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Kyler Murray fared well in his return from an ACL injury, throwing for a modest 249 yards in a winning effort against the Atlanta Falcons. While he did add an interception to his zero touchdowns, Murray still flashed his elite arm as he spread the ball around the field. He now takes on the hottest young gun in the league with CJ Stroud running away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award as he has rebuilt this Texans offense into a formidable unit.
Kyler Murray Over 238.5 Passing Yards
It was expected that Murray would show some form of rust after a long layoff as he rehabbed his injury. His 249-yard performance was especially eye opening in his first game back, now expected to only improve as he gets more play time under his belt as well as shredding a below average Texans coverage unit.
While the Texans have been a welcoming surprise for their immediate turn around, their secondary has still posed as an issue. As of writing, the Texans secondary currently ranks 20th in Def Pass DVOA, 25th in Def Pass EPA, 16th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 16th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Their elite ranking in Pressure Rate is also expected to dip back to more league average as their front seven deals with injuries.
Derek Stingley Jr is expected to give the Texans secondary a boost in production, yet he is also rounding back into form after an injury. Jimmie Ward is also currently listed as questionable, potentially being a big loss in their back end if he is not able to give it a go. That may put the Texans linebackers in a poor position as they have to decide between helping in coverage or anchoring on an island to crash down on Murray’s running ability, creating gaps in coverage.
Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Murray may have not thrown for a touchdown in his return, but he is in as good a position as any to succeed in that department this time around. Finding success through the air is the Cardinals best course for success as Houston’s front seven has been a formidable run stopping unit.
Throwback to Kyler Murray’s last game against the Texans pic.twitter.com/6sqH66vEHD
— Jason Hayes (@JasonHayesNFL) November 17, 2023
Houston currently ranks 13th in Def Rush DVOA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, seventh in Def Rush EPA and fifth in Def Adjusted Line Yards. With a rising total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace and it will be on Murray to capitalize when the Cardinals enter the red zone. With his ability to shift the linebacking unit as they respect his running ability, Murray should have no issue with creating gaps in the end zone for him to throw for a touchdown.
CJ Stroud Over 22.5 Pass Completions
Even with Devin Singletary finding rush success for what felt like the first time for the Texans this season, it will still be on CJ Stroud and a heavy dose of the pass to get the win against the Cardinals. The pass attack has fared far better than the ground game for the Texans, ranking 28th in Rush DVOA while the pass attack grades out at second in Pass DVOA.
Better yet, the Cardinals defense has been one of the worst in the league in terms of defending the pass as they rank 30th in Def Pass DVOA. A brunt of that lowly grade comes from their inability to defend mid field success, clocking in at 31st in Def Pass Success Rate.
Devin Singletary Anytime Touchdown
With Dameon Pierce expected to miss this game due to injury, expect Devin Singletary to carry another heavy workload as the Texans lead back against a rush defense that ranks 28th in Def Rush DVOA and 24th in Def Rush EPA.
His odds for this prop vastly differ between sportsbooks, being listed as high as -145 and as low as -110. This is a great example of why you should have as many books as you can use at your disposal and always line shop for the best available number. This is a difference of $35 for a $100 bettor.