NBA First Basket Pick of the Day: Anthony Edwards (10/21/26)

Another day, another first basket pick. We’re 0-1 on the season after Tyrese Maxey stole Jaylen Brown’s thunder. I’d love to say “the process was there,” but you can always say that for these types of bets. We lost. Today’s a new day and the beauty of these long shot props is that we just need to hit once a week.

As the season progresses, I’ll be tracking how these picks do along with how many units up or down we are. You probably don’t care but if nothing else I’ll be able to humor myself. Anywho, today’s pick for first basket scorer is Anthony Edwards at odds.

He Led the NBA in First Baskets Last Season

Edwards scored the opening bucket 15 times during the 2025-26 regular season — the most in the league despite starting just 60 games (25% hit rate!!). Miami’s most frequent first basket scorers were Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins with nine and eight first baskets, respectively.

Rudy Gobert and the Opening Tip

Minnesota won the opening tip over 55% of the time last season, largely thanks to the size of Rudy Gobert who returns for them this season. There is some risk here because Adebayo and Giannis were also good at securing the opening possession for their teams. We believe that’s baked into the odds, though, giving us a good price on Ant-Man.

The Price

At odds, Edwards carries an implied probability of about 14.29%. For the player who scored the first basket more than anyone else last season, we think that’s value.

For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.

NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season