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Best Bets: Ben Rice , Miguel Vargas & Jo Adell
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, October 5th
Monday’s ALDS slate is loaded with intriguing matchups — the Yankees look to take control of their series against a red-hot Rays team at Tropicana Field, while the White Sox and Guardians battle it out at Progressive Field with the long ball very much in play. Here are our top three picks to go deep tonight.
Ben Rice (Yankees vs. Rays) Home Run Odds
Rice has had a monster 2026 — 28 home runs in just 377 plate appearances with a .590 slugging percentage — and he’s already shown he can do this specific thing against this specific opponent: his first multi-homer game of the year came against Tampa Bay, a 2-for-4, two-homer, five-RBI night. Peralta has been nearly untouchable since being traded to the Rays in August (5-0, 0.79 ERA over his last six starts, AL Pitcher of the Month in September), so this isn’t a case of attacking a weak arm — it’s betting on a hot lefty bat who’s proven he can do damage against this exact team, in a dome where there’s no wind or weather to worry about and the ball will carry consistently all night.
Miguel Vargas (White Sox vs. Guardians) Home Run Odds
Vargas is in the middle of a huge power season — 33 home runs — and lines up well against a real platoon flaw in Williams, who’s been dramatically worse against right-handed hitters this year: a 4.50 ERA and 14 home runs allowed in just 72 innings against righties, compared to a 3.06 ERA and 13 homers in 109 innings against lefties. Vargas bats right-handed, putting him squarely in Williams’ problem zone. The one thing working against him is the park itself — Progressive Field suppresses right-handed power hard (a home run factor of just 75, well below league average) — so this is a bet on the pitcher-specific weakness overriding the ballpark, not a free pass.
Jo Adell (Guardians vs. White Sox) Home Run Odds
Adell has been the hottest bat on Cleveland’s roster since they acquired him at the deadline — 7 home runs in just 180 at-bats — and he’s set to bat cleanup at DH for Game 2, exactly the kind of recent-form signal that matters in October. He’s also the one player FanDuel’s own research specifically flagged as a home run candidate in this series. The matchup helps: Burke allowed three home runs in his last outing and isn’t even a guaranteed as the starter — Chicago has been using a modified opener plan, which adds uncertainty and volatility that favors an aggressive, locked-in hitter getting his swings in before the bullpen takes over. The one flag here is that Burke has actually allowed more damage to lefties than righties this year, so the handedness matchup isn’t perfect, but the recent power and lineup spot are strong enough to outweigh that.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
