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Best Bet: O54.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
The Pick: Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
We’ll take the Over based on Notre Dame’s stats against Florida schools and Miami’s 2026 betting data.
Game Betting Analysis
The betting data is all over Notre Dame with the success against ACC schools. The Fighting Irish are 13-0 ATS when facing the ACC at home, winning outright in 25 straight home games against the conference. However, Miami-Florida has won the ML and ATS markets in the last two meetings, entering 5-3 ATS this season and playing like the number one team in the country. The key here is Malachi Toney being out, and what impact that will have. With all of the above, taking Notre Dame is perfectly fine, but what about the total? The Over has hit in seven of eight games for Miami-Florida this season, while Notre Dame has gone Over in its last six games when facing a school from Florida. The Over or Notre Dame are where the numbers point us to, but we will stick to the Over as betting against Miami (even without Toney) isn’t quite settling yet.
Miami Florida-Notre Dame Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Notre Dame’s Banged-Up Defense Gets Relief vs. Miami’s Offense Without Malachi Toney
No. 4 Notre Dame’s clearest path to knocking off unbeaten No. 1 Miami got considerably easier this week: Hurricanes star receiver and Heisman candidate Malachi Toney — who has 1,027 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns on 73 catches this season, part of 182 catches since the start of last season, the most of any receiver in the country — suffered a high ankle sprain in practice on Nov. 4, will have surgery, and is ruled out for Saturday’s game and beyond. That’s a major blow to an offense that still ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring (47.6 points per game) and No. 2 in total yards (534.9 per game) behind quarterback Darian Mensah, who is completing better than 80 percent of his throws this season (2,425 yards, 25 touchdowns, one interception). Notre Dame’s defense, No. 1 in the FBS in yards allowed (236.1 per game) even while missing defensive tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye (both questionable and considered unlikely to play), linebacker Drayk Bowen (out, ankle) and cornerback DJ McKinney (out for a second straight game), now won’t have to find an answer for the matchup it spent all week preparing for: All-American corner Leonard Moore shadowing Toney. Without their top target, Mensah and Miami’s offense will need other weapons to produce the way they haven’t had to ask of them all season.
Miami, meanwhile, still looks like the better overall team on paper even with Toney sidelined, and its path to the upset leans on an offense explosive enough to overcome the absence: the Hurricanes convert 54.5 percent of their third downs (2nd nationally) and score on 92.9 percent of their red-zone trips (15th), with a run game (202.5 yards per game, 21st) that doesn’t depend on any one receiver. Notre Dame counters with its own efficient attack — C.J. Carr has thrown 18 touchdowns against a single interception (66.7 percent completion) and just posted 210 yards and two scores in a 35-13 win over Navy — backed by a nation-best +14 turnover margin and the fewest penalty yards in the FBS (28.9 per game). Notre Dame is favored by 4.5 at home, and its only loss all season was a 28-24 upset to BYU on Oct. 17, when the Irish were still unbeaten and ranked No. 2. If Mensah and whoever steps up in Toney’s place can still move the ball against a Notre Dame defense dealing with its own injury issues, Miami can survive without its best player; if not, Notre Dame’s health advantage at receiver could be the difference in handing the Hurricanes their first loss of the season.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: NBC
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium – 51.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
- Conference: ACC vs. Independent
Key Players
Miami-Florida Hurricanes
- QB, Darian Mensah — Last Game: 22/29, 274 yards, 3 TD
- RB, Mark Fletcher, Jr. — Last Game: 13 carries, 43 yards, 2 tD
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- QB, CJ Carr — Last Game: 19/29, 210 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Jerome Bettis Jr. — Last Game: 6 catches, 78 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
