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Best Bet: ATL -3.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Dream 92, Liberty 87
The Pick: Dream 92, Liberty 87
We’ll take the Dream’s ATS based on head-to-head and recent data, although road team data leaves conviction low.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a tricky one, but there is enough data to support Atlanta covering the spread and to continue its current winning streak. Although the road team has covered three straight meetings, Atlanta still holds a 6-2 ATS mark over the last eight meetings with New York. Atlanta has also won two of the last three meetings at home, along with four of six overall. We are handcuffed to the ATS market as there is not enough conviction in the total data for this one, as New York has hit the Under in its last six playoff games despite a 5-2 O/U record inside State Farm this season that has averaged 185.3 points per game.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Liberty vs. Dream Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Atlanta’s Switch to State Farm vs. Liberty’s White-Hot Finish
Atlanta finished 30-14, the East’s No. 1 seed and the second-best record in franchise history, with a half-season built around the deafening 3,500-seat Gateway Center Arena, the smallest venue in the WNBA. Game 1 shifts to State Farm Arena instead, the Hawks’ nearly 17,000-seat home that Atlanta used just six times in the regular season, a jump from only one game there in 2025. Angel Reese anchored a dominant season on the glass, while Rhyne Howard (20.5 ppg) and Allisha Gray (22.0 ppg) combined to overwhelm Washington in a first-round sweep with a 33-point combined margin.
New York, the No. 8 seed at 26-18, enters off the most stunning result of the playoffs so far, sweeping No. 1 seed Minnesota by a combined 32 points to become the first 8-seed in WNBA history to eliminate a 1-seed. That run is the product of a dramatic turnaround, the Liberty sat at 13-12 on July 18 before closing the year by winning 13 of their last 17, with Breanna Stewart (27.5 ppg vs. Minnesota) and Sabrina Ionescu (15.5 ppg, 6.5 apg) carrying the surge. The catch is that Atlanta already has this team’s number, winning two of three regular-season meetings, including back-to-back wins over New York on September 21 and 23. The question for Game 1 is whether trading Atlanta’s tiny, hostile gym for a much bigger, more neutral building gives a surging Liberty team room to finally flip that script.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC, ESPN+
- Venue: State Farm Arena – 185.3 ppg; 5-2 O/U
- Series Score: Tied 0-0
Key Players
New York Liberty
- Breanna Stewart — Last Game: 21 points, 5 rebounds
- Sabrina Ionescu — Last Game: 18 points, 7 assists
Atlanta Dream
- Allisha Gray — Last Game: 22 points
- Angel Reese — Last Game: 15 points, 7 rebounds
Photo Credit: REUTERS
