2026 Open Championship Prop Market Odds, Picks, Predictions & Analysis

We are just two days away from the final major of the 2026 golf season, The Open. If you’re not like me and don’t follow golf religiously day by day, you probably have some questions before locking in your Open Championship bets. Lineups has you covered this week, as we’ll be analyzing everything you need to know about The Open Odds, with analysis continuing throughout the week.

That brings us to the next topic we’ve endeavored to unpack: How to find value across each novelty prop market. So without further ado, let’s dive into our analysis for best bets to make across each novelty prop market for the 2026 US Open.

2026 Open Championship Top Former Winner Odds

My Pick: Collin Morikawa

Best Available Odds: +850

Of all the courses on the Open rota, I believe it’s Royal St. George’s which plays most similarly to Royal Birkdale. Each play to a similar, short yardage, virtually eliminates any advantage to be had for bombers, and features relatively flat fairways by links standards. In other words, they are both ideal venues for the best, most accurate ball strikers in the field to separate. In that regard, it’s no surprise that Collin Morikawa’s Open Championship victory came in his 2021 debut appearance at a venue that, in calm conditions, favored the best ball-strikers over the best scramblers. It is perhaps no coincidence, either, that the 2017 champion at Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth, finished runner-up at Royal St. George’s in 2021.

With winds not appearing to be too overbearing at Birkdale this week, this looks to be an ideal setup for Morikawa once again. If the elements do intervene, however, he’s proven he can handle that too. Morikawa picked up a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at the top of this season, just as Spieth did in 2017. With six top-10 finishes over his last 10 starts, Morikawa is playing major champion-caliber golf right now, and presents appealing value in this market.

2026 Open Championship LIV Lowest 18-Hole Score Odds

My Pick: Joaquin Niemann

Best Available Odds: +400

I’m cautiously optimistic about Joaquin Niemann’s fit for Royal Birkdale, as he has proven in select moments to be a very dangerous player on short, windy, coastal venues that reward premier ball striking. Consistency has been the issue for Niemann throughout his career in majors; however, if there is a market worth backing him in, this is the one for me.

Niemann shot the low round of the day not once, but twice at Shinnecock Hills in last month’s US Open. Unfortunately, he shot a combined 10-over-par in his other two rounds, undoing what could have been a very special week for the talented Chilean. He’s remained hot since then, though, finishing 3rd and T7 and hus next two starts on the DP World Tour. I’m not sure when Niemann will finally piece four quality rounds together in a major, but I do know his A-game is fully capable of cashing in on this prop versus the other 15 LIV competitors at Royal Birkdale.

2026 Open Championship Top Korean Player

My Pick: Tom Kim

Best Available Odds: +186

At the Presidents Cup two years ago, Tom Kim has already begun to separate himself as the best all-around Korean player at the age of just 22. It has been anything but a linear ascent since then, but two years later, he’s surpassed his countrymen in this market as the winningest Korean player on the PGA Tour (4).

Kim is scorching hot leading into Open Championship week, fresh off of a win at the Genesis Scottish Open, and 3rd place finish at the US Open two starts prior. Royal Birkdale demands accuracy, and that has been the foundation to Kim’s success throughout this run of hot form; he ranks top-5 in the field in both Driving Accuracy and SG: APP. Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im are formidable talents in their own right, but I’m not going to bet against the momentum Tom Kim is sustaining now.

2026 Open Championship Top French Player

My Pick: Victor Perez

Best Available Odds: +154

While Victor Wembanyama and Kylian Mbappé may already be at the top of the game their respective sports, the French still have a long way to go before they catch up to the international talent pool in golf.

When it comes to links golf, Victor Perez holds a unique edge compared to the rest of his countrymen, as he spent years living in Scotland to polish up his him in these elements. His win at the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a testament to his love for this style of golf. Links venues or not, Perez’s game has remained sharp for months, with seven top-20 finishes over his last eight starts. That combination of recent form and links experience put him well above the likes of Antoine Rozner, Adrien Saddier, and Martin Couvre in this market.

Top Debutant

My Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen

Best Available Odds: +1300

Thorbjornsen was one of the last men outside of US Open qualifying last month, and was nearly in the exact same position again at The Open before punching his ticket with a T7 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. That marked the 24-year-old’s fifth top-15 finish of the season, in what has proven to be a very boom-or-bust 2026.

It’s that volatility that draws me to Thorbjornsen in this market in particular, as he’s proven he can get hot when all facets of his game are clicking. He also has an ace in the hole on his bag this week, as unlike the other debutants, he’ll have the valuable guidance of JJ Jakovac, who helped Collin Morikawa win The Open in 2021.

2026 US Open Top Lefty Odds

My Pick: Akshay Bhatia

Best Available Odds: +300

The competition amongst lefties continues to get stiffer at The Open. Just three years ago, Lefty Brian Harman hoisted the Claret Jug at Royal Liverpool. This year, Robert MacIntyre is the prohibitive favorite in this market. There is good reason to back MacIntyre on the links, as the Scot has already finished top-10 in three of his first six appearances at The Open, including a T7 finish at Royal Portrush last year. And with finishes of T3 an T10 in his last two starts, he seems to be in great form to chase his first major this week.

However, I have my eyes on a different lefty in this matchup, as I believe Royal Birkdale will accentuate the importance of driving accuracy and approach play, unlike what we typically see from this event. If it’s a premium on accuracy that we get, I prefer Akshay Bhatia to MacIntyre. Bhatia’s form is just as hot as MacIntyre’s, finishing T17 and T5 in his last two starts. He’s also proven to be excellent at managing the wind, picking up a Signature Event win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season.

Best of luck with your US Open bets, and check in each day this week for more US Open analysis!

Photo Credit: REUTERS