2025 U.S. Open Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets & Picks, Including Viktor Hovland
With great anticipation since 2016, Oakmont Country Club returns to host the U.S. Open for what may prove to be the most punishing four days of golf we’ve seen over the last decade. I say this every year, but U.S. Open week is the week I look forward to the most on the golf calendar. It is synonymous with great Father’s Day weekend memories, and a great run of recent bets on U.S. Open odds has kept those sweet memories going. When it comes to the U.S. Open, we know to expect carnage, the threat of double-bogey or worse for any given hole, and any shortcomings in a player’s game to be exploited.
In the case of Oakmont CC, we’ll see an exaggerated challenge to what’s become the norm in modern major venues, such as Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines, Oak Hill, and the Winged Foots of the world. Beyond just being a beast to navigate, Oakmont is a pristine, meticulously manicured property that sets the stage perfectly for a major championship.
Oakmont is defined by its massive, fast, and sloping Poa greens, diabolically thick rough, and penal fairway bunkers neighboring on both sides. There is nowhere to hide or catch a breather at Oakmont, and any player who can manage to stay below par over four days will prove to be a deserving champion.
Without further ado, let’s run through U.S. Open odds, key facts, and info about Oakmont Country Club ahead of the 2025 U.S. Open.
- Related: Golf Oddsmaker On Scottie Scheffler’s Historic U.S. Open Odds
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The Field At A Glance
The U.S. Open presents the strongest field in the world of golf. Compared to The Masters, the U.S. Open offers a full field of 156 players with invites for past champions cut off at 10 years. Compared to the PGA Championship, any spots that would have been reserved for PGA Tour professionals are instead up for grabs via regional qualifying.
We’ll still have potential for some Cinderella storylines for the select amateurs and club pros who successfully advanced through qualifying. Notably, 17-year-old high schooler Mason Howell will be a fun name to watch after dominating his regional qualifier and advancing ahead of established names like Greyson Sigg, Zach Johnson, and Dean Burmester. By and large, this field is as strong as it gets.
There are no surprise omissions at the 2025 U.S. Open. All of the best in the world will converge at Oakmont CC this week. Scottie Scheffler stands in a class of his own as the prohibitive favorite this week, looking to win successive majors in 2025 and notch his first career U.S. Open title. He’s now distanced himself from Rory McIlroy on the odds board.
The two were co-favorites at the 2025 PGA Championship (+500). However, after a few disappointing starts from McIlroy since Scheffler’s odds have cut in half, while McIlroy’s have doubled. Two-time U.S. Open winner and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau carries great momentum into this week as well.
Grand Slams are a buzzing topic in 2025, as McIlroy’s career accomplishment at the Masters has left us wondering who’s next. Phil Mickelson has the opportunity to complete his career slam this week and has made comments suggesting this may be his final U.S. Open attempt. Scottie Scheffler would be positioned to bid for the career grand slam at Royal Portrush next month with a win this week. Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa could follow Rory’s lead at the 2026 Masters with their own career grand slam bid with a win at Oakmont.
Dustin Johnson was the last man to conquer Oakmont CC in 2016, dominating with a four-stroke win at -5 for the tournament. It was one of the most impressive displays of golf we’ve seen in the modern major era, as Johnson remains the only player to have led a major championship in Driving Distance, Greens In Regulation, and Scrambling. Nine years and a massive LIV payday later, Johnson is not quite the same powerhouse he used to be, but he is back in the field nonetheless.
The list of former U.S. Open champions teeing it up this week, in addition to DeChambeau and Johnson, also includes: Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, and Rory McIlroy.
Introduction To Oakmont Country Club
Set to host the U.S. Open for a record-setting 10th time this week, Oakmont Country Club represents, not coincidentally, an amalgamation of the characteristics we associate with a U.S. Open venue. Described by many as a true Darwinian test, Oakmont is built to challenge every facet of a golfer’s game, one stroke at a time. It will require distance, precision, patience, strategy, touch, and imagination to conquer this beast, with deficiencies and any one of those areas sure to be exposed.
As the story goes, Henry Fownes built this golf course in 1903, drawing inspiration from his world travels. After being misdiagnosed with a fatal disease, Fohmes made a bucket list trip to Europe, where he fell in love with the game of golf and played some of the world’s greatest links courses.
