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Best Bet: U47.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Best Bet: ATL ML (+110)
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Saints 23
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
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The Pick: Falcons 24, Saints 23
We’ll try the Under based on New Orleans home trends and head-to-head data, while the Falcons as an upset pick is on the table to consider
Game Betting Analysis
There are two looks here based on the betting data, the first being the Under which has hit in three straight meetings to go along with five of the last seven as well. Also, the Saints have hit the Under in eight of nine home games when facing NFC clubs. As for the ATS market, the Falcons seem to be the way to go, and with plus-value as a +1.5-point underdog, the moneyline is on the table. Atlanta has won its last four road games against the NFC, while New Orleans has seen the road team cover the ATS market in five straight games. While New Orleans has covered four of five meetings, three of those games saw Nola as the underdog. The underdog has, however, covered four straight meetings along with seven of the last eight – which circles back to Atlanta.
Falcons-Saints Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Tyler Shough’s Turnover Habit vs. Atlanta’s Awakened Ground Game
New Orleans has the yardage to win this game and the giveaways to lose it. Tyler Shough leads the NFL in dropbacks (147 through three games) and ranks second in passing yards (917) with eight touchdowns, but he’s also coughed the ball up six times — three interceptions, three fumbles — including two separate three-giveaway collapses that directly cost the Saints wins. He threw two picks and lost a strip-sack fumble in the Week 1 loss to Detroit, then blew a 27-16 fourth-quarter lead against Las Vegas with four consecutive turnovers. Atlanta’s pass rush, even without James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker, still has Za’Darius Smith and a newly-extended Gervon Dexter Sr. up front, and it sacked Shough nine times across two meetings last season. Shough takes a sack on 20% of his pressured dropbacks, 27th-worst in the league — exactly the kind of pressure that’s turned into fumbles and desperation throws all year.
Atlanta’s counter is its ground game, not its secondary. The Falcons rank 29th against the pass and are without top corner A.J. Terrell Jr., which should let Chris Olave (27 catches, 375 yards) eat against a banged-up back end. But Bijan Robinson and a rushing attack averaging the second-most yards per game in the NFL (173) face a Saints front missing both starting edge rushers, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings. If Atlanta leans on Robinson the way it did behind Michael Penix Jr.’s clean, efficient Week 3 upset of Green Bay (18-of-25, 256 yards, TD), it can shorten the game, limit New Orleans’ pass-heavy possessions, and let its pass rush pick off a Saints offense that’s already proven it beats itself. This is Atlanta’s first trip back since a 19-17 finale loss in January, and New Orleans is hosting its first MNF game at the Superdome since 2022 — but neither storyline will matter as much as whether Shough can get through four quarters without handing Atlanta the game himself.
Game Information
- Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (ET)
- Network: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
- Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
- Venue: Caesars Superdome – 62 ppg; 1-0 O/U
Monday Night Football Betting Information
Key Players
Atlanta Falcons
- RB, Bijan Robinson — Last Game: 29 carries, 194 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Drake London — Last Game: 9 catches, 194 yards
New Orelans Saints
- QB, Tyler Shough — Last Game: 29/42, 255 yards, 4 TD, INT
- WR, Chris Olave — Last Game: 9 catches, 107 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
