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A classic AFC North rivalry serves as the Week 10 edition of Sunday Night Football, as the Steelers and Bengals face off at Paycor Stadium. The two squads sit atop the division with 6-2 records, but Pittsburgh currently owns the head-to-head tiebreaker after upending Cincinnati by a 30-27 score back in Week 3.
Without further ado, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Sunday night’s action. Don’t forget to check out our NFL betting trends page for game data and insights on the week ahead.
Steelers-Bengals Best NFL Week 10 Player Props
- Rico Dowdle Over 28.5 Rushing Yards
- Tee Higgins Over 5.5 Receptions
- Pat Freiermuth Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Rico Dowdle Over Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren has rightfully garnered the majority of headlines in the Steelers’ backfield, but Dowdle has been playing his complementary role very effectively in his own right since returning from an early-season toe injury. The veteran has averaged 45.7 rushing yards on 10.3 carries per contest over those three games, adding 3.0 receptions for 18.0 yards in the process. Dowdle’s carries have gone up in each week as well, as he has tallies of seven, nine and 15.
Dowdle checks in well rested off the Week 9 bye for a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense that opened the season showing plenty of improvement against the run but has subsequently regressed. Cincy is now surrendering 5.0 yards per rush attempt to all positions, including 4.5 per carry to running backs specifically. Dowdle has a clear role behind Warren and has an impressive 17.4% broken-tackle rate and is gaining 73% of his yards after contact, so gaining at least 29 rushing yards should be within his grasp in a game that should remain competitive throughout.
Original Line Publish: 28.5
Tee Higgins Over Receptions
The Steelers’ combination of a productive air attack led by a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers and a versatile Warren-helmed running game has kept defenses on their heels throughout the first half of the campaign. Teams have often been forced to remain aggressive against Pittsburgh as a result, leading to the Steelers facing the league’s seventh-highest pass play rate (59.4%). The Bengals were one such opponent back in Week 3, as Cincinnati, which typically is more than happy to take to the air, as Joe Burrow had 37 dropbacks to Chase Brown and Samaje Perine’s combined 16 carries.
Higgins finished that 30-27 loss for the Bengals with a 6-90-1 line on seven targets, and he should be in for another busy night Sunday. In fact, the veteran downfield threat has had a couple of massive spike performances since that game, recording a combined 21 receptions for 312 yards and two touchdowns on 27 targets in games against the Jags and Titans. In all, Higgins is 4-2 to the Over on the 5.5 receptions since Week 3, and the Steelers check in having faced an average of 20.3 WR targets per game.
Considering how concentrated Cincy’s targets usually are between Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase and the fact the Bengals are throwing at an AFC-high 66.7% clip (including 68.7% at home), the Over is worth considering here.
Original Line: 5.5
Pat Freiermuth Over Receiving Yards
It’s admittedly been a bit tricky prognosticating Freiermuth’s week-to-week production this season thanks to fellow tight end Darnell Washington’s increasing pass-catching role, but the former still retains a solid role as a tertiary option in the Steelers’ passing attack. Freiermuth has multiple receptions in every game, and he’s averaging 29.4 receiving yards per contest while having gone 5-3 to the Over on the 27.5.
One of the games in which he hit was in Week 3 against the Bengals, when he netted 30 receiving yards on two receptions on four targets. Cincinnati has been a TE-friendly defense all season, as the Bengals are tied for the second-most catches allowed to the position among teams that have already had their bye (53), and they’re also second in receiving yards surrendered to the position in that split (645). The 12.2 yards per catch they’re also allowing to the position is more than several teams give up per catch to wide receivers, and Freiermuth’s 7.9-yard aDOT is the second highest of his career. Given the matchup and the likelihood it’s a fairly high-volume night for the Steelers’ passing attack, the Over is a consideration here.
Original Line: 27.5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