When he returned from his travels with a new lease on life, he set out to build the hardest all-around test of golf in the world in his hometown of Pittsburgh. For all intents and purposes, he succeeded in doing just that with Oakmont CC.
History follows you at each turn on the grounds of Oakmont, as virtually every legend of the game has etched their own mark on this course. Its list of past champions is a true “who’s who” of their eras: Tommy Armour, Sam Parks Jr, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Larry Nelson, Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera, and Dustin Johnson. Johnny Miller’s final round 63 remains the lowest round in U.S. Open history, a remarkable accomplishment at what is known to be the most difficult of all U.S. Open venues.
It’s hard to imagine anyone but a future Golf Hall of Famer coming out on top in 2025’s installment of the U.S. Open at Oakmont.
Breaking Down Oakmont Country Club
A 7,372-yard par-70, Oakmont Country Club is not the gargantuan beast of some of its U.S. Open predecessors like Torrey Pines or Winged Foot. With pinched fairways, diabolically thick rough, and treacherous bunkers lining both sides of each fairway, there is nowhere to hide on this golf course. Oakmont’s combination of tight fairways, tremendously thick rough, oversized greens, and northeastern U.S. agronomy naturally lends itself to Winged Foot comparisons, which Bryson Dechambeau famously conquered with reckless abandon off the tee.
One demonstrable difference between Winged Foot and Oakmont, however, is the lateral penalty for finding these fairway bunkers with misfires off the tee. This will give a glimmer of hope for players who lack elite distance to hang around this week, as there will be a reward for playing this course from the fairway. Even for a par-70, 7,372 yards is about average course length by U.S. Open standards.
Taking a deeper look at the hole-by-hole breakdown, Oakmont’s length is exaggerated even further by three comically long holes: the 611-yard par-5 4th, the 289-yard par-3 8th, and the 632-yard par-5 12th. Some birdies will still be yielded on the par-5s this week, but they will need to be earned with three great shots, especially if hitting into a hurting wind. The 289-yard par-3 has already been a controversial conversation topic this week, with players like Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas speaking out against the need for par-3s this long.
It’s hard to confidently say any of these 18 holes cede scoring “opportunities,” but players’ best bets for birdies are likely to come on the two sub-350-yard par-4s on the course: No. 2 and No. 17. The 2nd hole (346 yards), will only draw drivers from the longest hitters in the field. The 17th hole (312 yards), however, is a great risk-reward hole that will bait a majority of the field into going for the green off the tee. After all, it’s only 20 yards longer than the par-3 8th.
Distinguishing Features
It sounds cliche, but there really is nothing else quite like Oakmont to compare it to. Its oversized greens are second only to Kapalua on tour in terms of square footage, and feature a Bermuda-Poa blend these players will not find anywhere else in the world. The greens themselves were expanded by Gil Hanse as part of his 2024 restoration project.
These changes are reminiscent of his work on Southern Hills, which produced brand new hole locations and heightened the importance of Approach Putting and three-putt avoidance. Tucking pins on massive greens lends itself to more conservative bailouts on approach shots, so players will need to control their speed well on these significantly fast and sloped greens.
The greens truly are the identity of Oakmont, and understanding them may prove to be the greatest challenge facing players this week. Given the nuance and speed, I’m looking to Winged Foot, Oak Hill, Augusta National, and Muirfield Village as the top comps for putting specifically.
In addition to the large and fast greens, it’s the severely sloped fairways that give Oakmont a unique identity as well. This is something we commonly analyze at Augusta National this week, as you will rarely find an even lie in Oakmont’s fairways and will need to be comfortable hitting flighted shots above and below your feet. It is no easy task holding these fairways, especially when playing as firm and fast as we expect them to in these dry conditions, so it’s especially daunting that approaches from the fairway are no easy task either.
This is not a Trackman golf course, so shot-making, imagination, creativity, and experience playing from uneven lies will be crucial on approaches this week.
Gil Hanse’s restoration removed nearly 100 bunkers from the property, and yet it remains the course with the most bunkers on the PGA Tour. As the story goes, the Fownes family steadfastly added hazards to the course over the years to ensure there was no safe place to bail out to. The integrity of that philosophy remains after the restoration, as you cannot bail out left or right on any given tee shot. You simply have to aim for the fairways and hope you have full control of your driver this week.
All in all, Oakmont will offer an advantage to the longest drivers in the field, who can position themselves to scramble for birdies on the two long par-5s and two short par-4s. For the remaining 14 holes on the golf course, a combination of Driving Accuracy, iron control, and lag putting will be necessary to tread water and avoid blow-up holes.
