NBA First Basket Picks Today (Oct. 29): Deni Avdija

We’re back on the board, baby! After a short dry spell, Tyler Herro came through for us when we needed him most. It’s hard not to be romantic about this prop.

With Herro’s make, I only need to correctly pick one more first basket bet before Thanksgiving — lest I have to wear a dress in Miami’s Brickell City Centre Mall. I like to think that Herro (former Heat player) follows our posts here and knew what I was up against. Having sympathy for my situation, knowing how I’d be perceived in a mall that he has undoubtedly visited, he delivered. Obviously that’s ridiculous but I like telling myself these stories so I can feel good. Onward.

Our NBA first basket pick for today (Oct. 29) is Deni Avdija at odds. Here’s why we like the Trailblazers forward to score the first basket in tonight’s game against the Grizzlies.

Why We Like Deni Avdija for NBA First Basket

First things first, we fully expect Grizzlies’ center Zach Edey to win the opening tip. If this were a coin-flip jump ball, Avdija’s price would be a lot shorter. Losing the tip hands Memphis the first possession, something they’ve been pretty good at converting. Incredibly, Memphis has scored in all four of their first possessions this season (scoring the first basket in three of their four games so far).

So why bet on a Trailblazer? We expect this trend to end tonight — frankly, they’re due. I have no math to prove this but we are going to trust the process (are they going to go 82 for 82 on first possessions this year?)

If they don’t convert, Avdija is our guy. He’s the engine of the Blazers’ offense — bringing it up in transition, initiating sets and attacking the rim. When Portland draws up its first look, there’s a very good chance it’s designed for him. In a market that only pays on the first made field goal (free throws don’t count), you want the player with the most ways to get a shot up early, and Avdija checks that box.

The game script helps, too. With Edey anchoring the paint for Memphis, Portland has every reason to get Avdija going downhill early — either in transition before the big man can set up, or by forcing Edey to defend in space. A quick, scrappy start with a couple of empty possessions on both ends only increases the number of chances Avdija gets before someone breaks the seal.

Now the math. At , the implied probability is about 11.8%. Give Portland around a 40% chance to score first even after losing the tip, and give Avdija roughly a 30% share of the Blazers’ first buckets as their primary option. That lands him around 12%, still above what the odds imply. It’s not a lock (nothing in this market is), but it’s the kind of price we’ll take every time.

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For more on how the NBA first basket market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.