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Best Bet: U231.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Best Bet: MIN -1.5 (-105)
Score Prediction: Timberwolves 116, Raptors 114
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The Pick: Timberwolves 116, Raptors 114
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head stats and Minnesota during a back-to-back, while the Timberwolves to win or cover remains on the table too.
Game Betting Analysis
We’re siding with the Under based on some data for this one, which won’t be easy picking a winner for. Toronto has covered the spread in three of four meetings with Minnesota, although lost outright in four of the last five meetings. The Timberwolves are 4-0-1 ATS when facing the Eastern Conference, while Toronto is actually a perfect 5-0 SU when facing the Western Conference on the road. More data does point towards Minny, though, winning seven straight games outright as the favorite while covering the spread in those seven games as well. The home team has also covered the spread in eight of nine meetings, while Minnesota has also won 10 straight home opening games. So there is conviction in Minnesota covering, but the Under has hit in eight straight games for Minnesota when playing the first game of a back-to-back. Also, four of the last six meetings. So while either market seems sufficient to test, there is more conviction in the total due to Toronto’s ATS success against Minnesota in recent meetings.
Raptors-Timberwolves Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Toronto’s Disruptive, Foul-Prone Defense vs. Minnesota’s Rebounding Edge
The Raptors have opened 2-0 behind one of the most disruptive defenses in the league early this season: Toronto is forcing 13.5 steals per game, well above Minnesota’s 9.5, and blocking 6.0 shots per game, double the Timberwolves’ 3.0. Scottie Barnes has been the engine of that two-way identity, putting up 28 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, two steals and two blocks in Friday’s win over Washington, the kind of stat line that shows up at both ends of the floor. A defense that takes the ball away at that rate can turn a game into track meet in its favor, generating easy transition points off live-ball turnovers rather than needing to grind out stops in the half court.
Minnesota, meanwhile, counters with a rebounding and physicality edge that could neutralize exactly that advantage: the Timberwolves are out-rebounding opponents at 56.5 per game to Toronto’s 52.0, including a 37.0-to-34.5 edge on the defensive glass, and Toronto’s aggressive, high-steal style comes with a real cost — the Raptors are committing 30 fouls per game compared to Minnesota’s 22.5, which means more trips to the line and more second-chance opportunities for the Timberwolves to erase whatever Toronto generates off takeaways. Minnesota has also shown it doesn’t need its superstar to carry the night to win comfortably: after Anthony Edwards dropped 45 points and nine threes in the season opener against Miami, he shot just 5-of-23 for 15 points in Thursday’s 115-93 win over Orlando, yet the Timberwolves still cruised, suggesting their depth and rebounding margin can cover for an off night from their best player. If Toronto’s steals and blocks translate into enough fast-break points to outweigh the extra possessions Minnesota gets on the glass and at the line, the Raptors can push to 3-0 — but if the Timberwolves keep controlling the boards and limiting second-chance damage the way they have all week, Minnesota should be able to grind out a win even if Edwards isn’t efficient.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 25, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: NBATV
- Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Venue: Target Center – n/a
Key Players
Toronto Raptors
- Kawhi Leonard — Last Game: 16 points, 9 rebounds
- Scottie Barnes — Last Game: 28 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards — Last Game: 15 points
- LaMelo Ball — Last Game: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
