New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds, Depth Charts (12/25/23)
The NFL’s Christmas Day schedule (12/25/23) includes an NFC East divisional showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) and the New York Giants (5-9) at 4:30 p.m. EST in Philadelphia. Betting odds have the Eagles as heavy favorites at -12 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 42 total points.
This article provides Giants vs. Eagles analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the under.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Best Bet
This game looks a lot more interesting than anyone expected just a few weeks ago. The Eagles are on the verge of collapse after losing three games in a row, while the Giants have turned around their season with three wins in their last four games.
If ever there was a game for the Eagles to get back on track, this would be it. Not only are they the far superior team in this matchup, which is reflected by the 12-point spread, but they also have dominated this rivalry in recent years.
The Eagles have won 16 of the last 19 games between these teams going back to the 2014 season, and they won all three matchups last year (including an NFC Divisional Playoff Game) by a combined score of 108-45. They have swept the Giants six times in the last nine seasons, and they need to make it seven out of 10 this year if they want to guarantee winning the NFC East and securing the No. 2 seed.
Considering the Eagles’ dreadful recent performance, the big question in this game is whether they can bust out of their current slump and play the way they are capable of playing. If they do, they should easily cover the spread, but it’s hard to be confident in them playing that well until we see it.
While we have confidence that the Eagles will end their losing streak and get back in the win column this week, we simply cannot lay 12 points with them against anyone right now. If we were playing the spread, we would be taking the points, but our recommendation is to go in a different direction when betting on this game.
Instead, the best bet in this game is the under on 42.5 total points. While the Eagles’ defense has received a lot of the blame during their current losing streak, their offense arguably has been even worse relative to expectations. They scored only 17 points last week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and was missing one of its best players in Devon Witherspoon. While they have faced some tough defenses, they have scored fewer than 20 points in three straight games and 21 or fewer in four of their last five games.
For all the love that Tommy DeVito is getting, the Giants’ defense has been playing better lately and is the biggest reason for their recent three-game winning streak. They are 15th in defensive EPA since Week 11 and they are allowing just 18 points per game over their last four games.
The big risk here of course is that if the Eagles’ offense gets back on track, they could explode against the Giants’ defense. The Eagles’ defense also has been horrible lately, so it’s unlikely that Tommy DeVito will be completely shut down the way he was last week. Still, it’s hard to trust either offense right now, and we expect the Eagles’ defense to be much better this week under new DC Matt Patricia.
Both the spread and the total are tough calls in this game, and we personally won’t be playing either one, but the under is the best option.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Best Bet: Eagles win 24-13 | Best Bet: under 42.5 total points
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
The spread in this game is moving in the Eagles’ direction after the lookahead line opened at -10.5, as it now sits between -11.5 and -12.5 depending on the sportsbook.
The over/under is trending down after opening as high as 44 points, as it is currently set between 41.5 and 43 at different books.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 27-15.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Key Injuries
The Eagles will be missing several starters in this game including Pro Bowl LG Landon Dickerson and CB Darius Slay. Other key players whose status is worth monitoring include WR DeVonta Smith, RG Cam Jurgens and LBs Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow.
The Giants have a rather lengthy injury report, but it’s mostly back-up or rotational players, with the only two starters being DT Dexter Lawrence and S Xavier McKinney.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Giants vs. Eagles below.
New York Giants’ offensive line vs. Philadelphia Eagles’ pass rush
The Eagles’ defensive line is underperforming so far this season. They are 11th in pressure rate and 13th in sacks with 39 on the season. While those numbers are still above average, they were 2nd and 1st, respectively, in those categories last season with largely the same defensive line.
This could be the week they finally dominate a game, as the Giants once again have arguably the worst offensive line in the league. They have allowed the most sacks (76) and have been sacked at the highest rate (15.6% of dropbacks) in the league, and in both cases it’s not particularly close (the next worst team is the Jets with 61 sacks allowed at an 11.1% rate). They are also dead last in both adjusted line yards (a run blocking metric) and adjusted sack rate (a pass blocking metric), and they are PFF’s lowest-graded pass-blocking team.
In these teams’ three games last season, the Eagles averaged five sacks per game. If they can’t get some sack production this week, then they probably can’t be expected to improve that aspect of the defense for the rest of this season. We expect they will be much better this week, which is a big reason why our best bet is the under.
Philadelphia Eagles’ run game vs. New York Giants’ run defense
The Eagles started getting D’Andre Swift more involved in their offense last week, as his 18 carries were his most since Week 9 and tied for his second-most this season. He was productive with those carries, averaging over 4 yards per attempt.
D’Andre Swift had a good outing against the Seahawks. This was my favorite run of the day from him.
Split Zone. Swift sees the 6 defenders crashing inside w/ Mailata having outside leverage on 55. So he quickly bounces, wins 1v1 vs 23, and makes sure to slide down in bounds! pic.twitter.com/9oKea5KizQ
— Charles “Chux” Maranan (@ChuxMaranan) December 20, 2023
The Giants’ defense is much better against the pass (18th in DVOA, 16th in EPA) than they are against the run (29th in both DVOA and EPA). They are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (131.6) and the second-most yards per carry (4.7).
The Eagles have not been committed to the run this season, as Swift’s usage has been inconsistent. But the matchup dictates a run-focused game plan, and if they are playing with a lead, then we should see heavy use of the run in this game. If the Giants can’t slow them down, then they will have no chance to win this game, and it will be much tougher to cover the spread.