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This year’s rookie class is stacked with top-end talent competing for the coveted Rookie of the Year trophy. It takes more than talent to take home the award, however. AJ Dybantsa, for example, has the fourth-highest odds to win ROY despite going No. 1 to the Washington Wizards. His opportunities game-to-game just won’t be as plentiful as guys like Cam Boozer or Yaxel Lendeborg. We ranked the top eight rookies most likely to take home the hardware at the end of the season.
| Player | Team Change | Odds |
|---|---|---|
Yaxel Lendeborg
|
→
|
ROY
+1500
|
Cam Boozer
|
→
|
ROY
+300
|
Darius Acuff Jr.
|
→
|
ROY
+1000
|
Caleb Wilson
|
→
|
ROY
+360
|
AJ Dybantsa
|
→
|
ROY
+425
|
Brayden Burries
|
→
|
ROY
+10000
|
Mikel Brown Jr.
|
→
|
ROY
+3500
|
Darryn Peterson
|
→
|
ROY
+340
|
Yaxel Lendeborg | Rd 1, Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Warriors Head Coach, Steve Kerr has already said Lendeborg will start and play big minutes this season. He rolled his Summer League MVP trophy right into an excellent preseason, averaging 24.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 6 assists per 36 minutes. Like Boozer, he’s polished enough to contribute in multiple categories right away and at 15-1, his value grants him the No. 1 spot in our rankings.
Cam Boozer | Rd 1, Pick 3: Memphis Grizzlies
Boozer is a classic floor-raiser for any franchise and he probably has a higher NBA-career ceiling than Lendeborg. He’s a three-level scorer who can pass from the wing or out of the post, meaning his game will translate from college to the pros very well. Most important to winning the ROY Award, his path to big minutes and major usage are clear. Unlike Dybantsa’s situation in Washington, Memphis shipped its veteran stars away to open things up for youngsters like Boozer and last year’s lottery pick, Cedric Coward.
Darius Acuff Jr. | Rd 1, Pick 7: Sacramento Kings
Acuff Jr. will start at point guard for the Kings to open the season. He’s been as advertised during the preseason, averaging 18.3 points on 41% shooting from deep with four assists and four turnovers per game. We should expect some growing pains for Acuff Jr. and the Kings, but his opportunity within their rebuilding franchise should be comparable to Lendeborg and Boozer. Ben Simmons and Domantis Sabonis are both pass-first players which should help relieve some of the pressures that come with a point guard’s responsibilities. The main arguments against a bet on Acuff Jr. would be Zach LaVine and Malik Monk, both of whom require the ball in their hands to be successful.
Caleb Wilson | Rd 1, Pick 4: Chicago Bulls
There will be plenty of room for Wilson to shine in Chicago. His one, injury-plagued season at UNC left a lot of open-ended questions about his shooting ability, but he answered most of them by shooting 12-25 from deep across 3 Summer League games.
Even if his shot doesn’t fall at a 48% clip this year (it won’t), expect to see a lot of Caleb Wilson highlights across your timeline. Winning social media will help fuel his case for the award, but the volatile nature of his game means he will have more off-nights than some of his peers. Tack on the crowded wing rotation in Chicago and his value at +360 just isn’t as high as the top three guys on this list.
AJ Dybantsa | Rd 1, Pick 1: Washington Wizards
When a team selects a player No. 1 overall, it doesn’t normally have two high-level stars already on the roster. The Wizards, however, traded for Trae Young and Anthony Davis in the middle of last season at bargain prices and shelved them for this year. So, it’s understandable that Dybantsa isn’t considered a top 3 candidate to win top rookie honors. He will still earn playing time and soak up usage, as he’s set to start in Washington from day one. Any serious injury to AD or “Ice Trae” opens the door for Dybantsa to take over, but relying on teammate injuries isn’t a great angle when laying a futures bet at around +400.
Brayden Burries | Rd 1, Pick 10: Milwaukee Bucks
Burries has shown some of the highest upside of any rook since Summer League in July. He averaged 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists in Vegas, earning All-Summer League First Team honors. He followed that up with 25 points per 36 minutes on efficient shooting over three preseason games. The problem is the Bucks added Tyler Hero, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kasparas Jakučionis to an already crowded wing rotation. Milwaukee’s front office is almost certainly going to ship multiple players by the deadline, but Burries will be in a guard-heavy rotation until that happens.
Mikel Brown Jr. | Rd 1, Pick 6: Brooklyn Nets
Brown Jr. has already revived the concerns about his health that hovered around his draft workouts over the summer. He missed Brooklyn’s first three preseason games with an injured ankle after playing just 21 games at Louisville last year. He did impress in Summer League with 15 points and four assists per game, but it’s hard to see a path to more than 25 minutes per game in Brooklyn. When he does play, he’ll have to share the ball with Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, and Egor Dëmin.
Darryn Peterson | Rd 1, Pick 2: Utah Jazz
No rookie on this list has better talent around him than Darryn Peterson. Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all established veterans who limit Peterson’s upside for high usage. Peterson hasn’t helped himself either this preseason, averaging 13.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists. More worrisome for Jazz fans and coaches, he’s shooting just 20%
from three. There’s no denying his athleticism and ability to create shots for himself, but his game is still raw and will likely require a few years to polish.
Honorable Mentions
- Keaton Wagler (Clippers, ): The No. 5 pick is a capable shooter and creator, and a 25-30 minute role could put him into the conversation.
- Kingston Flemings (Hawks, ): He’s shown flashes of the playmaking point guard the Hawks sorely need, especially if McCollum misses any significant amount of time.
- Aday Mara (Thunder, ): OKC’s established frontcourt should keep him from real minutes, but he’s been the most impressive rookie in the preseason compared to expectations.
- Morez Johnson Jr. (Mavericks, ): His case for ROY would have to be centered around rebounds and defense, but will he play enough to be able to build it?
- Nate Ament (Bucks, ): The Bucks could lean fully into the rebuild and give more minutes to their rookies, but I still prefer his teammate, Burries at 100-1.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
