UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Betting Trends, Odds & Data for Saturday, May 16, 2026

By Thom Cunningham | May 15, 2026, 12:51pm

UFC heads back to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on Saturday, May 16 and is set to take place at the Meta APEX. Let’s go through the entire fight card odds, betting data and trends for this weekend’s event.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Betting Trends

Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari Fight Trends

Shauna Bannon has won 7 of 9 fights but is the underdog despite this, given a 30.3% chance to beat Nicolle Caliari.

Nicolle Caliari has seen a finished result in 9 of 10 fights but faces Shauna Bannon, given a 29.4% chance to see a finished result despite this.

Nicolle Caliari has failed to enter Round 3 in 4 of 6 fights but faces Shauna Bannon, given a 31.3% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds despite this.

Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule Fight Trends

Luis Gurule has lost 3 straight UFC fights but is the favorite despite this, given a 60.8% chance to beat Daniel Barez.

Daniel Barez has seen a finished result in 6 of 7 fights but faces Luis Gurule, given a 48.8% chance to see a finished result despite this.

Luis Gurule has entered Round 3 in 8 of 9 fights and faces Daniel Barez, given a 63.6% chance to go Over 2.5 rounds.

Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana Fight Trends

Polyana Viana has lost 4 straight UFC fights when facing an orthodox opponent and is the underdog against Alice Ardelean, given a 37.7% chance to win.

Polyana Viana has seen a finished result in 7 straight UFC prelim card fights but faces Alice Ardelean, given a 40% chance to see a finished result despite this.

Polyana Viana has failed to enter Round 3 in 7 of 8 fights but faces Alice Ardelean, given a 37% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds despite this.

Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski Fight Trends

Cody Brundage has lost 3 straight UFC fights and is the underdog, given a 38.5% chance to beat Andre Petroski.

Andre Petroski has seen 4 straight UFC fights go the distance when facing an American opponent. He faces Cody Brundage given a 45.5% chance to go the distance despite this.

Andre Petroski has entered Round 3 in 4 of 5 fights and faces Cody Brundage, given a 66.7% chance to go Over 1.5 rounds.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti Fight Trends

Jacqueline Cavalcanti has won 8 straight fights and is the favorite, given a 61.5% chance to beat Ketlen Vieira.

Ketlen Vieira has seen 9 straight UFC fights go the distance and faces Jacqueline Cavalcanti, given an 80% chance to go the distance.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti has entered Round 3 in 6 straight fights and faces Ketlen Vieira, given an 85.3% chance to go Over 2.5 rounds.

Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev Fight Trends

Tommy Gantt has won 11 straight fights and is the favorite, given a 65.5% chance to beat Artur Minev.

Tommy Gantt has seen a finished result in 5 straight fights and faces Artur Minev, given a 66.7% chance to see a finished result.

Tommy Gantt has failed to enter Round 3 in 10 of 12 fights and faces Artur Minev, given a 60.8% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds.

Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan Fight Trends

Ivan Erslan has lost 3 straight UFC fights but is the favorite despite this, given a 61.5% chance to beat Tuco Tokkos.

Tuco Tokkos has seen a finished result in 4 of 5 fights and faces Ivan Erslan, given a 71% chance to see a finished result.

Tuco Tokkos has failed to enter Round 3 in 7 of 9 fights and faces Ivan Erslan, given a 63.6% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds.

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams Fight Trends

Khaos Williams has won 4 of 5 UFC fights when facing an older opponent inside Meta APEX. Williams is the favorite with a 54.1% chance to beat Nikolay Veretennikov.

Khaos Williams has seen a finished result in 3 straight UFC fights inside Meta APEX and faces Nikolay Veretennikova, given a 59.2% chance to see a finished result.

Khaos Williams has entered Round 3 in 6 of 8 fights and faces Nikolay Veretennikov, given a 71% chance to go Over 1.5 rounds.

Timothy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj Fight Trends

Timothy Cuamba has won 7 of 9 fights but is the underdog despite this, given a 46.5% chance to beat Benardo Sopaj.

Benardo Sopaj has seen a finished result in 4 of 5 fights but faces Timothy Cuamba, given a 40% chance to see a finished result despite this.

Timothy Cuamba has entered Round 3 in 4 of 6 fights and faces Benardo Sopaj, given a 68.8% chance to go Over 2.5 rounds.

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards Fight Trends

Christian Edwards has won 5 of 7 fights when coming off a win but is the underdog despite this, given a 27.8% chance to beat Modestas Bukauskas.

Christian Edwards has seen a finished result in 4 of 5 fights and faces Modestas Bukauskas, given a 61.5% chance to see a finished result.

Modestas Bukauskas has failed to enter Round 3 in 3 straight fights after entering Round 3 the fight prior. He faces Christian Edwards with a 53.5% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds.

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz Fight Trends

Juan Diaz has won 13 of 14 fights but is the underdog despite this, given a 32.3% chance to beat Malcolm Wellmaker.

Malcolm Wellmaker has seen a finished result in 5 of 7 fights and faces Juan Diaz, given a 66.7% chance to see a finished result.

Malcolm Wellmaker has seen 3 of 4 fights end in Round 1 and faces Juan Diaz, given a 55.6% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds.

Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos Fight Trends

Doo Ho Choi has seen the underdog win 5 of 6 UFC fights. He is the underdog with a 42.6% chance to beat Daniel Santos.

Doo Ho Choi has seen a finished result in 4 straight UFC fights when facing an orthodox opponent in the United States. He faces Daniel Santos given a 64.9% chance to see a finished result.

Doo Ho Choi has failed to enter Round 3 in 10 of 13 fights and faces Daniel Santos, given a 54.5% chance to go Under 2.5 rounds.

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Fight Trends

Melquizael Costa has won 6 straight UFC fights but is the underdog despite this, given a 48.8% chance to beat Arnold Allen.

Arnold Allen has seen 4 straight UFC fights go the distance and faces Melquizael Costa, given a 56.5% chance to go the distance.

Arnold Allen has entered the final round in 4 straight fights and faces Melquizael Costa, given a 59.2% chance to go Over 4.5 rounds.

Photo Credit: AP/Steve Marcus

Thom Cunningham

Thom Cunningham is the Lineups.com News Editor and has been involved with sports media for almost two decades at Spectrum, VegasInsider.com, Oddschecker, VSiN and much more as a content producer - focused on the betting and gaming space over the last decade tracking insights, data analytics and covering various markets from the NFL to the Oscars.