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Best Bet: U7.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Padres 4, Brewers 3
The Pick: Padres 4, Brewers 3
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data along with Milwaukee’s playoff stats when playing at night.
Game Betting Analysis
We pushed with our Game 3 pick, as there were exactly seven runs scored. We’ll stick with the Under in Game 4, hitting in six of seven playoff games for the Brewers when playing at night. The Under has also hit in four of six meetings with an exact 4-3 score in three of the last four meetings. San Diego has covered the run line in five of six games against Milwaukee, but after Milwaukee’s +1.5-run cover in Game 3, that data shifts to the underdog covering six in a row between both clubs. With misleading numbers in the run line market, much like every MLB game today, we’ll go with the total instead.
MLB Game Trends & Betting Data
Brewers vs. Padres Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Walker Buehler’s Postseason Pedigree vs. Milwaukee’s Patchwork Pitching Plan
San Diego is fighting for its season again after Jake Cronenworth’s go-ahead homer and a lockdown relief effort from closer Michael King powered a 4-3 Game 3 win that kept the Padres alive, trimming Milwaukee’s series lead to 2-1. For Game 4 at Petco Park, San Diego is turning to Walker Buehler — just back from paternity leave and sitting on a 3.04 ERA across 94.2 career postseason innings, including a save in the 2024 World Series. In a true must-win game, that kind of big-stage experience is exactly what the Padres need from their starter, and it’s a luxury Milwaukee doesn’t have the same night.
The Brewers, meanwhile, are searching for answers after their best weapon against this exact lineup came up empty. Dustin May entered Game 3 having allowed just three runs in 22 innings against San Diego this season (a 1.23 ERA across three starts) and still couldn’t get Milwaukee the win. With no traditional front-line starter left to turn to, manager Pat Murphy has openly discussed a bullpen-game approach using Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan or Chad Patrick — depth arms Murphy himself described as “used-up guys” after three games of heavy bullpen usage. If Manny Machado (30 home runs) and the Padres’ lineup can get to whoever starts for Milwaukee early, San Diego’s proven stopper on the mound gives them a real path to forcing a decisive Game 5.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026
- Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Venue: Petco Park – 8 runs per game; 37-42-5 O/U
- Series Score: Brewers 2-1
Key Players
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jackson Chourio — Last Game: 0/4, RBI
- William Contreras — Last Game: 3/4, HR, RBI, 2 R, BB
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado — Last Game: 1/3, RBI, BB
- Jackson Merrill — Last Game: 1/4, R
Photo Credit: REUTERS
