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Our Teaser: Bills -2 (teased from -8) + Vikings +9 (teased from +3) + Seahawks -0.5 (teased from -6.5) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Bills -2 (teased from -8)
Fresh off a win over Minnesota, Josh Allen will be able to build on his momentum against the New York Jets by picking apart a secondary that ranks near dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed per play and in Coverage Grade. Especially with DJ Moore back from injury, giving Allen a true WR1 to help stretch the field which will create more space for his supporting cast to exploit.
Not only have the Jets back end been unable to hold their own in coverage, the front seven has been consistently gashed on the ground, limping into Week 10 ranked 29th in Def Rush Success Rate. With Allen’s running ability forcing the Jets to crash a linebacker to the flats, James Cook will combat against fewer bodies in the trenches, making it easier to reach the second level which will lead to an uptick in his total number of explosive runs.
Leg 2: Vikings +9 (teased from +9)
After bringing Kirk Cousins back into the fold, the Vikings may finally receive the stability they need under center to help play at a competitive level. In his brief stint with the Las Vegas Raiders, Cousins was able to turn back the clock, hovering in the top-10 in QB EPA per play while ranking 15th in CPOE.
While a matchup against the Green Bay’s secondary normally indicates negative regression is looming large, Jordan Mason will help pull defensive attention to the middle by taking advantage of a front seven that ranks 30th in Rush Success Rate, widening Cousins passing lanes on the outside. The quality of Cousins passes will also improve while operating behind an offensive line that ranks ninth in Pass Block Grade per PFF, chipping away at his total number of Turnover Worthy Plays.
Leg 3: Seahawks -0.5 (teased from -6.5)
With Cousins out of the picture, the Raiders are handing the reins to Fernando Mendoza, the 1.01 pick in last year’s NFL Draft. In Mendoza’s very brief time under center this season, the former Indiana Hoosier’s quarterback poise was on full display, completing 75% of his passes on eight attempts. It is worth noting Mendoza was very conservative with his throws, averaging just six yards per completion.
In a daunting matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, Mendoza will struggle to find his footing while battling it out against a defense that ranks second overall in DVOA. The Seahawks relentless pressure in the interior will also force Mendoza to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap, giving his pass catchers less time in their routes to create separation, increasing the amount of havoc in his throws.
NFL Week 10 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills @ Jets | Bills -8 | Bills -2 |
| 2 | Vikings @ Packers | Vikings +3 | Vikings +9 |
| 3 | Seahawks @ Raiders | Seahawks -6.5 | Seahawks -0.5 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
Even with the Bills defense ranking 18th in DVOA, it’s tough to envision how the Jets will be able to keep pace while Geno Smith hovers in the bottom half of the board in EPA per play. When held to an early out, the Jets will be unable to get the ball back in Smith’s hands in quick order while struggling to keep the Bills out of scoring position, leading to a lopsided high scoring affair.
The Vikings, meanwhile, will be able to consistently stall out the Packers drives by using their heavy use of the blitz to force Jordan Love to throw into narrow windows, making it difficult for the Packers to stay ahead of the sticks. Josh Jacobs has also been ruled out with an injury, making Green Bay’s offense overly reliant on Love’s arm while MarShawn Lloyd averages just 2.6 yards per carry.
To cap off the night, Drew Lock will be able to capitalize on the extra possessions the Seahawks defense will provide by torching a Raiders secondary that ranks well below league average in Dropback EPA Allowed per play and in Success Rate. When in scoring position, Seattle will be able to lean on Zach Charbonnet while Jaxon Smith-Njigba pulls defensive attention to the outside, negating the possibility of Lock throwing a pick near the goal line.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
