Share 
Best Bets: Victor Mesa Jr , Jose Ramirez , Chase DeLauter & Jonathan Aranda
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, October 16th
Victor Mesa Jr
Mesa has gone from afterthought to legitimate power threat in the span of two months. He reached 14 home runs by late September, including a Statcast-tracked 421-foot blast, and over the final month of the regular season he ran a 1.015 OPS — numbers that look nothing like a typical rookie fourth-outfielder. He didn’t cool off when the calendar flipped: he homered during Tampa Bay’s ALDS sweep of the Yankees, part of a stretch where he and fellow riser Ryan Vilade were specifically credited as the engine behind that series win. The matchup tonight plays to his strengths — rather than facing one settled, dominant arm, he’s catching Cleveland’s bullpen-game approach, a mix-and-match of Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi that hasn’t had to hold one shape all series. A hot, aggressive bat like Mesa’s tends to do more damage against a parade of arms than a single starter who’s seen the lineup twice already.
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez’s regular season was uncharacteristically doubles-heavy for him — just 12 home runs against 27 doubles in 125 games — but he’s an entirely different hitter in October. He’s batting .348 with a 1.183 OPS this postseason, going 8-for-23 with 8 RBI, and that stretch includes back-to-back home runs in ALDS Games 4 and 5, the second one a go-ahead, two-run, series-clinching blast. He carried it straight into this series, too, going 3-for-5 with two runs and an RBI in ALCS Game 1, plus a heads-up read on a 2-strike count that helped set up Jo Adell’s go-ahead double. He’s also reached base with two or more total bases in five of his last six games, which is why oddsmakers have priced an over-2-total-bases prop on him at +143. As a switch-hitter, he gets to pick his side against right-hander Nick Martinez, and right now he’s simply the hottest hitter in this series regardless of who’s on the mound.
Chase DeLauter
DeLauter’s season line (16 home runs, 30 doubles, a 131 OPS+) undersells how specifically well-suited he is for tonight’s matchup. Against right-handed pitching this year, he’s hit .269 with a .450 slugging percentage and an .808 OPS over 126 games — and 13 of his 16 home runs, roughly 80% of his power output, have come against righties specifically. Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay’s probable Game 4 starter, is a right-hander, which lines up almost perfectly with DeLauter’s platoon strength. The one real caveat worth stating plainly: he has a swing-and-miss rate in the 93rd percentile of MLB, so the strikeout risk is real on a given pitch. But the power profile against this specific pitcher-handedness is too well-established to ignore, and it gives Cleveland a second home run threat on a different part of the roster than Ramirez.
Jonathan Aranda
Aranda quietly put together a career year: 22 home runs (a new career high), a 121 OPS+, and 159 hits that tied for 9th-most in the AL, to go with 92 RBI. He’s already shown he can do it on this stage, too — a solo home run in ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees. Context matters here: Yandy Díaz has openly said this Rays team doesn’t have many true power bats and plays more of a contact-based game, which makes Aranda’s pop one of the only consistent middle-of-the-order thump sources left now that Junior Caminero is scuffling (four strikeouts on 11 swings in Game 3). He’s going to see the same Cleveland bullpen mix as Mesa tonight — a pen that’s been excellent in the aggregate (2.08 playoff ERA) but is still built on matchup-dependent relievers rather than one proven stopper, which is exactly the type of look a disciplined, career-high-power bat like Aranda can take advantage of.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
