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The NBA season opens Oct. 20 and while there are a couple of top-tier titans looming in the Western Conference, the New York Knicks proved that teams can get hot in the playoffs and win a championship.
Will there be a repeat champion? Will any Western Conference contender surprise, or will the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs meet in the conference finals again?
The offseason has shifted the landscape across the board with just about every team adding and subtracting key pieces. Oddsmakers have adjusted with up-to-date projections on win totals and other futures markets, including the top candidates to win the 2026-27 championship.
NBA Championship Odds
The industry is in pretty close lockstep in terms of the outright NBA Champion market, with the Thunder and Spurs head and shoulders above other contenders at around +250 at most books. The Thunder had an initial edge in the market, but the Spurs have jockeyed as a slight overall favorite at FanDuel and Caesars, where OKC has the longest odds (+280) available.
The Philadelphia 76ers have seen the biggest movement in the market, shifting from +6000 to +2000 after the Jaylen Brown trade, then down to +950 after acquiring LeBron James. With action coming in, the Sixers are now the third title favorite, listed ahead of the defending champion Knicks with odds as short as +750 at Hard Rock.
Eastern Conference contenders take up the next couple of slots with the Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Detroit Pistons ahead of the remaining Western Conference contenders on consensus odds boards. The Denver Nuggets and reshaped Minnesota Timberwolves are on par with the latter two Eastern Conference teams with shorter odds at some books. The Toronto Raptors round out the third tier of contenders with Kawhi Leonard back in the North.
Despite acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Miami Heat are just outside this tier with consensus odds around +3000. The Los Angeles Lakers, Indiana Pacers, and Houston Rockets fill out that fourth tier, and the rest of the playoff contenders should be considered longshots.
NBA Championship Contenders
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder GM Sam Presti continued to work his magic this offseason, extending Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and re-structuring an extension for Isaiah Hartenstein without losing many key pieces of his championship-caliber roster. Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins are out the door, making way for Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and Cason Wallace to continue their breakout roles. Rookies Bennett Stirtz and Aday Mara could also make an immediate impact and the 7-foot-3 Mara is a chess piece to deploy against Victor Wembanyama.
Getting past Wemby and the Spurs is clearly the biggest hurdle for the Thunder, and one they couldn’t overcome last postseason. After stewing on that loss, Holmgren and others should come into this season with renewed motivation. J-Dub wasn’t healthy for most of last season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carried a larger load as a result. With more rest during the regular season, SGA could be ready to dominate the playoffs and earn his second Finals MVP.
The biggest concerns for OKC as the title favorites would be Holmgren’s inability to match up with Wemby, and a shift in officiating emphasis that could restrict SGA and other superstars from using their off arm to draw fouls or clear space. The MVP has led the league in free throws made per game the past three seasons and that number increased (8.8 per game) in the playoffs. The Thunder also don’t have elite perimeter shooting, so they could lose out in the math game to a superior 3-point shooting team.
San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama is the scariest superstar to enter the league in decades. The 7-foot-5 Frenchman changes everything for opponents on both ends of the floor, although his defense is particularly impactful. Now that he’s tasted playoff victories and a crushing defeat in the NBA Finals, the assumption is he will take the next step with a title run.
To support their young star, the Spurs added veteran wing Tobias Harris at power forward. The rest of the roster is almost identical, with young guards Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle set to bring more experience and savvy into this year’s postseason run. If De’Aaron Fox stays healthy, the Spurs might have the best backcourt in the NBA to go along with the Defensive Player of the Year anchoring the paint. They’ve drawn the most action in the NBA Futures market for good reason.
Wemby’s body type makes him injury prone and the Spurs aren’t winning it all without the 22-year-old stud. Harper and Castle are also under 23 years old, and there’s simply no precedent for leaders of that age winning a title in the modern era. They navigated the postseason with aplomb last year, but the young Spurs could run into unexpected road blocks before learning what it truly takes to win it all.
Philadelphia 76ers
Rallying to beat the Celtics in a 7-game first-round series seemed to be the high-water mark for the 76ers last year. Joel Embiid and Paul George had almost nothing in the tank after their stellar performances and they were quickly swept by the Knicks.
Now this team has incredible depth due to the high-profile additions of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, but also down the roster with Dean Wade available as a 3-and-D weapon and Anfernee Simons capable of providing instant offense off the bench.
The Sixers have more championship pedigree than any other team in the East. Veteran Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another voice in the locker room who could help mentor Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe to greatness. Once rivals, Brown and Embiid could band together and find vindication by silencing the haters, and LeBron would love to go into the sunset with one more ring. Motivating storylines could certainly help Philly fulfill the projection as the Eastern Conference champion.
Health is clearly the biggest concern for this aging roster. Embiid has played just 39, 18, and 38 games over the past three seasons and faded in the playoffs. James is a marvel at age 41, but he could slow down, and Brown’s physical style leaves him prone to injury. If those three stars aren’t playing at a high level in May and June, the Sixers won’t be able to win a title.
