NFL Week 4 ATS Picks: Buccaneers, Commanders & Vikings Best Bets

The NFL season just keeps on keepin’ on, and it’s hard to believe, but we’re at Week 4 and the first week of the NFL season in October. 

Last week, we saw more injuries, headlined by Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who tore his ACL and was ruled out for the season. 

Below are my top three picks against the spread in Week 4. Be sure to check out our Week 4 top teaser pick as well.

Best NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
• Washington Commanders +3.5
• Minnesota Vikings -10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Through three weeks of the NFL season, the Green Bay Packers have been downright atrocious and are coming off a big-time home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, 35-14. 

One of their most core issues has been their offensive line. They’ve allowed 59 pressures through two games, which is the second most in the NFL. In Week 3 alone, Packers quarterback Jordan Love was hit 16 times, according to Pro Football Focus. 

They’ve now brought in a few veteran reinforcements to help patch up this offensive line, including Kevin Zeitler, Mekhi Becton, and Laken Tomlinson.

Thankfully, they have a bit of an easier matchup this week in terms of incoming pressure, as the Buccaneers are 28th in pressures with only 30. That said, when they do pressure opposing quarterbacks, they hold them to a 38.1% completion rate. 

So now the question becomes: can a bad Buccaneers pass rush succeed against a bad Packers offensive line, or will the offensive line do enough? 

I tend to lean toward the Buccaneers’ pass rush. They’ve faced some rock-solid offensive lines so far, including the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. The Vikings and Bengals have allowed the fifth- and sixth-fewest pressures this season, respectively. Also keep in mind that Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles could very well be playing for his job. 

The other angle is that Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is ruled out for three weeks with a thumb injury. Now, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels steps in. Daniels was rock solid in college, posting a 22:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his final season. He also ran for nearly 2,000 yards. 

I expect the Buccaneers’ pass rush to play better, and a combination of Daniels’ mobility and their reliance on running back Bucky Irving should let them cover the spread at +3.5.

Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (London)

Live from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at 9:30 a.m. ET, the Commanders will battle the Colts. Both teams are coming off Week 3 wins, with the Commanders taking down the Seattle Seahawks and the Colts grinding out a win over the now 0-3 Houston Texans. 

In Week 3, Commanders backup quarterback Marcus Mariota looked solid, throwing three touchdown passes. 

As for the Colts, their offense has been slow. That includes running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran for fewer than 70 yards on 23 carries against the Texans. Now Taylor faces a Commanders run defense that allows 82 rushing yards per game, which is ranked third in the NFL. 

Something else I noticed in the Colts’ win over the Texans is that they play an abundance of Cover-3. Since last season, Mariota has completed more than 70% of his passes against that coverage. 

The Commanders have plenty of weapons. As for the Colts, quarterback Daniel Jones doesn’t look right yet. He has an 80.8 passer rating (26th) and is averaging a measly 6.2 yards per attempt. Only five quarterbacks have a yards-per-attempt rate tied with Jones or worse. 

Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

This is a ton of points, but we saw the Dolphins fail to cover this exact number last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Sure, the Vikings aren’t the Chiefs’ offense right now, but the Dolphins are so bad I cannot fathom picking them. 

Over three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 43 pressures and a pressure-allowed-per-dropback rate of 40.2% (11th). 

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson didn’t practice Wednesday with an ankle injury, so it’s fair to think that his status for this game is not looking good. 

Still, the Dolphins will need to contend with a Vikings defense that’s second in the NFL in pressures, with 59. When the Vikings get pressure on the quarterback, the opposing quarterback has completed just 34.1% of his passes for 119 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions combined. 

On top of this, the Dolphins are now without their top playmaker, Achane, for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.

This Dolphins offense cannot score; they’re facing a punishing defense, and the Vikings offense is averaging more than 23 points per game. Additionally, in their only home game this season, the Vikings put up 39 points. 

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