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Best Bet: U43.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 23, FIU 20
The Pick: Jacksonville State 23, FIU 20
We’ll take the Under based on FIU’s data this season which includes the country’s second-best defense and no more than six points allowed the last two games.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a tricky one, but the safest play is the Under. Let’s start with the ATS first, as Jacksonville State has seen the favorite cover the spread in seven of eight games. The Gamecocks have also won outright in 10 straight games when playing in October and have won three of four meetings outright against FIU. However, FIU won the last meeting while also winning its last two games by a combined score of 42-6. With FIU’s form, and Jacksonville State escaping a pair of wins against Kennesaw State and Georgia Southern – the total is where we land as FIU’s defense actually ranks a stunning second nationally. FIU is 1-4 to the Under this season and has allowed no more than 16 points in four of give games. With uncertainty throughout this game, we’ll stand behind FIU’s stout defense and take the Under
FIU-Jacksonville State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: FIU’s Elite Run Defense vs. Caden Creel’s Scrambling Ability
FIU has quietly built the best defense in Conference USA over the last month, and that’s the single biggest reason to like the Panthers on the road Tuesday night. Willie Simmons’ group has allowed just 12.2 points per game on the season — second-stingiest in the league — and has been even better lately, surrendering a combined six total points across their last two outings, a stretch that includes a 22-3 win over New Mexico State. The run defense has been the engine: 433 yards allowed on the ground through five games (86.6 per game, 2.8 per carry), with DeAndre Boykins (29 tackles), Demetrius Stewart (22) and Elisha Baldridge (20 tackles, 6.0 for loss) anchoring a front that’s also racked up 13 sacks. That matters enormously against a Jacksonville State offense built around quarterback Caden Creel’s legs, and FIU’s defense has already shown it can rattle him — Creel has thrown five interceptions in six games, including two in the Gamecocks’ win over Middle Tennessee. If FIU’s defense plays Tuesday the way it’s played the last two weeks, it gives the Panthers a real chance to win a game their own offense, averaging just 18.8 points, probably can’t win on its own.
Jacksonville State, meanwhile, comes in red-hot and sitting 2-0 in Conference USA, winners of three straight — including a 31-27 escape over Georgia Southern and a Garrison Rippa field goal with 51 seconds left to beat Kennesaw State 27-26 — and they’ll have home-field advantage at AmFirst Stadium. Creel has been the catalyst throughout: 66.5% completion for 1,423 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air, plus 86 carries for 405 yards (4.7 per carry) and four more scores on the ground, with Deondre Johnson emerging as his go-to target at 18 catches for 338 yards and two touchdowns. Creel’s rushing has been the separator in Jacksonville State’s closest wins — 120 yards on the ground in a four-overtime game at Ohio and 119 more in the win over Middle Tennessee — and the Gamecocks are out for revenge after FIU beat them 27-21 in last year’s meeting. If Creel’s legs put the same kind of stress on FIU’s front that they did against Ohio and Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville State has a real path to making it four wins in a row and avenging last season’s loss.
Game Information
- Date: Tuesday, October 13, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU, ESPN+
- Venue: AmFirst Stadium – 50 ppg; 2-1 O/U
- Conference: CUSA
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Under 43.5 (-108)
Key Players
FIU
- RB, Devonte Lyons — Last Game: 14 carries, 78 yards
- RB, Anthony Carrie — Last Game: 16 carries, 37 yards, TD
Jacksonville State
- QB, Caden Creel — Last Game: 26/44, 311 yards, TD, INT; 10 carries, 30 yards, TD
- WR, Deondre Johnson — Last Game: 4 catches, 112 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