New York Knicks
With their core mostly intact, the Knicks have great continuity coming into this season. Mitchell Robinson, who is now with the rival Celtics, is the only main piece of their championship squad that has departed. Otherwise the Knicks mainly made moves around the edges, re-signing Jose Alvarado, Jordan Clarkson, and Landry Shamet, and bringing in Andre Drummond to replace Robinson. Adding Bruce Brown, John Konchar, and Ochai Agbaji will give their frontcourt a bit more depth.
Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are eligible for contract extensions, but ownership seems unwilling to pay them due to second apron restrictions. That could provide a distraction as the Knicks enter their title defense. Repeating as champion is extremely difficult and the Knicks seemed to catch lightning in a bottle last year, so banking on a repeat performance of all those insane comebacks takes a leap of faith.
On the other hand, Jalen Brunson is one of the best closers in NBA history and the Knicks have elite defensive wings around him. Towns is versatile enough to give opposing frontcourts fits and he’s hit another level to his game under Mike Brown. The Knicks could certainly be in the mix again.
Award Predictions
MVP
Luka Doncic
Are we going to look up in April and wonder how the Los Angeles Lakers won 52 games without any consistent defensive wings and limited depth around the star guards? If so, we might finally get the Luka Doncic MVP season.
Doncic has been listed among the preseason MVP favorites for five seasons running and only once fallen within the top three in voting results. His defense and childish demeanor towards the refs are usually the biggest detractors when voters consider his impact. Both of those factors are correctable and he appears to be in the best shape of his life entering this season.
There are no major critiques for his offensive game. Doncic led the NBA in PPG (33.5) last season and was closely behind Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Offensive Box Plus/Minus. Posting efficient numbers despite a massive 38.1% Usage Rate makes a strong case for Doncic as the best offensive player, now he just needs to put it together with defense and leadership.
Rookie of the Year
Cameron Boozer
In today’s analytical league, efficiency should play a major factor in this award and that’s why we’re taking Cam Boozer. The next three favorites in this class (Caleb Wilson, Darryn Peterson, and AJ Dybansta) might get more usage and therefore more raw stats than Boozer, but the Memphis Grizzlies wing is likely to surpass them in advanced stats such as Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating.
Boozer was a metronome for Duke last year on both ends of the floor. He slots right into a starting role for a young Grizzlies squad that will need his steadying presence in the frontcourt. His durable build should allow him to play 70-plus games and the Grizzlies could be a surprising play-in team in the Western Conference.
Defensive Player of the Year
Victor Wembanyama
While the odds aren’t very appealing at -350, Victor Wembanyama is deservedly a massive favorite for both Defensive Player of the Year and MVP (+200) considering he nearly stormed to the award with a strong second half of last season while barely making the 65-game minimum.
If he can stay healthy and play around 70 this year, the Spurs are probably getting a top-2 seed in the West and he will likely be in the top three for MVP voting. This is a safer bet than MVP because there is simply no other player in modern history who can have the same impact as Wemby on the defensive end. He led the NBA with a 101.4 defensive rating and blocked 197 shots last year while becoming the first unanimous Defensive POY in history. It would take an injury for any other candidate to supplant him.
X-Factors & Players to Watch
Tyrese Haliburton
Has any team fallen further from grace than the 2025-26 Indiana Pacers? After losing their floor general during Game 7 of the NBA Finals, they posted the second-worst record (19-63) in the NBA last season. Now Haliburton is back to recharge the Pacers with his irreplicable pace and style. Indiana’s win total has been bumped to 43.5 and it was only down to 37.5 without Haliburton last year. They’re still eighth at most books to win the Eastern Conference, but will that adjust if Haliburton has this offense humming again? Adding a true pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac and more wing depth with Kelly Oubre Jr. makes his squad dangerous.
LaMelo Ball
Adding LaMelo Ball to a defense-first team was a bold move. The Wolves clearly felt like they had to shake things up to unlock Anthony Edwards and now they have a true lead ball-handler to give Ant Man the freedom he needs as a scorer. The question remains, will Ball slot into structure when games are tight in the fourth quarter? He posted a modest 48.6% eFG rate and -14.2 net rating in Clutch situations last season with Charlotte. Ball has to be a better defender to fit in with the Wolves and he will be forced into high-leverage situations more frequently.
Peyton Watson
The Cavs have fizzled out in the playoffs in recent years, but made it to the East Finals before flopping this season. By providing elite athleticism on the wing, Watson could be the missing piece to get them over the hump. He’s a massive upgrade over Dean Wade and Max Strus, and his ability to guard lead ball-handlers will allow Donovan Mitchell and James Harden to concentrate on offense, and keep Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen out of foul trouble. If he can knock down perimeter shots and cut well on offense, the Cavs could hit another level this season.
Bold Predictions
- The Toronto Raptors will win the NBA Cup (+2000)
- The Miami Heat will make the Eastern Conference Finals (+500)
- The Southwest Division will combine for the most Regular Season Wins (+4000)
FAQ
When does the NBA season start?
The 2026-27 NBA season opens Tuesday, October 20, with an NBC/Peacock season-opening tripleheader.
How many games are in an NBA season?
Each team plays 82 games, for a total of 1,230 games across the league.
How can I watch NBA games?
Games are split across ABC/ESPN, NBC/Peacock, and Amazon Prime Video for national broadcasts, with NBA League Pass covering any games not available nationally or in a user’s local market.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
