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Best Bet: U6 (-115) at bet365
Score Prediction: Canadiens 3, Jets 2
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The Pick: Canadiens 3, Jets 2
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head trends along with Winnipeg data as the home team.
Game Betting Analysis
The Under seems to be the best play here based on the data. The Under has hit in three straight meetings to go along with four of the last five (one push) and seven of the last nine as well. Winnipeg has also hit the Under in six straight home games when coming off overtime. Everything is also pointing to the Jets covering the puck line, but that is far too expensive. Montreal is -120 on the moneyline, which isn’t a terrible look as the Habs have won 10 of 15 road games against the Western Conference while Winnipeg has dropped 12 of 13 games when facing the Atlantic Division at night. Despite Montreal’s goalie issues this season, we have more conviction in the Under here.
Canadiens-Jets Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Winnipeg’s Outdoor Build vs. Montreal’s Goaltending Dilemma
Winnipeg brings a complete, balanced game into this Heritage Classic, and it starts in net. Stuart Skinner has a .912 save percentage, 12th among qualified NHL goaltenders, and the Jets are allowing just 2.90 goals per game as a team, 10th-best in the league. That stability lets Winnipeg’s offense do the rest: Kyle Connor has scored nine goals in just 10 games, the third-highest total in the NHL, with four of those coming on the power play, and he leads the team with 12 points as Winnipeg (4-3-3, 11 points) rolls into Princess Auto Stadium with a 1-1-0 all-time record in outdoor games. A team that can both score and get consistent, above-average goaltending is built for exactly this kind of unpredictable, low-percentage outdoor setting.
Montreal, meanwhile, is a genuinely strange case statistically: the Canadiens actually win the underlying battle more often than not, holding 53.0% of shots on goal (10th in the NHL) behind captain Nick Suzuki’s strong start (five goals, seven assists in nine games), yet they’re bleeding goals at a brutal 3.78 per game, 29th in the league — a team winning the shot battle and losing the scoreboard. The culprit is clear: starter Jakub Dobes carries an .847 save percentage, 43rd out of 45 goalies with at least four starts, while backup Jacob Fowler has actually outperformed him at 3-1-0 with a .900 save percentage, raising a real question about who should be between the pipes for a nationally-televised outdoor event. If Montreal rides Dobes and he continues to leak soft goals the way he has all season, Winnipeg’s complete game and reliable goaltending give the Jets a real path to a comfortable outdoor win — but if Fowler gets the nod and finally gives Montreal the goaltending to match its puck-possession numbers, the Canadiens have a real chance to steal this one outdoors.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, October 25, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: TNT
- Location: Winnipeg, Alberta, Canada
- Venue: Princess Auto Stadium – n/a
Key Players
Montreal Canadiens
- Cole Caufield — Last Game: 4 shots
- Juraj Slafkovsky — Last Game: 3 shots
Winnipeg Jets
- Kyle Connor — Last Game: 1 goal, 3 shots
- Mark Scheifele — Last Game: 2 shots
Photo Credit: REUTERS
