MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, July 17, 2026
We got shut out on home runs for the second night in a row, as both Juan Soto and Bryce Harper failed to go yard. Let’s try to get back on track with a full Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Munetaka Murakami, Matt Olson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Each of these hitters is in a favorable spot.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 62-242 (+0.58 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, July 17
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami is having a fantastic debut season in the big leagues, slashing .232/.371/.540 with 20 home runs in 259 plate appearances. He missed a chunk of action with a hamstring injury, or his numbers would look even better. Since returning from the injury, Murakami has gone 1-for-13 with two walks. I’m betting on him to start the second half on a high note.
The Blue Jays are going with Spencer Miles, who has performed well, but doesn’t pitch deep into games. His deepest outing so far is 4.1 innings, so Murakami will have plenty of opportunities to get to the Blue Jays’ bullpen.
Murakami has an otherworldly 20.0% barrel rate, so he’s capable of going yard against anyone. Any time you can get him at nearly +300 odds, it feels like a nice price, especially when it’s not against a notable pitcher.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Murakami to hit his 21st homer of the season. I’ll be at the game as the good luck charm. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is having a nice bounce-back season, slashing .267/.339/.534 with 25 home runs in 416 plate appearances. Heading into the All-Star Break, Olson had homered three times in his last seven games.
This is a hitter who is on track for 40+ home runs this season, so any time we can get him at longer than +300 odds in a favorable matchup, we have to hop on board.
It’s an exploitable spot vs. Rangers’ right-hander Cal Quantrill, who has a 4.59 xERA on the season, giving him a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.5% barrel rate. Lefties have crushed Quantrill, putting up a .345 wOBA (righties have a .241 wOBA), which bodes well for Olson, who bats from the left side.
Considering this favorable matchup, coupled with Olson’s recent form, we’ll ride with the veteran first baseman to hit his 26th dinger of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong is having an MVP-caliber season if Shohei Ohtani weren’t in the National League, slashing .291/.386/.531 with 21 home runs in 418 plate appearances. He’s improved his walk rate from 4.5% to 11.2% while maintaining a rock-solid 10.7% barrel rate.
This is a good spot at home against Bailey Ober, who struggles with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.63 HR/9 and 9.6% barrel rate. To make things even better, the wind is blowing out at about 7 MPH with 85-degree temperatures at Wrigley Field.
That’s the kind of hitter-friendly weather that we want to target when looking for home run props.
When you combine that with how well PCA has been hitting this season, you have to like him here, even at inflated odds (around +225 at the time of this article). Risk 0.1 units.
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