MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 16, 2026

We got shut out on home runs in our last column last Saturday, as Miguel Vargas, Jose Caballero, and Elly De La Cruz each failed to homer. We also missed during the All-Star game but did nail Jordan Walker at +700 to win the Home Run Derby! Let’s try to bounce back today.

With only one game on the slate, we’re severely limited with options, but we’re going to choose one hitter from each team in the Mets/Phillies game.

Keep reading to find out why I’m on Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.

Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 62-240 (+0.78 units) 

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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 16

Juan Soto Home Run Odds

Juan Soto is currently slashing .290/.405/.562 with 21 home runs in 334 plate appearances. His barrel rate is a rock-solid 14.8%, while he’s been making a ton of contact, as highlighted by an elite 12.9% strikeout rate.

So far in July, Soto is slashing .237/.388/.553 with four home runs in 11 games. Heading into the All-Star Break, Soto had homered four times in seven games, so he’s in top form right now.

Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Aaron Nola, who has a 4.23 xERA and a 1.86 HR/9 on the season. Hitters have been crushing Nola, as highlighted by a 10.0% barrel rate. On top of that, lefties like Soto have been better vs. Nola compared to righties, as they have a .366 wOBA.

Soto has a lot of familiarity against Nola as well, including five home runs and a .645 expected slugging percentage in 62 plate appearances.

With that in mind, we’ll ride with Soto to hit his 22nd homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Bryce Harper Home Run Odds

Bryce Harper is having a nice resurgence this year, slashing .260/.365/.497 with 20 home runs in 408 plate appearances. He’s only seven homers back of last season’s total despite 172 fewer plate appearances.

You have to like how Harper has maintained rock-solid batted ball metrics, including an 11.3% barrel rate and 113.5 MPH maximum exit velocity this season.

While he’s slumping in July so far, slashing .150/.292/.225, I like him to start the second half with a bang against Mets’ right-hander Christian Scott, who is allowing an 8.0% barrel rate this year.

Harper has also performed well vs. Scott in a small sample, homering once in two plate appearances.

Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Harper to hit his 21st homer of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.

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