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Top Goal Picks: Tage Thompson , Matvei Michkov & Sam Reinhart
Anytime Goal Prop Predictions & Odds: NHL Best Bets for Wednesday, October 21st
Even though there are just two games dropping puck on Wednesday, there are still a wide range of Anytime Goal Scorer props to groom through, including Tage Thompson and Matvei Michkov who will be locked into a duel while taking advantage of a pair of back lines who struggle in coverage.
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To round out the card, we turn our attention towards Sam Reinhart with the Florida Panthers forward in a great position to build on his momentum after scoring a Goal in his last start against Seattle. For more information, check out our NHL betting trends page for the latest daily game odds, insight, and data.
Tage Thompson (Sabres vs. Flyers) Goal Odds
Since the start of the regular season, Tage Thompson has been able to create high quality shot attempts at a consistent rate, generating 0.52 Expected Goals while averaging 4.67 Shots on Goal per game.
In a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers, Thompson will be able to continue to light the lamp by attacking a back line that has plummeted to 26th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Dan Vlader struggling to mask the Flyers regression on defense with his individual production in net, giving up 3.58 Goals Against per game while averaging a Save Percentage of .889.
In 5-on-4 Situations, Thompson’s usage rate has steadily declined while operating in the back line, mustering up just 0.07 Expected Goals, the fourth highest mark on the team. With the Flyers struggling to keep a defender near the vicinity of the puck, Thompson will be able to generate a higher volume of shot attempts, increasing his chances of finding the back of the net.
Matvei Michkov (Flyers vs. Sabres) Goal Odds
On the other side of the ice, the Flyers have been abysmal on offense, ranking dead last in Expected Goals For. Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, Matvei Michkov has still been able to pressure the net, averaging 0.31 Expected Goals per game.
Heading into Wednesday night’s contest against the Sabres, Michkov will be able to create higher quality Shots on Goal in front of the crease by weaving the puck through a back line that ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots. When left unprotected, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been unable to stand his ground, averaging 3.59 Goals Against per game.
When in the Power Play, Michkov is accompanied by Trevor Zegras, giving him a productive forward to help pull defensive attention away from him. With the Sabres shading their coverage towards Zegras, the width of Michkov’s shooting lanes will widen, making it easier to convert his shot attempts into Shots on Goal.
Sam Reinhart (Panthers vs. Seantors) Goal Odds
After a slow start to the year, Sam Reinhart has been able to get into a groove, scoring five Goals in his last four starts. During that span, Reinhart has been aggressive, averaging more than four Shots on Goal per game.
Even though the Ottawa Senators do excel in coverage, the Florida Panthers versatility on offense will help shift the back line, creating more space in the middle for Reinhart to exploit. Once isolated, negative regression will rear its ugly head over Linus Ullmark who is averaging a Save Percentage of .945, leaving him vulnerable to getting beat while scrambling to match Reinhart’s output in front of the net.
Reinhart’s workload is also unaffected when in the Power Play, leading the Panthers first unit in Shots on Goal with an average of 0.45 per penalty. With the Tkachuk brothers roaming on the outside, the Senators will be forced to stretch out their coverage, allowing Reinhart to rifle off shot attempts in front of the crease at a higher rate.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
