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Best Bet: U150.5 (-114) at BetRivers
Best Bet: GSV ML (-115)
Score Prediction: Valkyries 76, Dream 74
The Pick: Valkyries 76, Dream 74
We’ll take the Under based on Golden State trends and head-to-head data, while the Valkyries winning outright also has supported statistics to consider.
Game Betting Analysis
With the series heading back to San Francisco, we’ll take the Under for numerous reasons – but mainly the same that hit for us in Games 1 and 2. The head-to-head heavily favors the Under here, hitting in three of four games in this series alone but also going further back to seven of nine head-to-heads overall. Golden State has also hit the Under in a remarkable 11 of 12 games when playing as the favorite and coming off a road win. Our only scare is the low line of 149.5, so if you like Golden State then consider the moneyline over the spread which is -1.5-points. Golden State has won 14 straight games when coming off a road win while covering seven straight off a road win. The Vals have also won five of seven meetings and six of nine overall.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Dream vs. Valkyries Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Angel Reese’s Paint Dominance vs. Kiah Stokes and Golden State’s Interior Defense
Angel Reese has been the single biggest reason Atlanta is tied 2-2 heading into a Game 5 at Chase Center. In the Dream’s two series wins, she’s averaged 25.5 points and 14 rebounds, and she posted a double-double in each of the first three games of the Finals, making her the only player besides A’ja Wilson with back-to-back 20-point, 10-rebound games in Finals history. Her Game 3 line, 21 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals on 7-of-12 shooting with two made threes, came in a game Atlanta won 97-71 behind a 44-20 advantage in the paint, and her 19.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in the postseason actually exceed her regular-season averages of 16.4 and 12.1 across 43 games (45.1% shooting). Atlanta is 15-0 this season, regular season and playoffs combined, whenever Reese makes a three-pointer, a small but telling split given she shot just 19.3% from deep on the year; when she’s hitting from outside, the rest of her interior game tends to be unstoppable too. If that version of Reese, the one who bullied Golden State’s frontcourt in Games 2 and 3, shows up again in Game 5, Atlanta has more than enough shot-creation around her, with Rhyne Howard (17.7 points per game in the regular season, 19 in Game 4) and Jordin Canada’s playmaking, to win on the road.
The Valkyries, meanwhile, have already shown exactly what their path to containing her looks like, because they’ve done it twice. Golden State allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the WNBA this season (75.1), and in Game 4 that defense held Reese to 8 points on 2-of-12 shooting, with several missed layups down the stretch of a 67-62 win that evened the series. Kiah Stokes has been the anchor of that effort in the paint specifically, setting a WNBA Finals record with 14 blocks across the series, breaking the old mark of 12, including 3 more in Game 4 alone, and her rim presence is the clearest explanation for how a team that got outscored 44-20 in the paint in Game 3 turned around and shut down the interior just one game later. Golden State doesn’t need one player to match Reese’s scoring to win these games, either: Veronica Burton and Tiffany Hayes each scored 13 in Game 4, Gabby Williams bounced back from a Game 1 knee collision that had limited her to 14 and 15 points on a combined 8-of-33 shooting in Games 2 and 3 to score 17, and Burton delivered the dagger three-pointer after Atlanta had cut a 16-point halftime deficit down to one possession in the fourth quarter. If Stokes and that interior defense repeat their Game 1 and Game 4 form and keep Reese off the offensive glass and out of comfortable post position, Golden State has a real path to closing out Game 5 at home and taking a 3-2 series lead back to Atlanta.
Game Information
- Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: USA, CNBC, Peacock
- Venue: Chase Center – 155.8 ppg; 12-16 O/U
- Series Score: Tied 2-2
Key Players
Atlanta Dream
- Rhyne Howard — Last Game: 19 points, 8 rebounds
- Angel Reese — Last Game: 8 points, 9 rebounds
Golden State Valkyries
- Gabby Williams — Last Game: 17 points, 5 rebounds
- Veronica Burton — Last Game: 13 points, 5 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
