WNBA Best Player Prop Picks, Odds, Predictions for Thursday, July 16, 2026
After a busy last several days, the WNBA takes a bit of a breather Thursday with a two-game slate. The Fire and Mystics tip things off at 7 p.m. ET, but the marquee matchup is the Liberty-Wings clash in Dallas that closes out the night.
Be sure to also check out our daily WNBA betting trends page for odds, data and insights of every game.
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Player Props
- Sonia Citron (WAS) – Over Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Carla Leite (POR) – Under Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Paige Bueckers (DAL) – Over Points + Assists
2026 WNBA Betting Record: 19-9 (+8.29 units)
Sonia Citron (WAS) – Over Points + Rebounds + Assists
Citron was a big letdown as a Tuesday Over recommendation against the Tempo, recording just 10 points + rebounds + assists across 31 minutes while taking only six shot attempts. The stat line was a significant outlier, as Citron’s two points were a season low, while the six shot attempts tied her low-water mark for 2026 as well. The talented guard had come into that contest averaging 27.7 points + rebounds + assists across 35.4 minutes over the prior 12 games, a stretch where she’d shot a solid 46.6%. We’re putting some faith in Citron ascending back to her mean Thursday, considering her overall body of work since her entry into the league a year ago.
Citron is a 47.3% shooter over her first 63 career games, and she’s facing a Fire team that could well help her bounce back to form. Portland is allowing the third-most points per game (94.8), along with the fifth-highest shooting percentage (47.1%), on the road. The Fire is also surrendering the fifth-most rebounds (43.6) and the most assists (24.7) per away contest as well, and the Fire also conceded 42 points + rebounds + assists to Citron in a wild June 28 overtime game in which she logged a whopping 53 minutes.
Original line publish: 24.5
Carla Leite (POR) – Under Points + Rebounds + Assists
Leite has upped her production in all of points, rebounds and assists during her second season, and she comes into Thursday averaging 27.6 points + rebounds + assists across 28.8 minutes per game in her last eight contests. However, Leite’s efficiency still has plenty of room for improvement, as she’s shot just 41.4% in that span and 43.5% overall for the season. She remains a very capable three-point shooter — which has certainly helped prop up her scoring totals on nights when she hasn’t been very effective from in front of the arc — but she has a particularly thorny matchup in that regard Thursday.
The Mystics have generally made life difficult on opposing offensive attacks at home this season. Washington is allowing the sixth-fewest points (84.3) and fifth-lowest shooting percentage (42.9%) of any team on its home floor, including the second lowest three-point success rate (29.2%). That’s particularly relevant when evaluating Leite’s prospects, considering she’s shooting 39.7% from behind the arc. Then, the Mystics are also yielding the eighth-fewest assists per home contest (19.6), and Leite is averaging under the 23.5 figure — 22.6 points + rebounds + assists — on the road in a 12-game sample.
Original Line Publish: 23.5
Paige Bueckers (DAL) – Over Points + Assists
Bueckers has been even better in her second season than during a standout rookie campaign, when she’d averaged 19.2 points, 5.4 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals across 33.3 minutes over 36 games. The 25-year-old UConn product is delivering 20.7 points (on 51.6% shooting, including 38.1% from three-point range), 6.3 assists and 4.2 rebounds across 26 appearances thus far this season. The talented guard comes into Thursday on quite the heater as well, as she’s putting up 30.9 points + assists on 53.9% shooting over the last eight games, a stretch where she’s averaged a robust 35.8 minutes per contest.
Bueckers should continue to log heavy usage in Thursday night’s showdown against the Liberty, a team she posted 26 points + assists against in one of her two prior meetings with this season. The Liberty is surrendering the fifth-most points per road game (89.2), along with a 46.6% success rate from the field that’s significantly more than the 41.2% figure they concede at home. New York is also ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in assists per road game allowed (21.3), and in the bottom five in assists per game surrendered to guards specifically (13.3).
Original Line Publish: 23.5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
