2026 PGA Championship Odds: Top Round 1 Matchup Picks To Consider

We are just one day away from the 2026 PGA Championship officially kicking off. That can only mean one thing: dissecting the Round 1 Matchups board!

In this article, we’ll touch on overall matchup betting strategy at the PGA Championship, then jump into our favorite plays to consider before the first tee shot on Thursday.

18-Hole Matchup Strategy At The PGA Championship

I tend to prefer betting in the full-tournament matchup markets, as I’m a firm believer that the larger the sample size, the more likely we are to see the superior player prevail.

The PGA Championship, however, welcomes in more access and information for us to scrutinize leading in. Based on the insights uncovered during practice rounds and course feedback in player interviews, there is still an opportunity to exploit value in the opening round.

Aronimink Golf Club is a departure from the traditional modern PGA Championship stop. It is not treelined, it’s not tremendously long, and fairway landing areas are fairly generous. That diminishes the importance of driving, instead placing an emphasis on approach play and putting.

In analyzing these Round 1 matchups, I’m looking to buy low on players who traditionally have had poor major history, as this figures to be a very unique test, and play more similarly to a traditional PGA Tour venue. Ahead, we’ll go through four of my favorite Round 1 matchup plays to consider for the 2026 PGA Championship.

Top Round 1 Matchup Plays

Alex Fitzpatrick over Jason Day  

Best Odds Available: -112 (DraftKings)

The opening round of a major championship is often the most opportune time to ride the hot hand. There’s an argument to be made that Alex Fitzpatrick – with 2 wins and three top-10s in his last five starts – is as hot as any player in the 2026 PGA Championship field. Fitzpatrick is not the longest hitter in this field, and has found success at behemoths like Doral and Quail Hollow over this stretch of hot form despite that. That gives me confidence that a shorter venue like Aronimink can cater more to his strength of approach play and short game.

By contrast, Jason Day’s form is anything but hot. He is searching for answers with his ball-striking, which is never a place you want to be leading up to a major. With three consecutive finishes outside the top-30 leading in, I do not expect Jason Day to jump out to a hot start on Thursday.

Ludvig Aberg over Jon Rahm  

Best Odds Available: -102 (DraftKings)

Rahm is the more accomplished veteran and possesses higher win equity as a two-time major champion with two wins on LIV this season. By contrast, I’m looking to get exposure to Ludvig Aberg as early into the tournament as possible, as the young Swede has struggled to convert his great play into victories on Sunday.

Aberg may have the highest floor of any player in this field outside of Scottie Scheffler. He’s finished top-10 in five of his last six starts, and continues to bomb the ball on a line off the tee. Rahm’s startling +6 opening round and T38 finish at The Masters have raised questions as to how well LIV’s schedule has prepared him for major competition. If this trend of slow starts continues, I prefer Aberg’s side in this Round 1 matchup.

Hideki Matsuyama over  Robert MacIntyre

Best Odds Available: -112 (DraftKings)

I hate this course fit for Robert MacIntyre. A strong driver who leans on his excellent touch around the greens to scramble in difficult conditions, MacIntyre’s game should translate well in most majors, just not this one. Aronimink projects to be an easier-scoring approach-emphasis course, which diminishes everything MacIntyre does best. The irons have looked lost over his last three starts as well, with no top-40 finishes over that span.

Matsuyama, on the other hand, is a fixture on my First Round Leader card and has shown us time and time again that he can lean on his wedge play to go low. While his last two starts have disappointed, he was a factor in the first major of the year (T12 at The Masters), and his elite iron play has not wavered in 2026.

Sungjae Im over Alex Smalley 

Best Odds Available: -116 (DraftKings)

Alex Smalley is a very talented golfer, but not the caliber of player I expect to rise when the stakes are at their highest. Sungjae has a clear edge in terms of major pedigree, with two top-10 finishes over his last six major starts. Smalley has no finishes inside the top-20 over the same span.

Sungjae looked excellent the last time we saw him, finishing T5 at the Truist Championship. While Smalley’s form has looked strong recently as well, I need to see him prove it on the major stage first before I become a true believer.

Best of luck with your 2026 PGA Championship bets!

Photo Credit: AP/Chris Carlson