2026 US Open Sleepers: Top Longshots, Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

The 2026 US Open is upon us as we turn to the final tennis major event of the calendar season, for many the last chance to make a big push for points and the Finals race at the end of the year. Below, we will highlight some of the top sleepers to watch out for with the men’s and women’s singles draw.

2026 US Open Men’s Sleepers & Longshots

Arthur Fils (+1200)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 32-10 (11th)
• ATS: 25-13-2 (46th)
• Total: 11-28-1 (213th)

Arthur Fils should actually be considered a contender, but his odds indicate a sleeper status despite coming off an impressive title run in Cincinnati. His Cincinnati title has earned him a six-match winning streak along with wins in nine of 11 main draw matches since the rebirth of hard court season. One betting stat to mind when wagering on Fils matches is whether or not he is the underdog, owning a 0-8-1 O/U record as a underdog, so in that role eye the game total when combing markets. In terms of winning the event, he is a big yes in our eyes.

Felix Auger Aliassime (+2800)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 32-15 (4th)
• ATS: 26-15-4 (50th)
• Total: 16-28-1 (197th)

Felix the Cat is currently 13-5 over his last 18 matches, but his withdrawal in Montreal along with just two wins in Cincinnati leaves us at the door with Auger-Aliassime. Although the talent is clearly there, lady luck never is, suffering heartbreaking losses – such as Wimbledon, or dealing with nagging injuries – such as Montreal. For the conviction FAA wins the US Open, he will need to be fully fit while also getting a kind draw. While we are uncertain for either, he is a sleeper worth setting aside for now but definitely worth a look pending his draw.

Frances Tiafoe (+4000)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 37-16 (12th)
• ATS: 30-20-2 (59th)
• Total: 24-26-2 (142nd)

FAA’s kryptonite lately has been Frances Tiafoe, who has won five of six matches with the loss coming in the Cincinnati final against Fils. Quite frankly, Tiafoe is playing the best tennis he has played in about a year and a half, and is a player who thrives under the spotlight that New York provides. The loss to Terence Atmane in Washington seemed to wake Tiafoe up, but whether or not he can sustain that level of play for two weeks remains a mystery. He has also failed to get past the quarterfinals in any 1000 level hard court event or higher until Cincinnati, so the consistency is still unproven but signs are pointing in the right direction for him. Wager Tiafoe with caution.

Brandon Nakashima (+5000)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 31-17 (17th)
• ATS: 30-16-2 (47th)
• Total: 22-24-2 (144th)

Perhaps the best sleeper for either tour lies in Brandon Nakashima, running a hard court clinic with wins in 12 of 15 matches since Washington. His only three losses have come to Americans (Tiafoe, Shelton, Fritz), so he’ll be looking to avoid those names along with Tommy Paul in the draw. Regardless how the draw unfolds, Nakashima is playing with more confidence than anyone on the ATP or WTA Tours and should be a top consideration when looking for dark horses in New York.

Flavio Cobolli (+3500)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 31-18 (6th)
• ATS: 23-24-2 (146th)
• Total: 20-28-1 (175th)

What makes Flavio Cobolli a true sleeper in New York is the court surface, being a hard court where he prefers the clay. However, his precursor results in Cincinnati actually give us hope that the young Italian could surprise people with a deep run. He already showcased his ability to perform well in a major when he reached the final at Roland Garros, but as already established the clay court surface is his strongest. While he was able to win four of five matches in Cincinnati before losing to eventual champion Fils, he lost his first match in Canada while also failing to reach the Round of 16 in Miami and Indian Wells. He did, however, win the title in Acapulco – so the idea he can rattle of a run in New York is sound to say the least.

2026 US Open Women’s Sleepers & Longshots

Marta Kostyuk (+1800)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 32-8 (11th)
• ATS: 24-13-3 (52nd)
• Total: 17-23 (200th)

Despite being included with the sleepers and longshots, Marta Kostyuk has been playing at an elite level all season long. She’s lost just four times over her last 31 main draw matches, with her last two hard court losses coming against Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. She also lost in Wimbledon to eventual champion Linda Noskova before losing to Mirra Andreeva in Paris. When added together, Kostyuk’s last four losses have all come to the eventual champion, so have no fear in taking a ticket on what one could argue the best kept secret in tennis this season (statistically speaking).

Amanda Anisimova (+1600)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 20-11 (10th)
• ATS: 15-12-2 (94th)
• Total: 12-17 (206th)

It seems like the wheels are finally circling for Amanda Anisimova, a season plagued by injuries but might see light at the end of the tunnel. In Cincinnati, we were uncertain how far she could go given the turbulence she’s faced in 2026. However, the expectation her game was coming could be seen a mile away, but it exploded in Cincinnati with a stellar tournament which included wins over Noskova and Alexandra Eala before bowing out to Jessica Pegula. Don’t be surprised if Anisimova goes deep in New York, as it seems her form is peaking at the right time.

Alexandra Eala (+2800)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 31-19 (18th)
• ATS: 25-21-1 (98th)
• Total: 20-26-1 (190th)

Speaking of Eala, she has taken the tennis world by storm with her dominating play and eccentric fan base. Make no doubt about it, her fans do play a huge role in her matches, which will actually be crucial for the energy and intimacy of New York’s lights and pressure. The most notable, and obvious, highlight for Eala was winning Washington over Pegula – certifying herself as a legit name to take the crown in Queens. While she is an impressive 19-3 in matches as the favorite, she is just 12-16 as the underdog. That will need to improve should she make a deep run into week two.

Diana Shnaider (+8000)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 26-18 (16th)
• ATS: 24-18-2 (85th)
• Total: 21-21-2 (164th)

The dark horse of dark horses is Diana Shnaider, probably playing the best tennis in 2026 that no one is talking about. She has quietly won seven of 10 matches with her three losses coming to Pegula, Swiatek and Elena Rybakina. Let’s not forget her stellar run in Paris where she reached the semifinals only to lose to the buzzsaw that was Maja Chwalinksa. So there’s been a few bad breaks, along with tough losses against good opponents (sounds similar to how we described FAA above) but given a decent draw and some good luck – she is one to watch and circle as a potential sleeper to take, just not pre-tournament.

Sara Bejlek (+8000)

2026 Betting Stats

• Outright: 20-14 (29th)
• ATS: 22-12 (50th)
• Total: 11-22-1 (217th)

Our longshot for the women is Sara Bejlek, who people began to notice when she took out Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati. While her run in Ohio was impressive, this isn’t something new for Bejlek as she has thrived on the hard court surfaces this season. Three of her last four hard court losses have come to Gauff in the Cincinnati final, Swiatek and Clara Tauson – while her fourth loss came to eventual Prague champion Lilli Tagger. The event that gives us conviction in Bejlek’s hard court game was Abu Dhabi this season, where she won the event after going through qualifiers – while Cincinnati just adds to our confidence that she is a solid longshot to seriously consider.

2026 US Open Sleeper Best Bets: Alexandra Eala (+2800); Brandon Nakashima (+5000)

Photo Credit: REUTERS