MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, June 4, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, as Jo Adell, Freddie Freeman, and Austin Riley each failed to hit home runs. We’ve been a lot better lately, so we’ll try to get back on track for Thursday.
Today, we’re going with Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Tyler Soderstrom. Each of these hitters has been swinging a hot bat of late.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 38-156 (-0.22 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, June 4
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez is having a phenomenal season, slashing .316/.426/.649 with 21 home runs in 272 plate appearances. This includes an elite 19.0% barrel rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate. Simply put, this is one of the best hitters in baseball.
The Astros’ slugger has been red-hot at the plate lately. In the last 14 days, he’s slashing .375/.490/.850 with six home runs in 51 plate appearances. We’ll take a shot on him hitting No. 22 tonight.
It’s a matchup against Pirates’ flame-thrower Jared Jones, who is unlikely to pitch more than five innings because it’s only his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery.
With how hot Alvarez has been at the plate, we’ll ride with him in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run Odds
Ronald Acuña Jr. has an underwhelming slash line of .249/.375/.435 with seven home runs in 216 plate appearances. However, the good news is that he’s kept his strikeout rate in check (21.8%) while maintaining a great barrel rate (14.4%).
On top of that, the Braves’ star has been red-hot at the plate lately. In the last 14 days, Acuña is slashing .238/.407/.619 with five home runs in 54 plate appearances. This is the classic case of one of the best hitters in MLB finding their groove after a slow start to the season.
The Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game for this matchup, but the real appeal here is in how well Acuña is swinging the bat lately, rather than the opposing pitcher on the mound.
With that in mind, we’ll take Acuña to hit No. 8 in this spot.
Tyler Soderstrom Home Run Odds
Tyler Soderstrom had a breakout season last year, slashing .276/.346/.474 with 25 home runs in 624 plate appearances. But so far this year, he’s been disappointing, including a .230/.317/.424 slash line with seven home runs in 246 plate appearances.
The good news here is that Soderstrom has strong plate discipline metrics, including a 18.3% strikeout rate, which is down from 22.6% from last season.
On top of that, he’s been mashing at the plate lately. In the last 14 days, Soderstrom is slashing .381/.480/.595 with two home runs in 50 plate appearances. During this stretch, he has a highly impressive 16.0% walk rate and 8.0% strikeout rate.
While up next is a lefty-vs-lefty matchup vs. Shota Imanaga, the Cubs’ southpaw has struggled lately, allowing a combined 20 earned runs in his last three starts. We could see a shorter outing from Imanaga here.
That would give Soderstrom the chance to feast on the Cubs’ bullpen. Why is that appealing here? Because the wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight. That’s why we’re getting a 10-run total.
That makes it an ideal spot to ride with Soderstrom here. Risk 0.1 units.
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