NBA First Basket Pick of the Day: Jarrett Allen (10/22/26)

Ant went for 45 last night but decided to be a late bloomer. I respect and relate to it (I’m also holding out hope that I can be a late bloomer — things aren’t looking up though), but it does stink feeling like you had a good read and a bad result. Such is life. We just need to hit a few of these. To up the stakes for us all, I’m going to make a personal proclamation that applies to all future first basket picks. If I don’t hit at least three of these a month, let it be known that I will walk around the Brickell City Center mall (in Miami) in a dress. If only my mother could see me now.

That said, I’m feeling good about tonight’s pick. Our third pick of the season belongs to Jarrett Allen at odds. He is questionable, so there is some risk here, but we believe that gives us some good odds on a consistent first bucket getter.

Allen vs. Embiid at the Opening Tip

Allen has been one of the most reliable jump-ball winners of the last 30 years. As of last year, he ranked in the top 10 in jump-ball win rate of any player since 1996-97. Joel Embiid is no pushover on the tip, and that’s part of why this is a long-shot price. But if Cleveland gets the first possession, Allen is a natural target.

High-Percentage Looks

Allen scored the first basket 15 times during the 2025-26 regular season. Almost all of his shots come at the rim. With James Harden and Donovan Mitchell running the pick-and-roll, he’s always a candidate for an early lob or dump-off. Scoring first is about making the shot, not just taking it, and few starters on the floor tonight make theirs at Allen’s rate.

The Price

At . Allen carries an implied probability of about 14.29%. Most of the market’s attention is on Embiid, Mitchell, and Mobley, which leaves a price on the Cavs center that we think has value.

For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.

NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season