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Best Bet: LVA +1.5 (105) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Aces 81, Valkyries 80
The Pick: Aces 81, Valkyries 80
We’ll take the Aces based on head-to-head data.
Game Betting Analysis
This is another tricky one, but we’ll side with the Aces spread here, avoiding the moneyline as a minus-valued underdog. The deciding factor, for us, is the head-to-head trends with Vegas winning and covering the spread in the last five meetings – winning outright in the last six meetings. That’s too grand to ignore, even though Vegas has a trend working against itself – which is seeing the favorite cover seven of eight games along with seeing the favorite win outright in 10 straight games. We typically move markets with data this perpendicular, but the total isn’t much better. The Under has hit in three of four meetings while Vegas has gone Over in eight of nine playoff games. With all this said, the six straight wins and five straight covers in head-to-head matchups seems to have the most velcro to it.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Aces vs. Valkyries Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Golden State’s League-Best Defense vs. A’ja’s Dominance Over the Valkyries
Golden State earned the No. 2 seed at 31-12 by leading the WNBA in defensive rating, a formula that got tested immediately in the first round, as the Valkyries needed a 16-point comeback in a decisive Game 3 to eliminate Dallas, with Gabby Williams scoring 17 of her 19 points in the second half to close it out. Kiah Stokes, who finished second in the league in blocks, figures to draw the primary defensive assignment on Las Vegas’s superstar, and she brings an unusual wrinkle to that job: she was A’ja Wilson’s backup during Las Vegas’s championship runs and knows her tendencies about as well as anyone in the league.
The problem is that even the league’s top defense hasn’t solved Wilson this season. The four-time MVP and reigning scoring champion at 26.2 points per game has been even more dominant against Golden State specifically, averaging 25 points and 12.7 rebounds on a 61.7% true shooting mark across all three regular-season meetings, every one of them a Las Vegas win despite Golden State finishing a game ahead in the standings. Wilson has only ramped up in the playoffs too, posting 32.0 points per game in Las Vegas’s first-round win over Indiana. Golden State has the better defensive pedigree and home court, but until it finds an answer for Wilson in the post, a perfect 0-3 head-to-head mark against her this year is a tough trend to bet against.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Network: NBC, Peacock
- Venue: Chase Center – 157.9 ppg; 11-13 O/U
- Series Score: Tied 0-0
Key Players
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson — Last Game: 36 points, 10 rebounds
- Jackie Young — Last Game: 18 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists
Golden State Valkyries
- Gabby Williams — Last Game: 19 points
- Veronica Burton — Last Game: 16 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
