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Top TD Picks: Rico Dowdle , Chris Rodriguez Jr.
It’s time for the Sunday afternoon Week 1 slate, so we’re going to zone in on two anytime touchdown props. I’m targeting two running backs at appealing prices in favorable spots at home. Each of their teams is projected to play with a lead, which bodes well for more rushing volume. With that in mind, let’s dive into why I like Rico Dowdle and Chris Rodriguez Jr. to find the end zone on the Week 1 Sunday PM slate.
Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game, along with our parlay picks below.
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Rico Dowdle (Steelers vs. Falcons) Touchdown Odds
Rico Dowdle has rushed for 1,000+ yards in the last two seasons. He’s been quite efficient during this stretch, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. We saw him put up some monster games for the Panthers last year, including back-to-back 180+ rushing yards.
He’s now in a committee with Jaylen Warren with the Steelers. However, I think that Dowdle is the better bet for production this year. After the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy as head coach, one of his first moves was to sign Dowdle. Remember, McCarthy coached Dowdle while the two were with the Cowboys back in 2024. Dowdle’s familiarity with the scheme puts him ahead of Warren for me.
That’s why I’m riding with him over Warren in this terrific matchup at home vs. the Falcons. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, so they’re projected to play with the lead, which bodes well for rushing volume. On top of that, Pittsburgh has a 23.5-point team total, meaning they’re projected to score 3+ touchdowns. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Dowdle here.
Check out our NFL Week 1 Player Prop Picks
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Jaguars vs. Browns) Touchdown Odds
We’re staying with the theme of “familiarity with scheme” by targeting Chris Rodriguez Jr. to score a touchdown. After rushing for 500 yards and six touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry for the Commanders, Rodriguez is reunited with Liam Coen in Jacksonville. Remember, Rodriguez played for Coen in college at Kentucky.
That’s why, even though I think Bhayshul Tuten will be more productive in this backfield, I’m riding with Rodriguez on this prop. There’s a chance that he takes away red-zone carries, especially after his six scores from last year, so I like the value at the current price. The Jags are eight-point home favorites vs. the Browns, which means they’re expected to control this game.
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has reportedly struggled throughout camp, so there’s a reasonable chance that the Jags defense can get the ball back for their offense early and often. More possessions means more opportunities for Rodriguez to find the end zone. Jacksonville has a 24.5-point total, so they’re projected to score 3+ touchdowns. We’ll bet on Rodriguez to find pay dirt here.
Check out our NFL Week 1 DFS Picks
Photo Credit: REUTERS
