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Best Bets: Max Muncy , Teoscar Hernandez , Kyle Tucker , & Jake Bauers
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, October 11th
Game 1 of the NLCS is shaping up as a legitimate ace duel, with Tarik Skubal — 2.72 ERA since being acquired by the Dodgers at the deadline, dominant in his NLDS Game 1 start against Atlanta — opposing Jacob Misiorowski, who’s turned in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory at 1.80 ERA with 252 strikeouts. That kind of pitching depth usually means fewer homers, not more, but both arms have shown real cracks under pressure, and a ballpark that ranks inside the top 10 in MLB for home runs allowed gives hitters on both sides a path. Here are the four batters we’re most confident in to go deep in Game 1.
Max Muncy Home Run Odds
He already delivered in a nearly identical spot, taking a reliever deep with two outs in the ninth of NLDS Game 2 for the Dodgers’ only other run that night. He’s left-handed, which gives him the platoon advantage against the right-handed Misiorowski, and his patient, pull-power approach is the profile that tends to wait out a max-effort strikeout pitcher rather than chase him. He also gets to do it at American Family Field, a park that ranks inside the top 10 in MLB for home runs allowed despite otherwise suppressing scoring.
Teoscar Hernandez Home Run Odds
One of three Dodgers to homer in that NLDS Game 1 game, where the Dodgers’ offense scored exclusively via the long ball. He’s right-handed against a right-handed Misiorowski, the one unfavorable platoon matchup in this group, but Misiorowski has a documented fade pattern — in his last start against the Dodgers (2025 NLCS Game 3), his fastball sat 100-102 mph through five innings before dropping to 97.6-99.1 in the sixth, when he surrendered the go-ahead hit on his 73rd pitch. If that pattern repeats, Hernández’s at-bats later in the game carry real upside even against the tougher handedness matchup.
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Tucker already went deep in the Dodgers’ all-homer NLDS Game 1 win over Atlanta, and as a left-handed hitter he draws the platoon edge against Misiorowski’s right-handed, 101+ mph heat. Misiorowski’s numbers this year are historic — 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, 0.80 WHIP, .157 opponent average — but his own NLDS Game 1 start went just four innings and allowed two runs, proof the stuff doesn’t play perfectly every time out. Tucker is a year-round plus-power bat who doesn’t need a slump-proof pitcher to get to, and the platoon split gives him as clean a look as anyone in this lineup gets against this arm.
Jake Bauers Home Run Odds
Jake Bauers the Brewers with 26 home runs and a .890 OPS (.269/.396/.495) across 139 games, in a lineup that’s tied for 28th in MLB with just 149 team homers — he’s not just their best power source, he’s close to their only one. September cooled his power specifically (3 HR in 16 games) but not his eye, with 18 walks against 19 strikeouts over that stretch, so the swing decisions are still sharp even if the ball hasn’t carried. He’s left-handed facing a left-handed Skubal, a real platoon negative worth flagging, but the gap between his power output and the rest of this roster is wide enough that I’m staying on him anyway.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
