Jaguars-Ravens Player Props: Trevor Lawrence, Chris Rodriguez, Jr. and Zay Flowers Best Bets, NFL Week 9

What was envisioned as a marquee matchup at the start of the season unfolds under very different circumstances on the Week 9 edition of Thursday Night Football.

The host Ravens come into their showdown against the Jaguars in dire straits at the quarterback position, as both Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) are sidelined, possibly for the season. Even current starter Joe Fagnano is going to be at less than 100 percent while managing an ankle injury. 

Jacksonville therefore checks into the contest as 9.5-point road favorites in a game with a very modest 40.5-point projected total, setting the stage for how we want to approach betting this game.

With the stage set, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Thursday’s action. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.

Jaguars-Ravens Best NFL Week 9 Player Props

• Trevor Lawrence Under 26.5 Pass Attempts 
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over 28.5 Rushing Yards
• Zay Flowers Over 39.5 Receiving Yards 

Trevor Lawrence Under Pass Attempts 

As customary, our three props will have a common theme weaving through them, that being a game the Jaguars are widely expected to control. We’ll begin backing that prognosis by supporting the idea of a relatively low-volume game through the air for Lawrence, who’s averaging 28.3 pass attempts per contest but has actually been under 26.5 pass attempts in three of seven games. 

Those three occasions have seen Lawrence throw 23 times or fewer, and two of them came in very comfortable victories over the Browns and Colts in Weeks 1 and 8, respectively. With this being a short week and the Ravens highly unlikely to seriously threaten Jacksonville with Fagnano or Kedon Slovis under center, it’s likely head coach Liam Coen opts for the “let’s burn the clock, minimize exposure and get out of here with a win” approach on the road on a short week at this stage of the season. 

Baltimore still features a daunting front seven and can get after the passer, so even if Bhaysul Tuten is sidelined with his lower-body injuries, the running game, which we’ll focus on next, is likely to have the spotlight on it Thursday. 

Original Line Publish: 26.5

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over Rushing Yards

As just alluded to, Tuten appears to be trending down for suiting up Thursday after sustaining ankle and foot injuries in the Week 8 romp over the Colts. With the Jags listed as heavy favorites and a long 10-day break ahead for Jacksonville, it would seem probable they’ll tread carefully with their valuable No. 1 back, especially with a high-quality backup option in Rodriguez available. 

Rodriguez has filled his complementary role to near perfection to date, averaging crisp 4.6 yards per carry on 45 rushes to date. Rodriguez has been in a clear No. 2 role thus far, yet he’s rushed for at least 35 yards on four occasions while logging single-digit carries in three of those games. If Rodriguez does end up starting Thursday, he could easily be set for 15-17 carries at minimum in a game where Jacksonville should have the benefit of a positive game script.

This number clearly doesn’t seem to take a potential Tuten absence or significant limitations on hs part into account, making the Over very appealing.

Original Line: 28.5

Zay Flowers Over Receiving Yards

Flowers’ yardage prop has a definite “how the might have fallen” aspect to it, but that’s not exactly accurate. While this line is ridiculous compared to Flowers’ body of work this season and the figure he carried as recently as four days ago, there’s been unfavorable and seismic change for Baltimore’s quarterback situation in that span. As mentioned earlier, Fagnano, who couldn’t connect with Flowers on any of the five passes he threw his way on Sunday against the Bills, will draw the start Thursday night.

After showing some improvement as the game went on Sunday and then getting some practice time in this week, Fagnano should be at least marginally more competent under center against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed 262.0 passing yards per game to QBs and the fifth-most yards to wide receivers (1,370) at a robust 14.4 yards per reception. Jacksonville’s ceded a fairly elevated 67.4% catch rate to wideouts as well, and Flowers is naturally amply capable of hitting the Over on this number even with just a couple of catches. After Sunday’s blanking – and considering the Jaguars have an absolutely elite run defense – Baltimore should have little choice but to try and get their best wide receiver (by a massive margin) involved and going early, which should give the Over a solid chance here. 

Original Line: 39.5

Photo Credit: REUTERS