In my summation, distance is a perk that can lead to an untapped ceiling of scoring opportunities at Oakmont, however, it is of secondary importance to precision.
Oakmont Country Club Specs
- Yards: 7,372
- Par: 70 (4x 3s / 12x 4s / 2x 5s)
- Greens: Poa
- Rough: 5” Kentucky Bluegrass (Very Thick)
- Avg. Fairway Width: 28 Yards (Narrow)
- Avg Green Size: 8,500 sq. ft. (Very Large)
- Architect: Henry Fownes (2024 Restoration by Gil Hanse)
- Comp Courses: Winged Foot, Oak Hill, Bethpage Black, Augusta National, Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Bay Hill, Quail Hollow, Los Angeles Country Club, Pinehurst No. 2, Riviera CC, Valhalla GC
Event History & Course Comps
Course History can only go so far on rotating major venues like Oakmont, considering 9 years and an extensive Gil Hanse restoration project stand between now and when Dustin Johnson last emerged victorious in 2016. Severely wet conditions also factored into a bit of a bizarre leaderboard in 2016, as approach specialists like Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, and Kevin Na were able to hang with the bombers thanks to uncharacteristically soft and receptive greens.
That shouldn’t be the case again in 2025, however, as weather conditions currently call for a perfectly clear and dry forecast. With that said, I’ll lean more toward U.S. Open Event history and comp course history at similar demanding venues to project players who suit Oakmont the best this week.
U.S. Open Betting History
The USGA embodies the same core characteristics in each of its chosen venues. Although Oakmont appears to be bomb-and-gouge-proof, longer hitters and elite ball strikers who can grind in difficult scoring conditions should continue to rise to the top of the leaderboard. With its oversized greens and tight false fronts, this is also a week where approach putting and three-putt avoidance will be distinctly important.
Fourteen players avoided missing the cut over the last five U.S. Open contests (min. three starts): Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Min Woo Lee, Tom Kim, Brooks Koepka, Denny McCarthy, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, and Patrick Reed.
Thirteen players finished in the top 15 multiple times at the U.S. Open in the last five years: DeChambeau, McIlroy, Cantlay, Matsuyama, Scheffler, Schauffele, English, Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Tony Finau, and Guido Migliozzi.
Over the last five years, the top 10 players in U.S. Open Event History are: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Harris English, and Dustin Johnson. This list further justifies a trend of elite ball striking, particularly with long irons, among annual contenders at the U.S. Open. With Oakmont being a bit shorter than your typical U.S. Open venue, we may see it buck the trend of elite long-iron players rising to the top, as Total Driving and short-iron approach play will be more crucial here.
Course Comps
I usually spend the majority of my research time identifying the best course comps to project recent results within the past year onto the field for the upcoming week. In Majors, I tend to de-prioritize the importance of Comp Course History, as the atmosphere of a standard event is not comparable to that of a Major. However, there’s still value in referencing results on regular PGA Tour courses that ask for a similar style of play.
In this case, the strengths of Bogey Avoidance in difficult conditions and long rough, Total Driving, three-putt avoidance, and all-around tee-to-green still translate.
If I had to compare Oakmont to one course, I would describe it as a shorter, equally difficult version of Winged Foot. Bryson DeChambeau forged his own path at the 2020 U.S. Open, essentially saying, “If no one can hold these fairways anyway, I’ll just hit it as far down as I can and wedge it towards the green”. Thus, the modern-day bomb-and-gouge philosophy was born.
If you remove Bryson from that leaderboard, however, the rest of the contenders (Louis Oosthuizen, Harris English, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson) were elite putters and accurate total drivers. What Oakmont lacks in length, it makes up for with additional hazards lining the fairway, so I expect this to be a week where accurate total drivers and elite putters prevail over pure bombers.
Second to Winged Foot, I would next put Oak Hill in this top category of comp courses. Both venues are defined by their nuanced greens, extremely thick rough, and need for straight driving off the tee. Of note, the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill was played in severely wet conditions, which will not be the case at the 2025 U.S. Open.
Among the other recent Major venues, Augusta National will serve as a solid reference point, if only as a measure of approach play from uneven lies and approach putting on massive, fast, and nuanced greens. In terms of Driving, Augusta and Oakmont are opposites, as there is far more of a premium on driving distance and far less of a consequence for wayward tee shots at Augusta compared to Oakmont. Muirfield Village also embodies similar characteristics from an agronomy standpoint.
