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Best Bet: Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Brewers 4, Rays 2
The Pick: Brewers 4, Rays 2
We’ll take Contreras’ base total going Over based on series data as well.
Game Betting Analysis
With betting data unreliable for this encounter, we move to the player prop market. Contreras has been the hottest hitter in this World Series, batting .383 with 28 total bases across his last 12 playoff games, and he’s cleared 2+ total bases in all three games so far this series, a stretch that includes a three-hit, one-RBI night in Game 3’s 10-1 blowout. He’s also been making history behind the plate, becoming the first catcher since 1993 to record three caught stealings through a World Series’ first three games, which only underscores how locked in he is right now on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay is almost certain to piece this game together with a patchwork, heavily taxed bullpen after throwing eight innings of relief in last night’s 12-inning marathon, with options like Nick Martinez and Bryan Baker both already stretched past their usual workloads. That’s exactly the kind of shaky, matchup-driven pitching situation a middle-of-the-order bat like Contreras feeds on, and at plus money it’s a far cheaper way to attack this game than laying -142 or steeper on the favorite.
MLB Game Trends & Betting Data
Brewers vs. Rays Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Jacob Misiorowski’s Historic Dominance vs. Rays’ Shot-Out Pitching Staff
Milwaukee takes the mound tonight in Tampa one win away from its first championship, and it’s hard to imagine a better arm to hand the ball to than the one that just put together the most dominant season in modern pitching history. Misiorowski led all of MLB in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.802) this year, and his .157 opponent batting average is the lowest by any qualified starter since the mound was lowered in 1969, edging out Pedro Martinez’s .166 mark in 2000; his 1.46 ERA over his final 24 regular-season starts, with 200 strikeouts and a 0.72 WHIP, included 18 outings that were scoreless or one-run affairs. He’s been just as nasty in October, going 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA across three postseason starts, and in his World Series Game 1 win he worked five innings of one-run ball on four hits while uncorking 40 pitches at 100-plus mph, part of a season in which he threw 1,115 such pitches, by far the most in the pitch-tracking era. With a Brewers bullpen that owns a 1.33 ERA this postseason behind Trevor Megill and Aaron Ashby (12 1/3 scoreless postseason innings), Milwaukee needs only a handful of innings from Misiorowski to put the Rays right back in position to be shut down the way they were in Game 3’s 10-1 blowout.
The Rays, meanwhile, are starting Game 5 from a position of pitching desperation after last night’s marathon 12-inning escape act. Their bullpen threw 8 of those 12 innings, with likely Game 5 starter Nick Martinez already having thrown 33 pitches in relief on zero days’ rest and closer Bryan Baker pushed to a rare two-inning outing after being limited to one frame all season while working through a velocity dip since mid-August; the other alternative, Drew Rasmussen, would be pitching on short rest after getting hit hard in Game 2 and has a track record of struggling in that exact spot. If Tampa Bay’s patchwork staff can scrape together enough innings and their lineup finds a way to solve a pitcher who’s held hitters to a .157 average all year, they have a real path to forcing a Game 6 back in Milwaukee; if not, the Brewers close out the franchise’s first World Series title tonight at Tropicana Field.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Venue: Tropicana Field – 8.5 runs per game; 41-45-3 O/U
- Series Score: Brewers 3-1
Key Players
Milwaukee Brewers
- William Contreras — Last Game: 0/4, BB
- Jackson Chourio — Last Game: 2/6, 2B
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero — Last Game: 1/5, R
- Yandy Diaz — Last Game: 1/4, BB
Photo Credit: REUTERS
