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Losing first basket bets always stinks, but I believe the three worst ways to lose are 1) the guy you picked gets the opening shot and misses, 2) your pick scores the second basket of the game, and 3) the obvious chalk selection that you didn’t make scores first. Option three happened to us last night with Wemby scoring the first bucket over our pick (De’Aaron Fox). Wemby’s odds are something we’ll monitor throughout the season. Maybe there is value in the chalkiness. On to the next.
Today, we’re rolling with the Swedish Sniper himself (can I trademark this?), Pelle Larsson at odds. Let’s get it.
Why Pelle Larsson For NBA First Basket vs. Warriors
Note: This pick is conditional on Giannis sitting out
The opening tip is where this case starts. Miami has won every tip tracked this season, six of six, and scored the game’s first field goal in five of those six. Golden State has won only 25% of its tips across eight games and scored the first field goal just twice.
Bam Adebayo should control the jump, which puts the ball in Miami’s hands on the first trip. Adebayo has three first baskets this season and is still the main threat. With Giannis out, though, the first set has to go somewhere else, and Larsson is a smart cutter and efficient finisher who works well off Bam’s handoffs. He’s shooting 55.3% from the field and 46.2% from three, and he went 5-for-5 for 18 points against Indiana. On the first trip, a backdoor cut or a catch-and-shoot three off a Bam DHO is a realistic way for him to score.
On the number: +600 implies about a 14.3% chance. If Miami wins the tip and scores first roughly two-thirds of the time, Larsson needs about a one-in-five share of Miami’s first buckets for this to be a fair price. That’s a reasonable expectation for a starter in a lineup without Giannis.
NBA First Basket Picks Tracker
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | Pelle Larsson | +600 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 11/04/2026 | De’Aaron Fox | +600 | 1.00 | 3-8 | ▲10.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | Zach Edey | +470 | 1.00 | 3-7 | ▲11.50 |
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | 3-6 | ▲ 12.50 |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
