Ravens-Falcons DFS Picks: Best Value Plays, NFL Week 5

The Atlanta Falcons host the Baltimore Ravens to cap off Sunday’s 13-game slate, which begins at 9:30 a.m. ET in London. Week 5’s Sunday Night Football matchup features a Falcons offense rejuvenated by Michael Penix Jr.’s return in Week 3. The Ravens, meanwhile, will look to overcome Lamar Jackson’s absence, with the former MVP set to sit out due to an ankle injury.

Here are the best DFS picks for Sunday night’s Ravens vs. Falcons showdown. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons DFS Picks

POS	Player	Matchup	Salary
QB	👑 Michael Penix Jr.	BAL @ ATL	$14,100
WR	Drake London	BAL @ ATL	$9,800
RB	Derrick Henry	BAL @ ATL	$11,000
RB	Brian Robinson Jr.	BAL @ ATL	$5,800
TE	Kyle Pitts	BAL @ ATL	$4,800
DST	Falcons	BAL @ ATL	$4,000

👑 Michael Penix Jr., ATL/QB/MVP ($14,100)

Penix has thrown for over 220 yards in each of his first two starts back and added a TD in each. His accuracy has been the most impressive aspect, completing 73.3% of his passes and ranking in the top five in QB rating. He now faces a Ravens defense that has ranked around the middle of the pack this season, allowing 215.3 passing yards per game. The defense will also have its hands full on the ground with Bijan and Brian Robinson Jr., who combined for five TDs on Monday. Look for Penix and his aerial weapons to capitalize on the attention the run game demands.

Drake London, ATL/WR ($9,800)

After a frustrating start to the season, London is all smiles as Atlanta has steamrolled to two straight wins. After just six combined receptions over the first two weeks, he has hauled in 14 catches for 300 yards since Penix’s return. Penix has targeted the former USC standout 16 times across those two games — a team-high 35.6% target share — with London commanding a 42.1% first-read share with Penix under center, which would lead the league over a full season. More than half of his yards in that two-game sample have come after the catch (159 YAC), and he now draws a favorable matchup against a Ravens secondary that has been susceptible to big WR performances.

Baltimore has conceded the third-most receptions and sixth-most yards to opposing WRs this season. Despite his two big yardage games, London has yet to find the end zone this year. The 6’4″ wideout leads the team with 24 red-zone targets, and based on the volume he is seeing, it feels like only a matter of time before he and Penix connect for a score. Look for the connection to continue against a struggling Baltimore secondary on Sunday night.

Derrick Henry, BAL/RB ($11,000)

With Jackson confirmed out for Sunday night’s matchup, there is likely no better workhorse RB to count on over the last decade than Derrick Henry. Baltimore will likely feed the 32-year-old back, who is still at the top of his game in his 11th NFL season. He leads the league with 7 TDs across the first four games and ranked fourth in total rushing yards (374) following his 73 yards on the ground last week. His 22.25 carries per game lead the league, and you can expect a heavy dose once again without Jackson in the lineup.

Baltimore rushed 17 times to only 9 passes after Jackson exited the game last Sunday. While they certainly trust long-time backup Tyler Huntley, Henry will most certainly be the focal point of the offense with the former MVP out. It is worth noting how tough the matchup against the Falcons may prove to be. Atlanta ranks first against the run allowing a league-low 48.25 rushing yards per game. They have faced some depleted backfields to open the season, and Henry will certainly be a different beast, especially with the volume of carries he will see on Sunday night. 

Brian Robinson Jr., ATL/RB ($5,800)

Brian Robinson Jr. has established himself as one of the best backup RBs in the league despite playing behind one of the top rushers. He now has three straight games of double digits carries, and had a season high 14 carries in Monday night’s win. While Bijan still dominated the overall offensive snap count, Brian played a very healthy 42% and has carved out a concrete role with his hard nose running. He has now scored all four of his TDs this season across the last two games and could be in for another solid outing against a Baltimore defense that has allowed 10 TDs this season.

Robinson has been extremely efficient with his limited carries this season and has served as the perfect change of pace back for the Atlanta offense. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on the season and faces a Baltimore front conceding 100.0 yards per game on the ground. The two Robinsons have spearheaded the second-best rushing attack in the NFL, and Sunday night’s game will be a good litmus test vs. a slightly above average run defense.

Kyle Pitts ATL/TE ($4,800)

Coming off a career season, Pitts has been a disappointment to start his sixth year with the Falcons. The former fourth overall pick had just two receptions for 20 yards combined over the first three games before surpassing those numbers in a single outing last week — 3 catches for 47 yards. While those numbers are modest, Pitts appears to be trending in the right direction heading into a primetime Week 5 matchup.

He faces a Ravens defense that could be missing some key pieces. Baltimore allows 36.3 yards per game to opposing TEs and could be without both CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable) and LB Trey Hendrickson (out). With Pitts’ involvement seemingly growing week over week, he should be in for another step in the right direction.

Falcons, D/ST($4,000)

The Falcons defense rounds out our lineup after a notable turnaround that has coincided with the offensive upgrade. After allowing 27 PPG in the first two games, Atlanta has conceded just 19 PPG over the last two contests and allowed 332.5 total yards per game in that span. They now take on a Ravens offense without its engine.

Baltimore was held scoreless in the second half following Jackson’s exit last Sunday against the Titans. The Ravens will once again rely on Huntley, who completed the second half throwing for under 10 yards per reception in limited action. The playbook will be significantly constrained with Jackson out, and an inspired Falcons defense could capitalize with turnovers and force an already limited offense into some difficult situations.

Photo Credit: REUTERS