PGA Tour Golf Odds, Picks, Predictions: Final 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card, OAD

PGA Tour golf continues with Bay Hill Resort & Lodge next on tap to host the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline among Arnold Palmer Invitational bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA Tour picks from the available golf odds. Below, you’ll find each player’s best odds across betting sites.

The stars return in Orlando this week as the PGA Tour is set to kick off its third Signature Event of the year. The acclaimed Bay Hill Resort & Lodge will host the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational with a much stronger field than what we saw last week.

Annually one of the most challenging tests on tour, Bay Hill is a picture-perfect layout to reward players who are sharpest in the most premium skill sets. This week, driving distance, par-5 scoring, proximity 200+, bogey avoidance, and SG: short game on firm and fast Bermuda greens are crucial. So, seeing such a long list of significant champions decorating the board of past winners is no surprise.

Let’s go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational without further ado.

Click on any of the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

How I Built My Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card

Bay Hill is in the top five on tour in predictive course history. As such, this is a week I either want exposure to in-form players with proven past success, or players who are available at a discount for their lack of course history, but in a position for better results to come.

Given the tighter field and juggernauts at the top, I’ve faded the longshots for my betting card and prioritized players with proven course history, elite driving distance, and proven success in comparable difficult scoring conditions.

With all of that in mind, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

• Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full tournament matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props – 2U in to pay out 3U+ each

Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Outrights (3.5 Units)

Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet:

Looking beyond the two juggernauts of Scheffler and McIlroy, no other player enters this week with a better combination of current form and Course History than Matt Fitzpatrick. He ranks No. 4 in the field in terms of both SG: TOT and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds, including a win and two top-15s over his last five starts.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is circled on the calendar every year for Fitzpatrick, who is about to make his 11th consecutive year playing this event. Over that span, he’s picked up six top-15s. Most encouragingly, FItzpatrick has gained strokes putting at in every single appearance he’s made at the Arnold Palmer Invitaional. While he’s always been a great putter long-term, it’s been a slow start to his season on the greens in 2026. If his prowess continues on these greens, the rest of Fitzpatrick’s game from tee-to-green is ready to win at Bay Hill.

Collin Morikawa

My Bet:

It took a couple years, but the Morikawa of old appears to be officially back again. Collin followed up his breakout win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with another solid T7 showing at The Genesis Invitational. The Californian has seen plenty of success outside of his home state as well though, winning in the state of Florida back in 2021 at the WGC- Workday Championship. Bay Hill is yet another demanding tee-to-green test that rewards consistently avoiding trouble, which has been Morikawa’s greatest strong suit.

Collin is a two-time top-10 finisher at this event over the last four years, including a solo second place finish at last year’s tournament. He’ll be motivated for redemption this time around, and will be playing much more freely having already taken down one Signature Event this season.

Ludvig Aberg

My Bet:

My official pick to win is my featured spotlight player, Ludvig Aberg. When healthy, Aberg’s game is tailor made to attack long and difficult courses like Bay Hill that reward elite Total Driving and long iron play. That is the exact formula he followed to pick up his most recent victory at the Genesis Invitational last season.

If we’re willing to chalk up the slow start to 2026 to nothing more than an illness from something in California water, then we’re getting a very appealing number on Aberg with a fresh start on the Florida Swing. He’s finished top-25 in each of his first three appearances at this event, which includes his debut here as an amateur in 2023. Aberg will look to continue a stretch of nine top-25 finishes over his last 12 starts.

Chris Gotterup

My Bet:

Would I be surprised if Chris Gotterup won three of the first seven events of the year? Sure! But at these odds, it’s not as if we’re buying high in hopes of that achievement. Bombers hold an advantage at Bay Hill, as winners like Kurt Kitayama, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau have shown in recent years. Gotterup isn’t a reckless driver either, picking up his wins this year at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open, where control off the tee is paramount.

Gotterup is set to make his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut this, but this will also be his first look at the Florida Swing since becoming a Florida resident in the off-season. That paid immediate dividends for him at the Sony Open, and if that off-season prep has made him into a Bermuda specialist, he’ll have a great opportunity ahead of him this week.

