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Best Bet: MIL ML (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Brewers 3, Dodgers 2
The Pick: Brewers 3, Dodgers 2
We’ll take the Brewers based on head-to-head trends along with Milwaukee’s 18-4 run.
Game Betting Analysis
The Brewers have the data backing them, along with the arm, so we’ll lean in that direction as the Brew Crew has won three of the last four meetings against the Dodgers. Milwaukee has won five of seven games when playing as a favorite and coming off a win, while posting an 18-4 record over the last 22 games. However, the Dodgers have won an enormous 10 straight playoff games against the NL Central – while the Brew Crew has only scored two runs or less in seven straight playoff games against Los Angeles. In the last four meetings, though, Milwaukee has posted six, four and five runs – so we’ll fade the playoff pressure with a much more matured and unafraid Brewers team in this series.
MLB Game Trends & Betting Data
Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: The Dodgers’ Championship-Caliber Lineup Depth vs. Milwaukee’s Team-Wide Power Shortage
Both teams arrive off 3-1 series wins — the Dodgers over Atlanta, the Brewers over San Diego — but it’s the way Los Angeles closed out its series that sets up this angle. In the NLDS opener alone, the Dodgers beat the Braves 5-3 with all five runs coming via home run: a two-run shot from Teoscar Hernández in the fourth, a two-run shot from Kyle Tucker in the sixth, and a solo shot from Max Muncy in the sixth. That’s a lineup built around top-of-the-league power all season, and it’s running into a pitcher, Jacob Misiorowski, who’s already shown he’s not immune to it: in last year’s NLCS, his fastball sat 100-102 mph through five shutout innings against the Dodgers before dropping to 97.6-99.1 mph in the sixth, when Tommy Edman delivered the go-ahead hit on his 73rd pitch of the night. A 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts make Misiorowski one of the best stories in baseball this year, but this is a lineup with both the recent track record and the one-swing power to turn a shutdown start into a one-pitch mistake.
The Brewers, meanwhile, are walking into Game 1 with a real structural problem on offense: Milwaukee hit just 149 home runs as a team this season, tied for 28th in all of MLB, leaving Jake Bauers’ team-leading 26 homers and .890 OPS as close to the only proven power source in the lineup. Jackson Chourio is the next-best threat, having just become the first Brewers player to post three straight 20-homer seasons before turning 23, reaching the mark on August 29 — but beyond those two, the rest of the order, Christian Yelich and William Contreras in particular, has carried its recent hot stretch on contact and on-base skills rather than power, which leaves little margin if the Dodgers strike first via the home run the way they did in Game 1 of the NLDS. If Misiorowski matches or exceeds his own dominant season-long form deep into this game and Milwaukee’s contact-oriented bats manufacture just enough off Tarik Skubal in the middle innings, the Brewers can still turn this into the low-scoring, pitcher’s-duel game they’re built to win — but if either arm cracks the way Misiorowski’s did against this very lineup last October, the power gap becomes the whole story.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Venue: American Family Field – 9 runs per game; 35-43-4 O/U
- Series Score: Tied 0-0
Key Players
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani — Last Game: 0/3, R, BB
- Freddie Freeman — Last Game: 0/4
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jackson Chourio — Last Game: 1/4, RBI, BB
- William Contreras — Last Game: 2/5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
