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An intriguing interconference matchup serves as this week’s slate-ending contest, with the Bills taking on the Vikings in a potential Super Bowl preview. Minnesota will be working without its starting quarterback, however, as Kyler Murray will sit out the game due to a hamstring injury.
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Without further ado, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Monday Night Football action. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Bills-Vikings Best NFL Week 9 Player Props
- Josh Allen Under 29.5 Pass Attempts
- James Cook Over 18.5 Rush Attempts
- T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Josh Allen Under Pass Attempts
Our first two props are tied together to great degree, and both stem from the fact the Vikings will have Carson Wentz and not Murray leading the offense Monday night. Wentz has been adequate but certainly not a player that’s consistently threatened defenses when leading Minnesota’s offense in the last couple of seasons, which means we’re unlikely to see Allen have to shift into “Super Josh” mode through the air.
Head coach Joe Brady, Allen’s former offensive coordinator, has been judicious much like the departed Sean McDermott was in terms of how aggressive he deploys Allen. It was largely depends on game scenario, and this is a game Brady is likely going to approach as one that Buffalo should have a relatively good chance of controlling once things get settled.
As such, we could see Allen fall under 30 pass attempts for the fourth time already this season. The Vikings are one of the league’s most aggressive defenses and have collected the second-most sacks (25) entering Week 9. Additionally, Minnesota has been relatively generous against the run (more on that next), and the combination of that vulnerability and the expected game script points toward a lower-volume game through the air for Allen in an effort to also protect him.
Original Line Publish: 29.5
James Cook Over Rush Attempts
Allen’s narrative leads us straight to Cook, who’s been a workhorse over the last three games while averaging 22.7 rush attempts per contest in that span. For the season, Cook has recorded 21 or more carries on five occasions, and as explained in Allen’s entry, this shapes up as another busy day for him if things play out in the likeliest fashion.
The stellar production Cook typically churns out with his opportunities naturally encourages Brady to keep feeding him as well, and there should be opportunities for some productive runs based on the on-paper matchup. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-highest yards per rush attempt of any team at home (4.7), as well as 4.9 overall in the last three games.
Minnesota has also faced an elevated 52.4% rush play rate in the last three games, and if Wentz is unable to consistently move the Vikes down the field, Cook could be in for solid usage again.
Original Line: 18.5
T.J. Hockenson Over Receiving Yards
Having painted a relatively modest outlook for the Vikings’ offense over the first two props, we’ll still turn to one of Wentz’s pass catchers for our third and final bet. While consistency and chunk plays may be somewhat of a challenge for Wentz, Hockenson could certainly be one of the veteran backup quarterback’s favorite targets.
Hockenson already comes into Monday night running hot, having produced a 22-219-2 line over the last four games even when factoring in a one-catch dud against the Saints in Week 5. Hockenson otherwise has between 35 and 119 receiving yards in the other three games in the sample, going 2-1 to the Over in that span. The Bilsl also haven’t been very effective against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (494) to the position entering Week 9, along with 11.5 yards per reception.
Original Line: 39.5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
