPC Toronto will require patience and is a difficult course to chase on, so I’m drawn to a player who can avoid digging an early hole and get out to a hot start.
Not to oversimplify and group all rotating RBC Canadian Open venues into the same bucket, but Canadian golf architecture does follow many overlapping commonalities. They each feature the exact same Bent-Poa turf, they begin with a par-5 opener hole, and they tend to feature benign rough neighboring the fairways. Rory McIlroy’s consistency across all courses in the Canadian Open rota goes to show how a uniform style of play can transcend across each. In Keith Mitchell’s case, he’s played some of his best golf north of the border, with two top-10 finishes over his last three RBC Canadian Open appearances. Mitchell is also one of just four players in this field to finish top-10 at the Truist Championship at Philadelphia Cricket Club, which I believe to be the top overall comp course to TPC Toronto.
Ranking top-10 in the key categories of SG: TOT (L36), SG: OTT, SG: Ball Striking, Driving Distance, and Comp Course History, Keith Mitchell rates out No. 5 overall in my model and has all the characteristics of a player I’m looking for to attack this golf course.
2025 RBC Canadian Open Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 RBC Canadian Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Tier 1
- Rory McIlroy
Tier 2
- Shane Lowry
- Corey Conners
- Sungjae Im
- Taylor Pendrith
- Keith Mitchell
Tier 3
- Sam Burns
- Justin Rose
- Robert MacIntyre
- Thomas Detry
- Luke Clanton
- Eric Cole
Tier 4
- Cameron Young
- Gary Woodland
- Kurt Kitayama
- Matti Schmid
- Luke Clanton
Tier 5
- Adam Hadwin
- Chris Gotterup
- Emiliano Grillo
- Steven Fisk
RBC Canadian Open Model Results & Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing Recent Form (SG: T2G L16), SG: APP, and Comp Course History first and foremost, followed by a more balanced mix of Prox: 150+, Event History, Driving Distance, SG: ARG, and SG: P (L36, Bent-Poa blend).
Rory McIlroy is in the field this week, and Scottie Scheffler is not, so naturally it is Rory who claims the No. 1 spot in my model. Rory will be the prohibitive favorite, having won two of the last four Canadian Opens and picking up three PGA TOUR wins already this season.
After McIlroy, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Eric Cole, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Fox, Ryo Hisatsune, and Michael Kim.
When the 2025 Canadian Open odds open Monday, I’ll look to Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, and Taylor Pendrith amongst the favorites as my first potential targets. I’ll also keep an eye on Luke Clanton, Eric Cole, and Kurt Kitayama in a second tier of values, depending on where the odds ultimately open.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2025 RBC Canadian Open odds!
- Join Lineups.com’s free sports betting Discord channel, where we are talking golf 24-7-365.
Best Sportsbook Promos For Charles Schwab Challenge Odds
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: LINEUPS
- Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
- OR First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000
- 30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
- T&Cs Apply. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER 21+
- Use Bonus Code: LINEUPSBET
- Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
- 21+ Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
- Use Promo Code: LINEUPSDYW
Get $150
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+
To Claim: Click Play Now
Get $150
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Get Your Bets Boosted
21+. Gambling Problem? Call/Text 1-800-Gambler. T&Cs apply
To Claim: Click Play Now
- Bet and Get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets or Choose Your Own Offer
- Earn FanCash & Spend it on Team Swag or More Bets
- 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
- To Claim: Click Play Now
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly!
PLUS Get a $50 Bonus Bet on Deposit
PLUS up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
