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Our Teaser: Jaguars +8.5 (teased from +2.5) + Seahawks -1 (teased from -7) + Falcons +8.5 (teased from +2.5) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Jaguars +8.5 (teased from +2.5)
Heading into Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars are arguably one of the most well rounded teams in the league, ranking in the top-6 in DVOA and in EPA on both sides of the ball. By reducing the amount of negative variance in their contests with their consistency, the Jags probability of winning increases, shading value towards the number as a two score underdog.
In a highly anticipated matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Jags back end will be able to smother a star studded pass attack that has yet to find their footing, fielding a secondary that ranks third overall in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. When slowed down, the Bengals will be forced to punt early on in their drives, feeding into the Jags total number of possessions on offense to help pull away on the scoreboard.
Leg 2: Seahawks -1 (teased from -7)
With Sam Darnold quickly shaking off the rust, the Seattle Seahawks will have a great opportunity to get back into the win column against the Los Angeles Chargers by taking advantage of a defense that resides in the bottom half of the board in Def DVOA. By generating pressure at a low rate, Darnold will be able to operate in a clean pocket instead of having to throw on the run, improving the quality of his passes.
Speaking of defense, the Seahawks have been dominant three games into the season, hovering in the top-3 in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate. With the Seahawks capable of collapsing the interior with just their defensive line, they will be able to anchor their linebackers in coverage and clog Justin Herbert’s passing lanes. This will make it difficult for the Chargers to stay ahead of the sticks, making them prone to stalling out early on in their drives.
Leg 3: Falcons +8.5 (teased from +2.5)
Even though it is just a one game sample size, it’s hard to ignore how impressive Michael Penix Jr. looked in his first game back from injury, climbing to the top of the board in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and in Success Rate while completing 72% of his passes. With Penix Jr under center, the Falcons were able to elevate their level of play on offense, turning them back into a well rounded unit to help avoid playing in highly volatile track meets.
In a divisional matchup against the New Orleans Saints, expect Penix to build on his momentum by picking apart a secondary that ranks 22nd in Def Pass EPA and 27th in Success Rate. By allowing their opponents to cut the distance to gain in half through the air, the Falcons chances of converting on later downs increases while also giving them the option to keep the ball on the ground to help reduce the amount of havoc in a key play.
NFL Week 4 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars +2.5 | Jaguars +8.5 |
| 2 | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks -7 | Seahawks -1 |
| 3 | Falcons @ Saints | Falcons +2.5 | Falcons +8.5 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
The theme of this week’s teaser is upside, backing a trio of teams that have yet to reach their ceiling while locking them in at a more favorable number to help cover the spread. Even the reigning Super Bowl champions have yet to show how well rounded they are while Darnold recovers from his injury, giving us the opportunity to buy low before the offense catches back up.
The Jags meanwhile have shown how efficient they are on offense, ranking sixth overall in Off EPA. Trevor Lawrence has taken a massive step with his production after a shaky start to his career, rivaling Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott in Success Rate while averaging 8.9 Air Yards per throw.
To round out the teaser, the Saints regression on defense will help Penix recapture the same success he had against the Green Bay Packers in his debut, giving the Falcons the versatility they need to move the ball down the field. When forced to stretch out, Bijan Robinson’s running lanes in the middle will widen, making it easier to generate an explosive play.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
