New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl First Touchdown Scorer Odds & Best Bets
Super Bowl LX features a rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. These teams played for the title in Feb. 2015, and it was one of the best Super Bowls in NFL history.
Tom Brady orchestrated a 10-point comeback in the fourth quarter against the vaunted Legion of Boom, and Malcolm Butler sealed the game by intercepting Russell Wilson at the goal line. The victory gave Brady his fourth championship to tie the legendary Joe Montana.
Seattle seeks to avenge its heartbreaking loss, and online sportsbooks have the Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites. Sam Darnold is the frontrunner to win Super Bowl MVP at close to even money.
Here are first touchdown bets, odds from Super Bowl betting sites, and stats for Super Bowl LX.
Super Bowl First Touchdown Odds
Super Bowl First Touchdown Best Bets & Picks
Check out three first touchdown bets below.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba First Touchdown (+600 DraftKings)
Seattle notched the first touchdown in 14 of 19 games this season (73.6%), and it has scored 27 first quarter points across two playoff games. On the other hand, New England recorded the first touchdown in 9 of 20 games this season (45%) and has scored seven first quarter points across three playoff games.
Given that Drake Maye is a sophomore quarterback, it’s not too surprising to see the Patriots’ offense get off to slow starts against stiff postseason competition. Maye will not find it any easier to succeed against a hyper-elite Seahawks defense that loves to disguise its coverages.
Additionally, the team that surrendered fewer total points in the regular season has scored the first touchdown in eight of the past 10 Super Bowls. This provides more evidence that the Seahawks are more likely to reach the end zone first.
As for the actual matchup, the Patriots boast a superb run defense. They rank fifth in rush expected points added (EPA) per play when Milton Williams is active and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season compared to 27 passing touchdowns. Their opponents’ first touchdown was also a run in 5 of 20 games (25%) and a pass in 13 of 20 games (65%).
Essentially, taking the Seahawks to score first via a passing touchdown is supported by the data.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has scored Seattle’s first touchdown in five games, which is tied with Zach Charbonnet for most on the team. Smith-Njigba also tied for the ninth-most red zone targets across the NFL in the regular season, and he is responsible for 35.1% of Seattle’s total receptions this postseason according to Pro Football Reference.
Smith-Njigba faces an elite cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. However, Smith-Njigba is one of the best separators in the league, and Seattle can seamlessly shift him around the field. Look for Smith-Njigba to be especially dangerous in the slot.
Seahawks D/ST First Touchdown (+2000 DraftKings)
Maye is prone to fumbles, and Seattle’s defense ranked sixth in pressure rate during the regular season despite rarely blitzing. This is a formula for Maye holding onto the football because he cannot find open receivers and subsequently getting sacked once the pass rush bypasses New England’s mediocre offensive line.
Plus, Rashid Shaheed is a dynamic return man who could feasibly take one to the end zone. He opened Seattle’s opening playoff game against San Francisco with a kick return touchdown.
Taking Seattle’s defense or special teams to score the first touchdown is worth a shot. It has happened in 3 of 19 games (15.7%) this season, and +2000 odds have an implied probability of 5%.
Hunter Henry First Patriots Touchdown (+600 DraftKings)
The Seahawks also feature a ferocious run defense. They rank first in rush EPA per play and have allowed nine rushing touchdowns compared to 23 passing touchdowns this season. Their opponents’ first touchdown was a run in 5 of 19 games (26.3%) and a pass in 8 of 19 games (42.1%).
Meanwhile, New England’s first touchdown was a run in 5 of 20 games (25%) and a pass in 13 of 20 games (65%).
Seattle’s defense gave up the fifth-most targets and receptions to opposing tight ends during the regular season. This bodes well for Hunter Henry, who led New England’s pass-catchers in touchdowns and was tied for fifth across the NFL in red zone targets. Plus, Henry has scored the Patriots’ first touchdown in a team-leading five games this season.
Expect Maye to consistently look for Henry – his safety blanket – with Seattle’s defense disguising coverages and likely generating plenty of pressure.
