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Back like we never left. Not much exposition needed on this one without any games yesterday so we’ll dive right into it — tonight’s pick for NBA first basket is De’Aaron Fox at odds.
Challenge Update: 10 Miles in Jeans
Any consistent followers of our daily NBA picks know that we’re doing monthly challenges tied to each of these. To start the season, I promised that if I didn’t hit on at least three of my picks before Thanksgiving, I was going to film myself walking around the Brickell City Centre mall (Miami) in a dress. Thankfully, we put ourselves in a good position by hitting three of our first nine picks.
So lucky for you guys, we can get into some double trouble. I won’t be making these picks without stakes, so let’s fast-track to the next challenge.
Here’s my challenge: If I don’t hit two more first basket picks by December 4, then I will run 10 miles in jeans and document every mile. Every mile where I don’t break 9:30 minutes adds another mile to the challenge.
Why De’Aaron Fox For NBA First Basket vs. the Mavericks
The efficiency is what sells me on Fox at odds. Through seven games, Fox is shooting 58.2% from the field (39-of-67) and has scored in double figures every night. He’s getting to his spots early in possessions, attacking downhill and pulling up from the midrange. Those are exactly the looks that show up on a team’s first trip down the floor.
The matchup helps too. Dallas will be without Dereck Lively II (foot), its best rim protector, which should open up the paint for a guard who lives there. On top of that, Victor Wembanyama gives San Antonio the edge on the opening tip, and when the Spurs get the first possession, the ball is usually in Fox’s hands.
The risk is obvious: this Spurs team has plenty of options, from Wemby to Dylan Harper (season-high 25 vs. Minnesota) to Stephon Castle. But at +600, we’re getting a fair price on the most efficient guard on the floor with a soft interior to attack.
NBA First Basket Picks Tracker
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | De’Aaron Fox | +600 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 11/02/2026 | Zach Edey | +470 | 1.00 | 3-7 | ▲11.50 |
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | 3-6 | ▲ 12.50 |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