On a more tertiary basis, Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Quail Hollow, and Bethpage Black are more recent examples of firm and fast courses with narrow fairways and a steep penalty for misses off the tee.
Wrap that all together, and the top 10 players in comp course history are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, and Cam Smith.
Key Stats To Consider For U.S. Open Odds
- Total Driving (Driving Distance + Driving Accuracy)
- SG: T2G (Recent Form)
- SG: APP / Prox: 100-150
- SG: ARG (Long Rough)
- SG: Putting (L36, Fast Greens) / Approach Putting
- SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- Comp Course History
- SG: TOT in Majors (L5 Years)
Having hosted just two U.S. Opens since 2007, we don’t have as much data to pull from to directly ascertain how players need to profile to find success at Oakmont CC. But, we’ll do the best we can with the eight rounds of sample size we do have over that period.
You won’t have to search hard to find hole-by-hole breakdowns this week. The overarching takeaway from the visuals of this course is that the new and restored Oakmont will effectively be “Bomb and Gouge” proof, with ample fairway bunkers and brutal rough leading to unpredictable runouts, creating more of a distinct advantage for accuracy. It is a moderately long course, standing just under 7,400 yards as a par-70, but it is not diabolically long like other recent U.S. Open venues.
In theory, the player who separates himself from the pack this week should have elite distance and perform above the field average in driving accuracy.
Model Focus: U.S. Open Odds
I’m putting a significant emphasis on SG: OTT in my models, as I will start to cross off players from contending if they are not in complete control of their driver leading into this week. Nine players rank above-average in Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, and SG: OTT (Difficult Driving Conditions): Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth, Robert MacIntyre, Brooks Koepka, Maverick McNealy, Dustin Johnson, and Erik van Rooyen.
Second to Total Driving, I believe it’s the players who are most skilled with the speed on the greens who can separate on this golf course. With greens this fast and tightly mown, it will be best for players to bail out away from pins when out of position, and rather than scrambling for par, they’ll need to be tactful on the greens with their approach putting to avoid three-putts.
The top-10 players in Approach Putting on fast greens are Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, Ben Griffin, Tommy Fleetwood, Stephan Jaeger, Victor Perez, Emiliano Grillo, Sam Burns, and J.T. Poston.
From an approach standpoint, Oakmont CC is unique from a traditional U.S. Open venue. We’ve seen the USGA push the limits of course yardage over the years, which has effectively boiled the competition down to who can be most effective with their long irons. That will not be the case at Oakmont. Approach play, in my opinion, will be secondary to Total Driving and approach putting, as players will rarely be firing at pins.
However, there are several holes where a good tee shot will leave players a short wedge in, and these may be the few opportunities players have to go for birdies. With that said, I’ll focus specifically on Prox: 100-150 when handicapping approach play this week. The top 10 from this distance are: Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Cameron Smith, Brian Harman, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, and Lucas Glover.
As this is a major championship, we are ideally looking for a well-rounded player in each of these areas. Just nine players rank above average in Total Driving, Driving Accuracy, prox: 100-150, and Approach Putting: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Emiliano Grillo, Victor Perez, and Erik van Rooyen.
Scoring In Difficult Conditions
Anytime the USGA is involved, you know the intent is to make scoring conditions as difficult as possible. Where else would you find two 610+ yard Par-4s and a 290-yard par-3? Given the unique topography and likelihood to move tees and pins daily, it’s difficult to use performance on standard courses to project success here.
Instead, scoring in difficult conditions will more broadly capture those who are best equipped to handle everything Oakmont CC throws their way. The top 10 in SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions) are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, and Corey Conners.
The ideal player for Oakmont CC should rank above-average in Total Driving, Approach Putting, SG: TOT (L36), SG: TOT (Majors L5 Years), and SG: APP. Just 9 players fit that criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Maverick McNealy, and Robert MacIntyre.
Correlation
While we don’t have much to go on for Oakmont CC, there’s still merit in using what’s been taken to find success at past U.S. Opens to project an ideal profile for this week, given the constant throughline of the USGA governing.
Looking over the stats, I prioritized Par-5 Scoring and SG: OTT at the U.S. Open far less compared to the tour average. That makes sense, considering the USGA historically converts usual Par-5s into long par-4s, commonly playing to Par-70.
