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Top TD Picks: Rico Dowdle , Chase Brown
We’ve got an intriguing matchup of AFC North division rivals on Week 10 Sunday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers are coming off their bye week, while the Bengals are returning from a win over the Falcons in Spain, so Pittsburgh has the edge when it comes to rest.
This is projected to be a high-scoring game with a total of 49.5 points, so there are plenty of players to choose from to find the end zone. We’re zeroing in on two running backs here in Rico Dowdle and Chase Brown.
Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game, along with our touchdown props below.
Rico Dowdle Touchdown Odds
While Jaylen Warren gets all the headlines, and justifiably so, since he’s been phenomenal this season, we can’t forget about Rico Dowdle. The veteran running back has performed well since returning from injury, rushing for a combined 31 carries for 137 yards and a touchdown, which he scored in his last game.
What’s intriguing for me here is that during this stretch, Dowdle has three carries inside the 10-yard-line, which is tied with Jaylen Warren. This shows that the Steelers have been willing to give Dowdle some red zone carries to spell Warren, putting him in a better spot to find the end zone.
The Bengals have been vulnerable in run defense this year, ranking 26th on the season. When these teams met earlier this year, Warren gashed them on the ground, but Dowdle didn’t play in that game. To that end, we could see Dowdle make an impact in this one.
You can get Dowdle to score an anytime touchdown at +175 odds, so the value is definitely there to take a shot.
Chase Brown Touchdown Odds
Chase Brown is having a disappointing season, rushing for only 397 yards and one touchdown so far. But I’m riding with him to find the end zone for the first time since Week 1 against the Buccaneers.
This play comes down to usage. Brown has five carries inside the five-yard-line this season (55.6% of the Bengals RB usage inside the five) and eight rush attempts inside the 10 (47.1%). In other words, given how he’s been used, he definitely deserves more than one touchdown at this point. The lack of production comes down to variance.
We’re getting Brown at around -105 odds at the time of this article, making this a reasonable price, especially in the game environment. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites against the Steelers, so they’re projected to play with a lead, which could mean more rushing volume.
To that end, we’ll bet on Brown to end the touchdown drought on Sunday Night Football.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