Sepp Straka

My Bet:

A top-5 finisher at this event last year, Straka has exactly the type of game I’m looking for in an Arnold Palmer Invitational contender. Straka is a Georgia native who’s played some of his best golf on Bermuda setups. In addition to picking up a win in the state of Florida at the 2022 Honda Classic, he also lost in a playoff at the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Whenever there is a penalty for wayward misses, Straka tends to separate, as he is one of the most consistent ball strikers on tour. A T2 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am just two starts ago also supports his ability to perform in windy conditions. Straka has proven he can hang around at Bay Hill, and looks poised to add to his tally of four PGA TOUR wins within the last four years.

Michael Thorbjornsen

My Bet:

I didn’t actively seek out longshots for my outright card this week, but these odds on Thorbjornsen were simply too long to pass up. Thorbjornsen showed his game is strong enough to hang with the best players on the PGA TOUR at the WM Phoenix Open last month, nearly taking the tournament before finding the water on the 71st hole.

Thorbjornsen is top-5 in Driving Distance in this field, which will offer him a distinct advantage on this long layout. He was a top-20 finisher at the Famers Insurance Open the last time he saw a long, driver-heavy venue at Torrey Pines. He’ll have JJ Jakovac on the bag to help make up for the experience he lacks this week, with JJ nearly winning this event alongside Collin Morikawa last year.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: First-Round Leader (0.5 Units)

Chris Gotterup

My Bet: +4000

Best Available Odds:

The No. 1 player on the PGA TOUR this season in terms of Round 1 Scoring average is none other than Chris Gotterup. That makes sense considering the volume of birdie-or-better opportunities his driver affords him, so he’ll be a threat to post a low number on Thursday if his Bermuda putting contines to improve. 

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +5200

Best Available Odds:

While less likely to overpower Bay Hill, Straka is in great ball striking form and is capable of catching a streaky putter on Bermuda greens. He’ll have good vibes returning to Orlando, finishing T5 in his latest appearance here. 

Michael Thorbjornsen

My Bet: +5500

Best Available Odds:

Distance leads to birdies at Bay Hill, and Thorbjornsen has plenty of distance in the tank to reach these longer par-5s. His form is solid at the moment as well, with two top-2os over his last four starts.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +5700

Best Available Odds:

Last year’s king of the first round, Mitchell backdoored his way into this event with a top-10 finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Mitchell is an elite ball striker who saves his best golf for the Florida Swing, having picked up his last win at the 2019 Honda Classic.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets (3.0 Units)

Straight Forecast: Scheffler/McIlroy, McIlroy/Scheffler

My Bet: +5000 each

This is admittedly more of an entertainment bet than a shrewd hedge to my outright card. Us golf fans are long overdue for a World No. 1 vs. World No. 2 showdown, and there is no time or place where that is more likely to happen than right here, right now at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scheffler and McIlroy rnaks No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in Course History here, with three victories between them since 2018. If my outrights don’t pan out, I’m hopeful we’ll get to see a clash of the game’s two best as a consolation. 

Full Tournament Matchup: Chris Gotterup over Justin Thomas

My Bet: -120

I had a chance to see Justin Thomas in person for his TGL debut last week, his first start since returning from back surgery in November. For all intents and purposes, he is treating this first start back as a means to shake off rust and see what he’s got. It would shock me, and frankly Thomas himself, if he finds himself in contention this week. I’ll gladly side with the two-time 2026 winner here, on a setup I believe he has legitimate upside to win. 

Top-20 Finish: Sepp Straka

My Bet: +200

Best Available Odds:

Straka brings all the high floor qualities I’m looking for at Bay Hill. He’s a strong long-term Bermuda putter with proven history at this event (T5 in 2025), and two top-20s over his last three starts.

One And Done

My Pick: Ludvig Aberg 

Fortunately there is plenty of time left in the OAD season, because it has not been the greatest start thus far. I normally save Rory for this spot at Bay Hill, but opted to use him at Pebble Beach this year. I’m also happy to save Scheffler for after he’s proven to be in mid-season form, which leaves a wide openn board to choose from.

Aberg is a contrarian choice in OAD this week, but I’m a firm believer in his fit for this course, and that the best is yet to come from him this season.

If not Aberg, I would also consider playing Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, or Tommy Fleetwood in OAD.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: The Card

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Arnold Palmer Invitational bets, and see you on Sunday for THE PLAYERS Championship preview.