From an OTT standpoint, we’ve seen players start to freely swing the driver over the last few contests. They accept that fairways will be difficult to hold and instead opt to play their second shots closer to the hole. Conditions will be much different at Oakmont CC, though elite total driving will still give players a leg up if able to drive to hold these tight fairways at distance.
Par-4 Scoring
Par-4: 400-450 is another stat that plays far less of an important role at the U.S. Open than average. The USGA typically extends tee boxes back to play closer to 500 yards and rewards a player with an all-around complement of both distance and accuracy. Just two Par-4s at Pinehurst No. 2 fall between 400-450 yards.
The stats that take the biggest leap forward in terms of importance at a U.S. Open are Par-4: 500+, SG: ARG, Driving Distance, and Doubles Avoided. Each of these categories will continue to be crucial at Oakmont, although fairways may level the playing field for Driving Distance this week. Notably, each of these stats ranks inside the top 15 of importance at the U.S. Open while outside the top 25 on average.
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at the U.S. Open
Nine players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories I’m looking for this week: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, and Robert MacIntyre.
Player Spotlight For U.S. Open Odds & Bets: Viktor Hovland ()
The argument can easily be made that the 11-time PGA Tour and DP World Tour winner, 2023 Tour Champion, and two-time Ryder Cup standout now stands as the best player in the world who is yet to win a major. At the age of 27, it’s unfair to say he’s overdue, but with four top-10 finishes in majors since 2022, it’s fair to say he’s ready for the moment.
A testament to the baselines Hovland has set for himself, a 2025 season that includes a win and five top-25s over 10 starts still feels like a “down” year. Even still, his win at the Valspar Championship, a demanding ball-striking venue, displays his upside as a closer, which is something many other top names favored ahead of him, like Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay cannot say themselves in 2025.
I’m fascinated by Hovland’s ability to turn his greatest weakness of SG: ARG into a strength at majors. He has gained strokes around the green in 12 of his first 19 major starts. A key reason behind that, I believe, is due to the severely grown-out rough we commonly see around the greens at majors. This is designed to penalize wayward approaches, which benefits a player like Hovland twofold.
It rewards his strength of approach and creates more of a guessing game when chipping out of thick rough, effectively removing the skill or touch that would otherwise be needed.
With Oakmont’s oversized greens and tightly mown false fronts, there’s an opportunity to bail out and two-putt for pars all around the course, which effectively offsets Hovland’s greatest weakness. From a ball-striking standpoint, Hovland ranks No. 1 in the field in SG: Ball Striking on Difficult Courses. He also ranks top-7 in SG: TOT in Majors over the last 5 years and top-5 in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. A third-place finisher in similar conditions at Oak Hill in 2023, this may be Hovland’s best chance yet to pick up his first career major victory.
U.S. Open: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 U.S. Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Tier 1
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
Tier 2
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Joaquin Niemann
- Tyrrell Hatton
Tier 3
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Shane Lowry
- Corey Conners
- Sepp Straka
Tier 4
- Si Woo Kim
- Tony Finau
- Keegan Bradley
- Harris English
- Ben Griffin
- Robert MacIntyre
Tier 5
- Erik van Rooyen
- Cameron Young
- Patrick Reed
- Sam Burns
- Gary Woodland
U.S. Open Odds: Model Results & Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: TOT (Majors L5Y), SG: TOT (L36), Total Driving, Approach Putting, and SG: P (Fast Greens), followed by a balanced mix of Prox: 100-150, SG: APP, SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Bogey Avoidance, Comp Course History, SG: ARG (Long Rough), and SG: Ball Striking (High OTT Difficulty).
U.S. Open Odds: Model Favorites
Unsurprisingly, it’s Scottie Scheffler who comes out on top of the model. Ranking No. 1 in SG: T2G, SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: TOT (Difficult Scoring Conditions), it’s tough to argue against Scheffler’s chances to pick up his second Major of 2025 this week. The odds agree, and he’ll make me think twice before betting out of the “Without Scheffler” market.
After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, and Collin Morikawa.
I haven’t placed any futures just yet, but will be eying Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland as my top targets when 2025 U.S. Open odds adjust Monday.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the 2025 U.S. Open odds board. Remember to sign up for “King of the Course,” which gives bettors a chance to win a share of $1 million in bonus bets!
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