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Top Goal Picks: Jordan Eberle , Alexis Lafreniere & Andrei Svechnikov
Anytime Goal Prop Predictions & Odds: NHL Best Bets for Sunday, October 11th
Sunday’s trio of Anytime Goal Scorers fit a common theme, targeting a group of players who all currently lead their team in Expected Goals. With each passing calendar day, metrics are more concrete, giving us the opportunity to pick off long odds before oddsmakers adjust.
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Not only do Jordan Eberle, Alexis Lafreniere, and Andrei Svechnikov all pressure the net at a high rate, they also all draw a back line who struggles in coverage, putting them in a favorable position to find the back of the net. If you have not already, check out our NHL betting trends page for the latest daily game odds, insight, and data.
Jordan Eberle (Kraken vs. Capitals) Goal Odds
While the Seattle Kraken have underwhelmed as a whole, Jordan Eberle has still been able to generate high quality shot attempts in front of the net, averaging 0.33 Expected Goals per game.
Heading into Sunday’s contest against the Washington Capitals, expect Eberle to build on his momentum by taking advantage of a back line who resides near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Bobby McMann’s aggression on the opposite side of the second line will also force Logan Thompson to stretch away from the net, creating wider gaps for Eberle to exploit.
In the Power Play, Eberle is joined by Jared McCann, another aggressive forward who commands defensive attention while peppering the net, creating more space for his linemates to crash through. When isolated in front of the crease, the quality of Eberle’s Shots on Goal will improve, increasing his chances of scoring.
Alexis Lafreniere (Rangers vs. Canucks) Goal Odds
After re-tooling their roster in the offseason, the production Alexis Lafreniere has received from his newly acquired teammates has helped him take a step forward with his play on the ice, leading the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.49 while generating two Shots on Goal per game.
In a matchup against the Vancouver Canucks, Lafreniere will be able to consistently pressure the net by relentlessly attacking a defense that ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with Kevin Lankinen struggling to find his footing this season, averaging 7.05 Goals Against per game and an abysmal .792 Save Percentage in five starts.
When in 5-on-4 Situations, Lafreniere is accompanied by Pavel Dorofeyev, giving the Rangers the versatility they need in the front line to stretch out the defense. With more room in the middle, Lafreniere will be able to convert his shot attempts into Shots on Goal at a higher rate and find the back of the net for the third game in a row.
Andrei Svechnikov (Hurricanes vs. Flyers) Goal Odds
After leading the league in Expected Goals For last year, the Carolina Hurricanes have been able to pick up from where they left off, edging out the Vegas Golden Knights for first. Andrei Svechnikov has played a major role in the Hurricanes success this season, comfortably leading the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.85 per game.
With the Philadelphia Flyers on deck, Svechnikov will be able to continue to play at a high level while skating circles around a back line who ranks dead last in Expected Goals Against. Even with Joseph Woll capable of masking Philadelphia’s regression on defense, the Hurricanes assault at the net will force the Flyers goalie to make quick cuts between the pipes, tiring out his legs as the game progresses.
With Seth Jarvis out with an injury, Svechnikov has also been the focal point of the Hurricanes first Power Play unit, averaging 0.38 Expected Goals per penalty. Until Jarvis returns, the Hurricanes offense will continue to revolve around Svechnikov, putting him in a great position to score on a nightly basis.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
