Case Closed On Historic Aaron Judge Odds? Longshot AL MVP Bets To Consider
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is perched atop the American League in all three Triple Crown categories, posting a .396 batting average, 16 dingers, and 44 RBI as of Friday, May 23. He also bats for the only AL East club above .500, with the Red Sox and Orioles underperforming expectations. Historically, players on postseason teams are gifted special treatment regarding MVP consideration. Let’s further examine this betting market, with Aaron Judge odds on a historic pace to deliver a second consecutive MVP trophy and third overall.
AL MVP Betting Odds
AL Triple Crown Odds
| Judge To Win 2025 AL Regular Season Triple Crown | BetMGM Sportsbook |
|---|---|
| Yes | +135 |
| No | -200 |
Aaron Judge Odds & Props: Yankees at Rockies (Friday, May 23)
Aaron Judge Odds Make MVP Betting History
After Judge opened the season around +300 to win AL MVP, his price tag shifted near -600 entering May. According to Sports Odds History, those were the shortest MVP odds at that juncture of the season in at least the past five years.
But that doesn’t mean he’s a big liability at the best sports betting sites. At BetMGM Sportsbook, four players (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Mike Trout) have produced a higher percentage of bets than Judge.
Judge leads AL position players in bWAR (3.9) by a substantial margin, which the market reflects. By converting his AL MVP odds to implied probability, he has a 96.15% chance of winning the award, leaving just a 3.85% chance of it going to anyone else on the odds board.
Bettors must wager $2,500 on Aaron Judge MVP odds to win $100. Comparatively speaking, placing a $100 bet on Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP () would earn you $100 if he comes out on top.
So, is there anyone who can catch Judge in the AL MVP race? Let’s examine a couple of options.
Potential AL MVP Longshot Bets
Red Sox 3B Alex Bregman:
Bregman’s bWAR (3.0) ranks second among AL position players, and his price will begin to shorten if the Red Sox creep back into the AL East race. He’s strung together his best start since 2019, helping Boston rank in the top 10 in home runs, RBI, and OPS. However, its starting pitching has landed in the bottom 10 in ERA and FIP.
Let’s say Bregman tallies roughly 40 homers while contending for the AL batting title. I’d expect Judge to have more competition for AL MVP at season’s end, assuming the Red Sox challenge the Yankees for the division crown.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal:
Outside of Ohtani, no pitcher has won the AL MVP over the last 14 years. In 2011, then-Tigers ace Justin Verlander claimed the award on a 95-win club. Granted, Verlander’s biggest competition was his teammate, Miguel Cabrera.
This season, the Tigers are projected to compile 95-plus victories. Skubal, the 2024 AL Cy Young winner, is in line to improve upon last year’s bWAR (6.8). For reference, he placed seventh on last year’s MVP ballot. Among starting pitchers, the 28-year-old southpaw showcases the top-ranked xFIP (2.61) and strikeout rate (33.8%). As noted, representing the most valuable player on the AL’s winningest team doesn’t hurt.
If you’re intrigued by Skubal, Bregman, or another longshot candidate, you’re ultimately fading Judge’s ability to avoid an injury. During four of the previous seven campaigns, he’s spent at least one month on the IL.
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