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The ALDS got started Saturday, and both the White Sox and Rays scored low-scoring victories on the road and at home, respectively.
The trend of elite pitching in the MLB Playoffs has a good chance to continue Monday with a pair of dominant right-handers taking the mound, and they inform a pair of our bets.
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Let’s break down a trio of viable player prop opportunities for Monday’s high-stakes battles. Don’t forget to check out our MLB daily trends page for game odds, data, and insights.
Best MLB Division Series Player Props
- Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Strikeouts
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
- Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Gavin Williams (Guardians vs. White Sox) Over Strikeouts
Williams flashed his elite swing-and-miss stuff throughout the regular season, racking up 248 Ks across 184.1 innings on his way to a career-best 33.2% strikeout rate and an excellent 15.3% swinging strike rate as well. The fireballing right-hander also had drastic home/road splits that favored the former, as Williams pitched to a 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 across 107.2 innings at Progressive Field.
Williams recorded at least eight strikeouts on 15 occasions during the regular season, an outstanding rate that was partly constituted by one eight-strikeout outing against Chicago. Williams also finished on the hook in two other instances against the Sox with seven Ks apiece on Aug. 8 and Sept. 14 starts, and over 109 career encounters with current Chicago bats, Williams has 33 strikeouts overall.
The White Sox posted an elevated 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month of the regular season as well, while Williams went 3-1 to the Over on the 7.5 over the last four starts heading into his final outing of the regular season on Sept. 25, when he lasted only 3.1 innings but still recorded four Ks in that brief period of time.
Original Line Publish: 7.5
Cody Bellinger (Yankees at Rays) Over Hits + Runs + RBI
Bellinger followed up a solid regular season where he delivered a .264 average, .767 OPS and 45 extra-base hits, including 23 homers. The veteran slugger continued to display the above-average plate discipline that’s been his signature over the last several seasons as well, as Bellinger boasted a modest 15.8% strikeout rate alongside his highest walk rate (10.5%) since the 2020 season in Los Angeles.
With the help of a useful .338 on-base percentage, Bellinger found his way to 2.1 hits + runs + RBI per game during the regular season, including 1.8 per road game. Monday, he draws a matchup to start the game against Freddy Peralta, whom Bellinger knows well from his National League days and against whom he owns a career .429 average, 1.270 OPS and a pair of extra-base hits in 18 career encounters.
Peralta also gave up a .254 average and .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season between his time with the Brewers and Rays, while also seeing 17 of the 23 homers he surrendered coming from that handedness of hitter.
Original Line Publish: 1.5
Cam Schlittler (Yankees at Rays) Over Strikeouts
We’ll stick with the Yankees and turn to their elite starter in Schlittler, who’s mowed down hitters in similar fashion to the Guardians’ Williams since the start of the regular season. The breakout right-hander finished his first full season in the majors with 239 Ks across 193.2 innings, good for an 11.1 K/9 and a 14.3% swinging strike rate. What’s more, Schlittler was actually at his very best on the road, where he authored an 8-2 record, 10.7 K/9, 1.16 ERA, 0.74 WHIP in 109 innings.
Schlittler wrapped up the regular season with a three-inning outing against the Rays where he quickly recorded five strikeouts, and earlier in the season, he delivered matching eight-strikeout efforts against Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field. Schlittler has recorded 26 strikeouts in 87 career encounters with current Rays hitters, and he rang up at least seven Ks in an impressive 20 of 33 regular-season starts before racking up 10 over 6.1 innings against the Red Sox in the first round of the postseason.
Schlittler will take the mound on five days’ rest Monday, so his arm should be well-rested for a matchup that he’s typically thrived in. Consequently, this manageable number is one we’ll back on him eclipsing.
Original Line Publish: 6.5
PHOTO CREDIT: REUTERS
